Saddam would've been wise to avoid war with Iran, but he still might've gone after theoretically weaker prey, like Kuwait and KSA
Admittedly, the geography and infrastructure make Saudi Arabia a difficult place to invade unless you're intimately familiar with travel routes and safe oases, and the number of tribes still living in the region make for ready-made guerillas.'Weaker prey'.
Saudi Arabia is twice the size of Iraq. Any invasion of Saudi Arabia would be doomed to fail simply because of the nation's size and landscape, which is mostly just desert with a few cities and oil fields here and there. Also, attacking the country where the two most holiest places in Islam exist is bound to rifle a few feathers in the jihadist community, so we could see people following Al-Qaeda take part in the conflict against Iraq.
Aside from that, what could be the casus belli for a invasion of Saudi Arabia? For Iran, it was the fear of the Islamic Revolution spreading to Iraq's Shia majority.
Plus, Iraq doesn't need to take all of Saudi Arabia; just the west coastline where 80% of Saudi Arabia's oil is.
That... is sad but true. He was prone to overreaching himself.To us, that is logical, but I doubt Saddam Hussein would rest for anything less than the destruction of the Western-aligned Saudi monarchy. The Iraqi government believed in the conspiracy theory that Wahhabism was a false ideology created by the British to create division within Islam.
The following report was compiled in 2002 by a Iraqi military officer, but I wouldn't be surprised if the government held these beliefs in the 1980s. The Birth of Al-Wahabi Movement and It's Historic Roots
Though one can argue that without the massive oil revenue, the Saudi government is going to collapse pretty quickly, since the whole system is dependent on the welfare and housing provided to the people and the upkeep for the thriftiness of the Royal Family.
best way to neutralize saudi arabia militarily would be to manufacture a crisis in Yemen and/or their eastern provinces /Bahrain or U.A.E'Weaker prey'.
Saudi Arabia is twice the size of Iraq. Any invasion of Saudi Arabia would be doomed to fail simply because of the nation's size and landscape, which is mostly just desert with a few cities and oil fields here and there. Also, attacking the country where the two most holiest places in Islam exist is bound to rifle a few feathers in the jihadist community, so we could see people following Al-Qaeda take part in the conflict against Iraq.
Aside from that, what could be the casus belli for a invasion of Saudi Arabia? For Iran, it was the fear of the Islamic Revolution spreading to Iraq's Shia majority.
probably not so good for Iran.
The Iraqis would roll right over it. Also, while the invasion of the Arabian peninsula could set off every jihadist in the world, it can also be argued that the Saudi regime is corrupt and decadent, so while they are the Custodians of the Holy Cities, they're not Islamic ideals themselves.
Plus, Iraq doesn't need to take all of Saudi Arabia; just the west coastline where 80% of Saudi Arabia's oil is.
Of course, the biggest counterpoint is that nobody would take this massive upheaval to the oil supply lying down, so I suspect some sort of angry response from the West, as well as anger and disgust in Arab circles as Iraq invades another Arab country for no reason.
...
Plus, Iraq doesn't need to take all of Saudi Arabia; just the west coastline where 80% of Saudi Arabia's oil is. ...
Of course, the biggest counterpoint is that nobody would take this massive upheaval to the oil supply lying down, so I suspect some sort of angry response from the West, as well as anger and disgust in Arab circles as Iraq invades another Arab country for no reason.
'Weaker prey'.
Saudi Arabia is twice the size of Iraq. Any invasion of Saudi Arabia would be doomed to fail simply because of the nation's size and landscape, which is mostly just desert with a few cities and oil fields here and there. Also, attacking the country where the two most holiest places in Islam exist is bound to rifle a few feathers in the jihadist community, so we could see people following Al-Qaeda take part in the conflict against Iraq.
::smacks self::Actually the east coastline.But while that area would've been a pretty easy target and all that was needed from an economic point of view, the Iraqis would be well-advised to try to deny Western powers access to Saudi bases and ports, thereby precluding an operation desert shield. It would've been tough, of course, to take enough of KSA for that. The east coast, Riyahd and Jeddah might do it, if that was possible.
It takes longer for the new Islamic government in Tehran to find it's feet and unify the people behind them. Saddam hoped that the Iranian people would be too splintered and disorganized to offer any opposition to his invasion. In reality, his invasion created a cause for the Iranian people to rally around and effectively legitimized the Ayatollah's regime in the eyes of many Iranians.
Assuming the government lasts long enough. If the Ayatollah’s regime screws up, I can picture them being out of power by like the 2000s I thinks
I could see that happening. Maybe the Green Movement succeeds in knocking out the Ayatollah's government?