Would not the Japanese be interested, perhaps after their defeat of Russia? How would an independent Hawaii fare during World War I?
A Japanese Hawaii by 1940 would be a butterfly the size of a Pterodactyl.
There's pretty much no way America or the UK would tolerate it.
If we go the Independent Kingdom route, the Japanese could set up trade, but the UK isn't likely allow annexation.
If it's the Republic, the US isn't going to tolerate annexation by the Japanese either.
besides a POD in 1894 is probably going to have some affect on what happens in Asia, due to what happens to the Spanish-American war, or lack of it,