Wiki states that people of Irish ancestry number 80 million. My question is what would Ireland look like if there was not any kind of troubles she had that forced her people in emigration, Potato Famine especially. Would she, as a whole island, have population numbering in tens of millions or...? Any chance of seeing a 21st cent Celtic version of England, island nation with 45 -50 mil people?
WI no Irish emigration waves ?
- Thread starter Grumpy young Man
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The Island is rather small to support that sort of population. It would probably be a less stable and starving.
Are you familiar with Malthus theories?
This is perhaps one of the best examples of what he said.
This is perhaps one of the best examples of what he said.
I am, and main criticism of his model that basically shakes its foundations to its core is that he wasn't aware that rate of technological progress of food production has an ever higher rate than that of the rate of humanities growth.
The thing with Ireland is that by the time of the immigrations it had reached a point where it simply did'nt have the resources to sustain large populations like other countries in similar situations could.
Of course, the whole quasi-racist, social darwinist attitude of the British government at the time did'nt help things either.
Of course, the whole quasi-racist, social darwinist attitude of the British government at the time did'nt help things either.
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Ignoring how precisely Irish Emmigration is going to be handwaved it will have very interesting effects on the development of Ireland, Britain and America, and not just in the expected ways. For example for much of the 18th century three quarters of Irish emmigrants to the United States were Protestants: the demographic effects of a larger Protestant population in Ulster could be interesting for any future partition of Ireland, provided we assume that the association of Protestantism with Unionism and Catholicism with Unionism isn't butterflied away. The lack of Irish emmigration would also reduce the populations of England and Scotland: about 10% of the British population has an Irish grandparent due to the traditional habit of going to England for work, and the Irish links of parts of Scotland like Glasgow are well established. And of course the political development of North America would be interesting: hundreds of thousands of Irish emmigrated to the colonies in the eighteenth century and many US presidents (such as Jackson, JFK and Obama) were descended from Irish immigrants. Then there's the sizeable Irish populations in Australia and New Zealand (where people still go for work) as well as Canada and Argentina of all places (where some Patagonian communities allegedly still speak with County Mayo accents 
)
Ireland's not going to get a population the size of England's, as others have stated it hasn't the resources, but it could have a larger one today (after all the Irish population is still lower than its pre-famine levels). The higher population might lead to a more spread out Irish population, whereas today half of the island's population is in the Belfast to Dublin corridor along the east coast. Of couse the lack of emmigration will likely lead to more famines...
)Ireland's not going to get a population the size of England's, as others have stated it hasn't the resources, but it could have a larger one today (after all the Irish population is still lower than its pre-famine levels). The higher population might lead to a more spread out Irish population, whereas today half of the island's population is in the Belfast to Dublin corridor along the east coast. Of couse the lack of emmigration will likely lead to more famines...
talking about the effect on other countries without irish immigration, according to some numbers I saw, roughly 40% of Quebec's population has irish ancestry.
"A man who is born into a world already possessed, if he cannot get subsistence from his parents on whom he has a just demand, and if the society do not want his labour, has no claim of right to the smallest portion of food, and, in fact, has no business to be where he is. At nature's mighty feast there is no vacant cover for him. She tells him to be gone, and will quickly execute her own orders, if he does not work upon the compassion of some of her guests. If these guests get up and make room for him, other intruders immediately appear demanding the same favour. The report of a provision for all that come, fills the hall with numerous claimants. The order and harmony of the feast is disturbed, the plenty that before reigned is changed into scarcity; and the happiness of the guests is destroyed by the spectacle of misery and dependence in every part of the hall, and by the clamorous importunity of those, who are justly enraged at not finding the provision which they had been taught to expect. The guests learn too late their error, in counter-acting those strict orders to all intruders, issued by the great mistress of the feast, who, wishing that all guests should have plenty, and knowing she could not provide for unlimited numbers, humanely refused to admit fresh comers when her table was already full."
As I see it, this means that either he leaves or he starves. If we have many people in the same situation, and they don't leave, then we have starvation.
There were already too many people in Ireland. Something like the Potato Famine was going to happen sooner or later.
As I see it, this means that either he leaves or he starves. If we have many people in the same situation, and they don't leave, then we have starvation.
There were already too many people in Ireland. Something like the Potato Famine was going to happen sooner or later.
If there is no emmigration that Eire would need to develop itself a lot more to sustain its population and would probably need to import food. But in that situation many Irish would head for better shores for new opportunities. If that emmigration is halted to later on then they may well go to different locations than in OTL.
It doesn't work like that.
Ireland has a certain # that we don't know and can only guess at, where enough food can be produced to sustain population n. Even though there are 80 million people of claimed Irish descent today, that doesn't mean the island could (a) support that # and (b) had they not migrated, would have that number. Consider that many Irish migrants would be intermarrying with people from other parts of Ireland where they may not have had a chance to, that within a few generations they would also be able to mate with people of whom they would've never been able to meet in Ireland (Poles, Germans, etc.) Normally if you had too many kids and couldn't support them, they'd just die- but the Americans provided opportunities for them to go overseas and expand outside of the often small and ghettoized Irish communities in Ireland of the time.
That population surplus even brought us to the modern Irish diaspora, who are different from the Irish population in Ireland. Had there never been a potato famine it's possible the surplus could've even been larger, and the Irish might've moved less en masse and more steady over time, so a larger footprint would be seen in America. Or possibly they would've migrated less, and the island might be generally more Irish period, with somewhere closer to 7-8 million people (or more?)
Ireland has a certain # that we don't know and can only guess at, where enough food can be produced to sustain population n. Even though there are 80 million people of claimed Irish descent today, that doesn't mean the island could (a) support that # and (b) had they not migrated, would have that number. Consider that many Irish migrants would be intermarrying with people from other parts of Ireland where they may not have had a chance to, that within a few generations they would also be able to mate with people of whom they would've never been able to meet in Ireland (Poles, Germans, etc.) Normally if you had too many kids and couldn't support them, they'd just die- but the Americans provided opportunities for them to go overseas and expand outside of the often small and ghettoized Irish communities in Ireland of the time.
That population surplus even brought us to the modern Irish diaspora, who are different from the Irish population in Ireland. Had there never been a potato famine it's possible the surplus could've even been larger, and the Irish might've moved less en masse and more steady over time, so a larger footprint would be seen in America. Or possibly they would've migrated less, and the island might be generally more Irish period, with somewhere closer to 7-8 million people (or more?)
The waves of Irish emigration were largely due to the large population that had been heavily squeezed by land seizures, living as tenant farmers on marginal land, combined with mercantilist policies and an absentee-landlord culture that combined to prevent a commercial/industrial economy from developing to lift the population out of poverty. Remember that even at the height of the Irish potato famine, Ireland was still a net exporter of food as a consequence of the Corn Laws.
To get rid of the Irish diaspora, you've got an early POD option and a late POD option.
The former would try to keep Irish land largely in the hands of the old Norman-Irish and Celtic-Irish aristocracy as originally envisioned under the Tudor surrender-and-regrant policy (which integrated the existing aristocracy and land-ownership patterns into a Common Law nobility framework). Settle O'Neill's rebellion in 1603 in a way that both sides can live with (averting the Flight of the Earls and Ulster Plantation), and butterfly away the Irish Confederation and the subsequent Cromwellian conquest, and you may be able to get Ireland integrated into the UK with a much more equal status, so Ireland would benefit along with England from the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the British Empire. Obviously, butterflies from this would be enormous, but one thing we'd probably see would be much more emigration from Scotland directly to the American colonies: no Ulster Plantation means no Scotch-Irish as such, and also that poor Scottish Lowlanders looking for available land to colonize would have to go directly to America rather than having seized Irish lands.
Late POD would be for Classical economics and Liberal politics to catch on faster, so Britain adopts free trade policies in the early 1800s and the Corn Laws and other protectionist policies are either never passed or are repealed before the potato famine, so Ireland can start industrializing sooner and will be able to feed itself from imports when the potato famine strikes.
To get rid of the Irish diaspora, you've got an early POD option and a late POD option.
The former would try to keep Irish land largely in the hands of the old Norman-Irish and Celtic-Irish aristocracy as originally envisioned under the Tudor surrender-and-regrant policy (which integrated the existing aristocracy and land-ownership patterns into a Common Law nobility framework). Settle O'Neill's rebellion in 1603 in a way that both sides can live with (averting the Flight of the Earls and Ulster Plantation), and butterfly away the Irish Confederation and the subsequent Cromwellian conquest, and you may be able to get Ireland integrated into the UK with a much more equal status, so Ireland would benefit along with England from the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the British Empire. Obviously, butterflies from this would be enormous, but one thing we'd probably see would be much more emigration from Scotland directly to the American colonies: no Ulster Plantation means no Scotch-Irish as such, and also that poor Scottish Lowlanders looking for available land to colonize would have to go directly to America rather than having seized Irish lands.
Late POD would be for Classical economics and Liberal politics to catch on faster, so Britain adopts free trade policies in the early 1800s and the Corn Laws and other protectionist policies are either never passed or are repealed before the potato famine, so Ireland can start industrializing sooner and will be able to feed itself from imports when the potato famine strikes.
Basically, Irishmen will have to work in something else than the fields that can make them earn enough money to buy food from somewhere else, and that way keep growing. Like UK do nowdays.
Now, what can the Irish work on in Ireland, that can't be done cheaper and easier somewhere else? They don't have good mineral sources to make for heavy industry, they don't have big rivers to at least use water power.
If only the Irish sold clovers as amulets... all their problems would have dissapeared
Now, what can the Irish work on in Ireland, that can't be done cheaper and easier somewhere else? They don't have good mineral sources to make for heavy industry, they don't have big rivers to at least use water power.
If only the Irish sold clovers as amulets... all their problems would have dissapeared