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The Iraq was largely driven by figures from within the Bush Administration who had both a material incentive as well as ideological vision for the Middle-East. There was nothing necessary about the war, and the conflict caused enormous damage to both the Republican party establishment as well as the body politics of the US. Future historians will almost certainly see it as a watershed moment in decline of the post-cold war American global hegemony.

What if the US never invades Iraq? Let's say in 2002 Vice President Cheney, Sec.Defense Rumsfield, Paul Wolfowitz and a number of the other members of the Neonconservative wing of the White house are killed in a limo accident. Official government reports point to a series of low probability events occurring simultaneously which caused the accident. Though conspiracy theories are par with the JFK assassinations ranging from an Al-Qaeda attack to an attempted coup in Washington are accepted by large percentage of the population.

Let's say this derails the Bush Administration enough that they never take the opportunity to invade in 2003. What happens afterwards? While there's no evidence Iraq had a nuclear program Iran did pause its program in 2003 due to the invasion. Is there another Iran-Iraq war at some point? Does the Republican party stay closer to the center, is America less polarized? Is there a successful pivot to Asia? Does America avoid the populist wave starting in 2010? Do Obama and Trump still get as far as they did in politics?
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