WI: No Hawaii Annexation

Would not the Japanese be interested, perhaps after their defeat of Russia? How would an independent Hawaii fare during World War I?

A Japanese Hawaii by 1940 would be a butterfly the size of a Pterodactyl.

There's pretty much no way America or the UK would tolerate it.

If we go the Independent Kingdom route, the Japanese could set up trade, but the UK isn't likely allow annexation.

If it's the Republic, the US isn't going to tolerate annexation by the Japanese either.

besides a POD in 1894 is probably going to have some affect on what happens in Asia, due to what happens to the Spanish-American war, or lack of it,
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Four years as a de facto protectorate of the US, true?

The Republic Existed for Four years without anyone attempting to fill said vacuum.QUOTE]

The landing party from USS Boston made it pretty clear which outside power was willing to deploy force to control the islands.



Best,
 
Problem with Hawaii as an independent country is economic development (or lack of it). To develop Hawaii will need outside capital, and exporting pineapples isn't enough. The US government through developing Pearl Harbor & other military facilities injected a lot of $$ in to the economy and both directly and indirectly helped develop infrastructure. A truly independent Hawaii will be very poor, and undeveloped - and no way to have any resources for any sort of defense.

The USA is not going to give the PI independence right after the Spanish-American War, simply because doing so would mean it would fall in to the German or Japanese orbit. (yes the German Asia fleet showed up in Manila Bay and had to be shooed away by Dewey). If the USA has the PI, Guam, Wake, and American Samoa it simply cannot let anyone else have Hawaii as a base (whether or not its rented or owned).

If Hawaii not annexed by the USA in 1897, then it will be a very close dependency, and good odds eventually annexed. The USA simply cannot have anyone else (even the Brits) have Hawaii as a naval base astride the route to the PI and so close (relatively) to the west coast.
 
The landing party from USS Boston made it pretty clear which outside power was willing to deploy force to control the islands.
Best,

the landing party arrived to assist the Overthrow of the Kingdom in 1893, before the Republic was proclaimed.

as for the status of the Republic, Cleveland claimed it was Illegal, dismissed the annexation treaty made in the Harrison administration and demanded the restoration of the Monarchy.

hardly protected by the United States.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Cleveland demanded the restoration of the monarchy,

publicly - he did nothing to enforce it.

Given that all it took in 1893 was a cruiser in port and a mixed company of marines and bluejackets ashore, doesn't appear that it would have taken much...and yet nothing happened.

Seems pretty clear Cleveland was accepting of the overthrow and the Republic as a de facto protectorate, certainly in terms of actions speaking louder than words.

Best,
 

katchen

Banned
Von Trotha gets an early start?

:eek:
Problem with Hawaii as an independent country is economic development (or lack of it). To develop Hawaii will need outside capital, and exporting pineapples isn't enough. The US government through developing Pearl Harbor & other military facilities injected a lot of $$ in to the economy and both directly and indirectly helped develop infrastructure. A truly independent Hawaii will be very poor, and undeveloped - and no way to have any resources for any sort of defense.

The USA is not going to give the PI independence right after the Spanish-American War, simply because doing so would mean it would fall in to the German or Japanese orbit. (yes the German Asia fleet showed up in Manila Bay and had to be shooed away by Dewey). If the USA has the PI, Guam, Wake, and American Samoa it simply cannot let anyone else have Hawaii as a base (whether or not its rented or owned).

If Hawaii not annexed by the USA in 1897, then it will be a very close dependency, and good odds eventually annexed. The USA simply cannot have anyone else (even the Brits) have Hawaii as a naval base astride the route to the PI and so close (relatively) to the west coast.
The Germans, if they attempted to take over the Philippines would have had the same problem with Aguinaldo that the US did IOTL.
Althoug judging
Quote:

from the ruthless way the Germans put down the Herereo in Southwest Africa that would not have deterred the Germans one bit. Still, once the Germans got done conquering the Philippines they would likely begin to open up Northeast New Guiinea to Filipino farmers, particularly in the Sepik Basin. And both would likely fall under the sway of Japan after 1917. While Australia would feel pressured to open up it's Papua Territory and Cape York to more white settlement. Which would be a major POD for New Guinea and the Japanese Empire.
 
publicly - he did nothing to enforce it.

Seems pretty clear Cleveland was accepting of the overthrow and the Republic as a de facto protectorate, certainly in terms of actions speaking louder than words.

Best,

Given that he has to go through congress and they proclaimed it to be a "internal Affair", he doesn't have much options.

Given that all it took in 1893 was a cruiser in port and a mixed company of marines and bluejackets ashore, doesn't appear that it would have taken much...and yet nothing happened.

Which is ignoring the actual events of the overthrow.

It wasn't 160 US soldiers and Marines storming the Palace, it was 1,500 members of the Honolulu Rifles, coupled with the Committee of Safety and Lili'uokalani's desire not to see anyone hurt or killed.

She ordered the 600 loyalist to peacefully surrender.
 

Curiousone

Banned
Any plausible way for the Hawaiian Monarchy to be incorporated into a de-facto American takeover? As in say 19th century diplomatic niceties prevail leaving them ceremonial heads of the republic, or calling the relation between Hawaii & the U.S an equal 'confederation' of republics?
 
publicly - he did nothing to enforce it.

Given that all it took in 1893 was a cruiser in port and a mixed company of marines and bluejackets ashore, doesn't appear that it would have taken much...and yet nothing happened.

Seems pretty clear Cleveland was accepting of the overthrow and the Republic as a de facto protectorate, certainly in terms of actions speaking louder than words.

Since the illegal overthrow had been backed, engineered and led by Americans - and other members of Hawaiian society - it is extremely unlikely, in the late 19th century, that any American president would land troops to forcibly oust American citizens acting badly. The Civil War is still a little too fresh.
 
It wasn't 160 US soldiers and Marines storming the Palace, it was 1,500 members of the Honolulu Rifles, coupled with the Committee of Safety and Lili'uokalani's desire not to see anyone hurt or killed.

She ordered the 600 loyalist to peacefully surrender.

The Palace wasn't stormed, but Aliiolanai Hale, where the legislature sat, was occupied by the Committee of Safety. The US Marines and soldiers established themselves at Arion Hall which was down the street from both.
 
No Annexation doesn't have to equal Hawaii proud and free. Say the Annexationists move while a British cruiser is nearby, the Royalists send word to their old friends asking them to protect the legitimate government. HMS Pinafore steams in, the Annexationists back down with a little pushing and Britain gets basing rights at Pearl Harbour. The international furor forces Britain to play the enlightened card and beyond the base Hawaii remains independent albeit under London's influence.

OR similar defeat of the Annexationists, America gets furious and the two nations settle for a condominium solution, with both protecting the Monarchy in return for influence.
 
If the British get basing rights then I'm guessing that at the very least the French would also want them, probably likewise the Americans as well. That could perhaps be a way to guarantee their independence and provide some income - Pearl Harbour is under Hawaiian sovereignty with a Hawaiian naval officer in command but both, or possibly the three, nations' ships are allowed to operate out of there in return for a yearly rent that provides for the expansion and maintenance of the port.
 
No Annexation doesn't have to equal Hawaii proud and free. Say the Annexationists move while a British cruiser is nearby, the Royalists send word to their old friends asking them to protect the legitimate government. HMS Pinafore steams in, the Annexationists back down with a little pushing and Britain gets basing rights at Pearl Harbour. The international furor forces Britain to play the enlightened card and beyond the base Hawaii remains independent albeit under London's influence.

OR similar defeat of the Annexationists, America gets furious and the two nations settle for a condominium solution, with both protecting the Monarchy in return for influence.

Nothing wrong with either of those scenarios. One has to remember that decolonization may occur later in the 20th century. The Hawaiian language would remain vibrant and strong, so would the people's culture.
 
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