So, how does this affect the postwar world? From my readings into Israeli history, I understand Zionism wasn't a majority opinion among Jews until the shock of Auschwitz convinced them they weren't safe in Western society-so does Israel get established in this TL? If not, what would be the effects of Poland, Belarus, and Hungary (not to mention Germany) continuing to be large centers of Jewish population and culture after the war? How would the Jewish populations of these countries react to the gradual Communist-ization after 1945, and what knock-on effects might we see on say, Polish or Hungarian culture?
1. Let's put it this way. Most jews tried and succeeded in fleeing Germany before WWII. If the Nazis enact similliar or worse legistlation in Poland and in their center European allies as OTL, then even if entire populations are not sent to death camps the survivors are going to want to leave. If Israel is not an option, many of them will make their way into the USSR- as 1.2 Million did following the Nazi conquest of Western and Central Poland (Of course, Stalin forcibly resettled 250,000 of them, including most of their elites in Gulags. They were the lucky onese since the others mostly died after Barbarossa)
2. OTL, jews who survived the Holcaust were simply unable to regain their social position or property in Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc. Their neighbors continued to target them in acts of individual and mob violence even after a communist regime was imposed. As a result, most, even those who were non-zionist, left.
3. Stalinism was really, really bad for Jews. between 1952-1956, Stalin launched an anti-Semitic campaign agaisnt Jews in both Central Europe and the USSR which so tens of thousands sent to the Gulags. More Jews, no Holocaust precedent=greater persecution.
4. Insofar as Israel is concerned a common claim is that Israel was founded by Holocaust survivors. That claim does not hold water. the 600,000 Jews living in Israel in 1948 and got there before the Holocaust began. Regardless of w
5. In the interwar peiod Zionism and Jewish nationalism (not exactly the same though they overlapped) was in fact the dominant political current among Jews. Likewise, prior to the Bolshevik revolution, there were 300,000 registered zionists as opposed to 30,000 Bundists (Jewish Socialist party favoring cultual autonomy), around 900 Bolsheviks, and 3,000 or so SRs and mensheviks. So Zionism was not quite as peripherial in Eastern Europe as you might think- it is in the democratic west that it was't all that popular: but that's not where most Jews are living in 1939. 95% of them are East of the Oder.
6. As for post WWII Jewish population movements- a lower proportion is likely to emigrate, but in absolute numbers emigration will be much, much larger. OTL, Israel recieved about 500,000 Holocaust survivors in the 50s. 2 million emigrants are a quite likely proposition absent a holocaust- if the warsaw pact countries allow them to leave (OTL, they mostly did, though Israel ended up bribing Romania) That said, any Central European Jews who can get out of Central Europe before the Iron curtain drops will do so. So expect a much larger Jewish population fleeing to the West. Thing is, until the late 1960s, Western countries effectively prevented jewish emigration (British occupation troops)
Romania is a good example proving my point. While Antonescu deported Soviet and some Moldavan Jews to Hitlers death camps (and Hungary did the same to Transylvanian Jews), Most Romanian Jews were persecuted but not murdered. Nontheless, within 20 years of Israel being formed the 300,000 Jews from Romanian were gone. The combination of the attractive force of zionism, the uncomfortable environment of communism and the continuing anti-semitism and insecurity (Jews were more likely to be purged and so forth) led them all to leave. Ditto for Hungary which was another Holocaust-Lite state.
I'm developing a few inter-related TLs exploring the effects of "alternate holocausts"- check out Shards of a dark mirror
