WI: No Iberian Union

No Dutch and English plunder of the Portuguese Empire. They can still compete with the Portuguese but as there won't be such an obvious casus belli (being united with their enemy Spain) the escalation of conflicts will be more gradual.
 
No diversion of Portuguese resources to fund Philip II's attempt to pacify the Dutch, for one.

Actually except for the case of the Spanish Armada (where several of the ships sent against England were Portuguese) during the reign of Philip II few of the resources of Portugal were used to finnance Spanish actions, as Philip II kept his promise of leaving the administration of Portugal separated from Madrid. It was during Philip III and Philip IV that this policy was changed.

No Dutch and English plunder of the Portuguese Empire. They can still compete with the Portuguese but as there won't be such an obvious casus belli (being united with their enemy Spain) the escalation of conflicts will be more gradual.

I always have doubts about this idea. Even before the Iberian Union the Portuguese Empire was overstretched and Lisbon was facing deep problems to run it. It would still be a tempting target, and at that time there was no need of a clear casus belli to try to take pieces of it - as France Antarctique had shown.
 
Actually except for the case of the Spanish Armada (where several of the ships sent against England were Portuguese) during the reign of Philip II few of the resources of Portugal were used to finnance Spanish actions, as Philip II kept his promise of leaving the administration of Portugal separated from Madrid. It was during Philip III and Philip IV that this policy was changed.



I always have doubts about this idea. Even before the Iberian Union the Portuguese Empire was overstretched and Lisbon was facing deep problems to run it. It would still be a tempting target, and at that time there was no need of a clear casus belli to try to take pieces of it - as France Antarctique had shown.
No doubt the Portuguese Empire was already in decline but I believe that that decline wouldn't accelerate that much without this enormous bullseye that was being united with Everyone's-Enemy-Spain.
IOTL the English didn't take much territory from Portugal during the Iberian Union but resorted to extensive corsair attacks. If Portuguese-English relations remain amicable I doubt they'd do that so openly.
And the Dutch were busy in their independence struggle against Spain and I doubt they'll be willing to get yet another enemy... at least early on.
 
No doubt the Portuguese Empire was already in decline but I believe that that decline wouldn't accelerate that much without this enormous bullseye that was being united with Everyone's-Enemy-Spain.
IOTL the English didn't take much territory from Portugal during the Iberian Union but resorted to extensive corsair attacks. If Portuguese-English relations remain amicable I doubt they'd do that so openly.
And the Dutch were busy in their independence struggle against Spain and I doubt they'll be willing to get yet another enemy... at least early on.

Well, in the end it all depends on how exactly Portugal keep its independence. If the government is seen as a Spanish ally they would still be target of Spain's enemies. If not, then there wouldn't be official attacks. But I can still see Dutch and English traders breaking the Portuguese monopoly over the Asian commerce. After all, at those times peace between two nations in Europe didn't exactly translate into peace between them everywhere else.

BTW, you might be interested in the TL I wrote about this subject (the link is in my signature).;)
 
Well, in the end it all depends on how exactly Portugal keep its independence. If the government is seen as a Spanish ally they would still be target of Spain's enemies. If not, then there wouldn't be official attacks.
It's true. If Sebastião doesn't go to Alcácer-Quibir, TTL Portuguese Empire could fare better, if he goes and somehow Portugal remains independent... things are not going to pretty.
Anyway, the Bandeirantes thirst to go inland could still exist and if the Portuguese aren't able to contain them there will be troubles with Spain.

But I can still see Dutch and English traders breaking the Portuguese monopoly over the Asian commerce.
I too believe that's a given.

After all, at those times peace between two nations in Europe didn't exactly translate into peace between them everywhere else.
Yeah, weird thing about those days...
 
It's true. If Sebastião doesn't go to Alcácer-Quibir, TTL Portuguese Empire could fare better, if he goes and somehow Portugal remains independent... things are not going to pretty.

Nevermind that Sebastian is, to put it simply, nuts.

Imagine that he doesn't go to Morocco, but to India as he originally planned. He could survive for years warring a campaign there, but meanwhile Portugal is effectively running without a king, which would then cause a political struggle among the Portuguese nobles about who's in charge. Other countries might look then at this and conclude that Portugal is weak and rip for the taking.
 
Nevermind that Sebastian is, to put it simply, nuts.

Imagine that he doesn't go to Morocco, but to India as he originally planned. He could survive for years warring a campaign there, but meanwhile Portugal is effectively running without a king, which would then cause a political struggle among the Portuguese nobles about who's in charge. Other countries might look then at this and conclude that Portugal is weak and rip for the taking.

He really wanted a fight abroad, didn't he? Before the India idea he offered his services to the King of France to go there and help him to kill the heretic Huguenots.
 
And if Sebastiao actually managed to TAKE Morocco? I know it's a stretch, and keeping the place would be a mammoth task anyway. But still...
 
And if Sebastiao actually managed to TAKE Morocco? I know it's a stretch, and keeping the place would be a mammoth task anyway. But still...

He could have taken coastal cities as the Portuguese had done before, but the countryside is simply impossible. Also, remeber that he didn't want to take Morocco. The whole war was caused by the attempt to install the deposed Abu Abdallah Mohammed II back in the Moroccan throne. The former sultan promised him some coastal towns in exchange for his help, and so Sebastian accepted.
 
He could have taken coastal cities as the Portuguese had done before, but the countryside is simply impossible. Also, remeber that he didn't want to take Morocco. The whole war was caused by the attempt to install the deposed Abu Abdallah Mohammed II back in the Moroccan throne. The former sultan promised him some coastal towns in exchange for his help, and so Sebastian accepted.

Well, I meant achieving success in the expedition. I suppose that installing a puppet there and reinforcing direct presence is tantamount to take it, provided that mediated control can be kept in place.
 
He could have taken coastal cities as the Portuguese had done before, but the countryside is simply impossible. Also, remeber that he didn't want to take Morocco. The whole war was caused by the attempt to install the deposed Abu Abdallah Mohammed II back in the Moroccan throne. The former sultan promised him some coastal towns in exchange for his help, and so Sebastian accepted.

So what if he managed that? Was the Portuguese candidate at all viable? And how invested in Morocco were the turks?
 
Well, I meant achieving success in the expedition. I suppose that installing a puppet there and reinforcing direct presence is tantamount to take it, provided that mediated control can be kept in place.

Interesting enough he could have achieved success if he didn't fight. Until the last moment the new sultan, Abu Marwan Abd al-Malik, offered to Sebastian to keep all the places that Abu Abdallah offered to him and a treaty of friendship with Portugal, as long as he didn't help the former ruler. Sebastian thought that Abu Marwan was showing weakness and decided to go on with the expedition. The problem is that he didn't know that you shouldn't march 32 kilometers through a desertic country under the summer heat only to discover that your enemy is at least twice the size of your tired and thirsty army.
 
So what if he managed that? Was the Portuguese candidate at all viable? And how invested in Morocco were the turks?

Well, Portugal gets some more towns, but probably some years later other Sultan would try to retake some of them, after all ruling a country where all of your ports are in the hands of foreigners isn't good for your economy. The Ottomans had sent some troops to help Abu Marwan (I don't know if they were really Ottoman or just Algerian allies though), and they gave him weapons and money to finnance his campaign.
 
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