What would be the effects on Portugal if there was no Iberian Union? What would her empire be like?
No diversion of Portuguese resources to fund Philip II's attempt to pacify the Dutch, for one.
No Dutch and English plunder of the Portuguese Empire. They can still compete with the Portuguese but as there won't be such an obvious casus belli (being united with their enemy Spain) the escalation of conflicts will be more gradual.
No doubt the Portuguese Empire was already in decline but I believe that that decline wouldn't accelerate that much without this enormous bullseye that was being united with Everyone's-Enemy-Spain.Actually except for the case of the Spanish Armada (where several of the ships sent against England were Portuguese) during the reign of Philip II few of the resources of Portugal were used to finnance Spanish actions, as Philip II kept his promise of leaving the administration of Portugal separated from Madrid. It was during Philip III and Philip IV that this policy was changed.
I always have doubts about this idea. Even before the Iberian Union the Portuguese Empire was overstretched and Lisbon was facing deep problems to run it. It would still be a tempting target, and at that time there was no need of a clear casus belli to try to take pieces of it - as France Antarctique had shown.
No doubt the Portuguese Empire was already in decline but I believe that that decline wouldn't accelerate that much without this enormous bullseye that was being united with Everyone's-Enemy-Spain.
IOTL the English didn't take much territory from Portugal during the Iberian Union but resorted to extensive corsair attacks. If Portuguese-English relations remain amicable I doubt they'd do that so openly.
And the Dutch were busy in their independence struggle against Spain and I doubt they'll be willing to get yet another enemy... at least early on.
It's true. If Sebastião doesn't go to Alcácer-Quibir, TTL Portuguese Empire could fare better, if he goes and somehow Portugal remains independent... things are not going to pretty.Well, in the end it all depends on how exactly Portugal keep its independence. If the government is seen as a Spanish ally they would still be target of Spain's enemies. If not, then there wouldn't be official attacks.
I too believe that's a given.But I can still see Dutch and English traders breaking the Portuguese monopoly over the Asian commerce.
Yeah, weird thing about those days...After all, at those times peace between two nations in Europe didn't exactly translate into peace between them everywhere else.
I most certainly am!BTW, you might be interested in the TL I wrote about this subject (the link is in my signature).![]()
It's true. If Sebastião doesn't go to Alcácer-Quibir, TTL Portuguese Empire could fare better, if he goes and somehow Portugal remains independent... things are not going to pretty.
Nevermind that Sebastian is, to put it simply, nuts.
Imagine that he doesn't go to Morocco, but to India as he originally planned. He could survive for years warring a campaign there, but meanwhile Portugal is effectively running without a king, which would then cause a political struggle among the Portuguese nobles about who's in charge. Other countries might look then at this and conclude that Portugal is weak and rip for the taking.
And if Sebastiao actually managed to TAKE Morocco? I know it's a stretch, and keeping the place would be a mammoth task anyway. But still...
He could have taken coastal cities as the Portuguese had done before, but the countryside is simply impossible. Also, remeber that he didn't want to take Morocco. The whole war was caused by the attempt to install the deposed Abu Abdallah Mohammed II back in the Moroccan throne. The former sultan promised him some coastal towns in exchange for his help, and so Sebastian accepted.
He could have taken coastal cities as the Portuguese had done before, but the countryside is simply impossible. Also, remeber that he didn't want to take Morocco. The whole war was caused by the attempt to install the deposed Abu Abdallah Mohammed II back in the Moroccan throne. The former sultan promised him some coastal towns in exchange for his help, and so Sebastian accepted.
Well, I meant achieving success in the expedition. I suppose that installing a puppet there and reinforcing direct presence is tantamount to take it, provided that mediated control can be kept in place.
So what if he managed that? Was the Portuguese candidate at all viable? And how invested in Morocco were the turks?