WI: No Iranian revolution happened?

The Imperial Iranian Army would have 2000 Challenger 1 main battle tanks, supported by hundreds of older M60 Patton and Chieftain tanks, as well as hundreds of M551 Sheridan, FV101 Scorpion, and BMP-1 light tanks. Thousands of M113 and BTR-40, BTR-50, and BTR-60 vehicles would be in service as APCs and IFVs.Faramarz).
Where do the 2000 Challenger 1 tanks get built?

They didn't enter service until 1983 and only 420 had been built by 1990:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Challenger_1

So where does this extra capacity come from to build all these extra ships and tanks by 1985?
I can't answer the question about the ships, but I can answer the question about the tanks. For a start it's not 2,000 Challeger 1 MBTs, it's 1,350 MBTs comprising 125 Shir 1 and 1,225 Shir 2, which reduces the amount of capacity that has to be found.

Prior to the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War the Iranian Army had the following main battle tanks:
707 Chieftain Mk 3/3P and Chieftain Mk 5/5P - These were ordered in 1971 and all were delivered by the end of 1978
187 Improved Chieftains - Foss does not say when they were delivered but my guess is by the end of 1978
460 M60A1
400 M47
240 M48​

In addition to the 894 Chieftains and Improved Chieftains built for Iran in the 1970s another 165 Chieftains were built for Kuwait. These were ordered in the late 1970s and delivered by the end of 1979.

That is, according to Jane's Main Battle Tanks, Second Edition, by Christopher F. Foss, published in 1986.

The entry on the Jordanian Khalid MBT says that...
In December 1974 Iran ordered 125 Shir 1 (FV4030/2) or FV4033 and 1,225 Shir 2 (FV4030/3) or FV4033 MBTs, but that the order was cancelled by the new Iranian Government in February 1979. The first three FV4030/2 prototypes were completed in January 1977. By this time production of the FV4030/2 was well under way at the Royal Ordnance Leeds with the first production tanks scheduled for delivery in 1980.

In November 1978 Jordan placed an order with the United Kingdom for 278 Khalid MBTs worth £275 million for delivery from 1981.

Further development of the Shir 2 (FV4030/3 resulted in the Challenger MBT, which entered service with the British Army in 1983.
He also wrote that the Khalid is essentially the FV4030/2 with minor modifications to suit Jordanian requirements and is based on a late production Chieftain with major changes in the fire-control system and powerpack. And that the Challenger (not Challenger 1 in 1986 because there was as yet no Challenger 2) was essentially the FV4020/3 (Shir 2) modified to suit the requirements of the British Army.

The entry on Challenger 1 says that the order for the first order was for 243 Challenger 1 tanks, which was sufficient to equip four regiments. The order was announced in Parliament in July 1980 and the first of these was handed over to the British Army by the Royal Ordnance Leeds in March 1983. The second order was placed in June 1984. This was for 64 tanks, sufficient to equip a fifth regiment in BAOR. A third order for 18 MBTs was placed between then and the publication of the book and the actual size of the regiments had been reduced.

Therefore, the total number of Challenger 1 MBTs ordered for the British Army to early 1986 was 315 (243+64+18).

By 1987 it was expected that six of the 12 armoured regiments in BAOR would have the Challenger with the remaining regiments equipped with the Chieftain. Some sources believed that further Challengers would be ordered for a further 3 to be equipped with the Challenger.

According to Jane's Armour and Artillery 1995-96 the fourth (and final) order for Challenger 1s was placed in July 1986 and was for 76 tanks, which brought the total ordered up to 401, but like you this book says that 420 were built, so I don't know where the other 19 came from. However, it does say that 17 Challenger 1 Driver Training Tanks were ordered in February 1988 and that 80 Challenger ARRV were ordered in 3 batches (30+47+3) between 1985 and 1990.

It also says that the first order for Chieftains was placed in September 1978, not July 1980; that 143 were delivered to Kuwait, not 165; and that Jordan ordered 274 Khalids in November 1979, not 278 in November 1978. On the subject of Chieftain derivatives, it says that Iran received 14 AVLB and 41 ARV of 73 ordered, which makes me think that the 30 Chieftain ARVs delivered to Kuwait may have originally been ordered by Iran.

To conclude, the reason why only 420 Challenger 1 MBTs were delivered between 1983 and 1990 wasn't due to a shortage of capacity at the UK's tank factories (ROF Leeds and Vickers, Elswick). It was a lack of money. If the British economy had been performing better in the 1980s I'm positive that at least 840 Challenger 1 MBTs (plus 34 driver training tanks and 160 ARRV) would have been ordered between 1980 and 1986 to allow a near one-to-one replacement of the British Army's Chieftain MBTs.

I also think that ROF Leeds and Vickers, Elswick could have delivered the 1,350 Shirs to Iran between 1980 and 1985. The Jordanians might have had to wait a bit a year or two longer for their Khalids and the British Army might have had to wait a year or two longer for their Challenger 1s. However, when they did come, they would be delivered at a faster rate.

1,350 Shirs, 278 Khalids and 420 Challenger 1 tanks comes to a total of 2,048 tanks, compared to the 698 tanks that were actually built. This might reduce the unit cost of the Challenger through economies of scale.
 
4 Kidd class-destroyers (Kouroush,Daryush,Nader and Anoshirvan).
6 Spruance class-destroyers.
Are you sure that there were 4 Kidds and 6 Spruances? I think that you have counted them twice.

Iran ordered six Spruance class armed with the Standard ER SAM instead of Sea Sparrow with the US Navy in 1974. They were to be named after the emperors Kouroush, Daryush, Ardeshir, Nader, Shapur and Anoshirvan. The Iranian Navy planned to classify them as cruisers.

However, two (Ardeshir and Shapur) were cancelled in June 1976 before the order from Ingalls Shipbuilding Corp for the remaining four was issued on 23rd April 1978. The four remaining ships were cancelled in February and March 1979, but they were officially acquired by the USN on 25th July 1979 and became the Kidd class.

My source is Conway's All The World's Fighting Ships 1947-95.
 
Are you sure that there were 4 Kidds and 6 Spruances? I think that you have counted them twice.

Iran ordered six Spruance class armed with the Standard ER SAM instead of Sea Sparrow with the US Navy in 1974. They were to be named after the emperors Kouroush, Daryush, Ardeshir, Nader, Shapur and Anoshirvan. The Iranian Navy planned to classify them as cruisers.

However, two (Ardeshir and Shapur) were cancelled in June 1976 before the order from Ingalls Shipbuilding Corp for the remaining four was issued on 23rd April 1978. The four remaining ships were cancelled in February and March 1979, but they were officially acquired by the USN on 25th July 1979 and became the Kidd class.

My source is Conway's All The World's Fighting Ships 1947-95.
Seems you might be right, it should be for the Spruance-class destroyer according to its Wiki article: Four additional ships were built originally for the Iranian Navy with the Mark 26/Standard AAW missile system who became the Kidd in US Navy service.
 
Imperial Iranian Navy

The Imperial Iranian Navy would also be very well equipped:
light aircraft carriers
3 Invincible-class aircraft carriers.​
Cruisers
2 Ticonderoga class-cruisers
9 Belknap class-cruisers​
Destroyers
4 Kidd class-destroyers (Kouroush,Daryush,Nader and Anoshirvan).
6 Spruance class-destroyers
6 Type 42 class-destroyers
2 Allen M. Sumner class-destroyers (Babr and Palang).
1 Battle class-destroyers (Artemiz).​
Frigates
8 Kortenaer class-frigates
10 Knox class-frigates
4 Alvand class-frigates (Saam,Zaal,Rostam and Faramarz).​
Corvettes
8 Bayandor class-corvettes (Bayandor, Naghdi, Milanian and Kahnamoie).
6 Grisha class-corvettes​
Submarines
6 Type 209 class-submarines
6 Type 206 class-submarines
3 Tang class-submarines​
Amphibious assault ships
2 Tarawa class-amphibious assault ships
2 Iwo Jima class-amphibious assault ships​
Fast attack craft
12 La Combattante IIa class-fast attack craft
16 Osa class-fast attack craft.​
A lot of that looks wrong to me.

Light Aircraft Carriers

AFAIK the Shah wanted to buy 2 Invincibles in the 1970s, but this aspiration had been abandoned before the Revolution. If there had been no revolution in February 1979 and the plan had been revived later they would have been delivered in the second half of the 1980s. I also guess that they would have been "Improved Invincibles" with a larger hull and more powerful Olympus gas turbines to attain the same maximum speed.

Cruisers

I know of no plan for the acquisition of 2 Tinconderogas. Do you have a source for this? I'm not sure that the USA would have been prepared to export Aegis in the 1970s. However, it's probable that the Kidd class could have been fitted with Aegis. Had there been no revolution they might have received Aegis when they had their first big refit, which I guess would have been around 1990.

I haven't heard of the plan to buy 9 Belknap class cruisers before either. The last of the nine Belknap class cruisers built IOTL was completed in 1967 and AFAIK they weren't for sale in the 1970s and weren't due to be replaced until the 1990s. I don't see the point in Iran ordering nine new ships. If they were going to order nine new large destroyers/cruisers they would have ordered more Spruance derivatives, i.e. Kidds and Tinconderogas.

Destroyers

I have already explained that Iran ordered six Spruances armed with the Standard ER missile in 1974, cut the order to two in 1976 and cancelled the remainder in 1979, which were taken over by the USN as the Kidd class.

Have you a source on the 6 Type 42s? I haven't heard of them before. Could it be that the Shah considered buying 6 Type 42s, but bought the 6 Improved Spruances instead?

Frigates

What is your source on the 10 Knox class? I haven't heard of them before. In common with the Belknap class cruisers the design was out of production. If Iran was going to buy 10 frigates from the USA, they would have bought 10 Perry class patrol frigates as that was the class that succeeded the Knox. Could it have been that the Iranian Government thought of buying 10 frigates from the USA, but decided to buy the Kortanaer class instead?

Conway's 1947-95 says that 12 NATO Standard type guided missile frigates were ordered in 1978 and cancelled in 1979. Four were to be built in Germany by Bremer-Vulcan and eight in the Netherlands by Rhine-Schelde-Verolme. They had the same machinery as the Type 122 rather than the Kortanaer. The armament and electronics were also different.

Corvettes

Only 4 Bayandor class-corvettes (Bayandor, Naghdi, Milanian and Kahnamoie) were built, not 8. Do you have a source for the 6 Grisha class.

Submarines

Conway's says that there was a plan to transfer 3 of the US Navy's Tang class to Iran, but that was frustrated by the revolution. It also says that 6 Type 209 class were ordered in March 1978 and cancelled early in 1979. When the ships were ordered the plan was to launch the first one in April 1981 and deliver all 3 by the end of 1983.

However, where did you get the 6 Type 206 from? I reckon that it's a typo for 6 Type 209 and therefore that they have been counted twice.

Amphibious assault ships
2 Tarawa class-amphibious assault ships
2 Iwo Jima class-amphibious assault ships​

Are these alternatives to buying 2 Invincibles? In that case it would been 2 Invincibles or 2 Tarawas or 2 Iwo Jimas and therefore have been treble counted. If the Imperial Iranian Navy really wanted 2 or 3 Invincibles and 4 LPH/LHA type amphibious assault ships it would have ordered 4 Tarawas or 4 Iwo Jimas.

Fast attack craft

I know about the 12 La Combattante IIa class-fast attack craft, that were built in the 1970s, but don't know about plans to buy 16 Osa class-fast attack craft. It would have been more logical to buy more FACs from France or West Germany.
 
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obviously huge differences. No hostage crisis, no Iran/Iraq war (followed by Gulf War I and II), no US troops in SA, no 9/11. But I have to wonder just how long the Shah (and presumably his son/successor) can keep the lid on things... he was enormously unpopular...
What could have realistically done to make himself more popular or at least less unpopular in the years leading up to the revolution? NB he can't abdicate.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
What in god's name did he want all that for? Was he just really concerned about the Soviets? Or was it all just ego?
Soviets had no designs on Iran by 1970s but if they see a huge superpower taking shape next to their soft underbelly , they would be understandably concerned
Just imagine USA reaction if 6 regiments of migs were bought by mexico ?
 
The Shah's military was way oversized as it was, and the expense was a contributing factor to the revolution. The Shah's Iran was sort of sub-contracted to take the role of Gulf policeman that Britain was getting out of in the '70s ('60s?). I wrote an undergrad essay on this in university. A quote I remember from my source material was "Some men go to bed with Playboy. The Shah goes to bed with Aviation Week and Space Technology. And when he sees something he likes he says buy it."
 
Fast attack craft

I know about the 12 La Combattante IIa class-fast attack craft, that were built in the 1970s, but don't know about plans to buy 16 Osa class-fast attack craft. It would have been more logical to buy more FACs from France or West Germany.
For missile boats, the Shah could have gone Israeli as well. Israel demonstrated its domestic missiles and boats quite convincingly in '73, and the Shah had good relations with them. Israel is happy to sell military hardware for cash.
 
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