WI No Hapsburg Inheritence

John Fredrick Parker

Donor
funnyhat said:
France was rather unlucky that, right when it could have really become a hegemon, the Hapsburgs came into a gigantic inheritance in the 16th century, which became even more gigantic when the Spanish part of it conquered a huge empire in the Americas.
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So it just occurred to me that in a recent discussion (on the House of York surviving, FWTW), I was forming a rough TL idea that did two other things in the 1470's:
  • Portugal wins the War of Castillian Succession
  • Mary of Burgandy marries someone other than Maximillian I,* possibly a surviving Duke of Berry
This means that not only does Austria not get their hands on the Lowlands, which likely remains in France's sphere, but any children Max has by a different wife are not going to marrying into the Spanish royal family (since there is no "Spain"), meaning no Spanish-Austrian Union in the form of Charles V. And in addition to all that, absent Ferdinand and Isabella Union, and with Portugal looking east, Columbus does not get a backer for his expedition; instead, another European power (England, let's say) backs a later Atlantic expedition that focuses on the Northern route (a la Cabot), meaning that the Caribbean, Mesoamerica, et el remain "undiscovered" for noticeably longer than OTL. So all told, we have no Spanish America, no Austrian/Spanish Lowlands, and no union of all of them plus the title of Holy Roman Emperor into one man -- in other words, nobody can be equivalent to Charles V in TTL.

So what would these particular changes mean for Europe? For example, would we still have the Reformation break out in the Holy Roman Empire and Switzerland in the 1510's and 20's? Would this complicate things for Suleiman the Magnificent? To return to the quote at the start, would this mean that France would have a real shot at dominating the European continent? And what else could be altered?

(PS - paging @Kellan Sullivan)

*As to who Maximilian I marries instead, we may not necessarily have to determine that here, but I had heard he had shown some interest in succeeding Matthias Corvinus as King of Hungary, in addition to his other titles.
 

BlueFlowwer

What happens if Nicholas of Lorraine survives? Mary was bethrothed to him until he died. Or if Margaret of York has children with Charles the bold, but thats a different matter.

To be honest I'm not sure that Portugal would have been able to win the war of the Castilian sucession. Perhaps if Isabella died during it?
 

John Fredrick Parker

Donor
BlueFlowwer said:
What happens if Nicholas of Lorraine survives? Mary was bethrothed to him until he died.
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That's another possibility; Lorraine is (technically) a vassal of the King of France at this point, right? So this also keeps the Lowlands under French sovereignty (or at least closer to France than to other major European powers).
 

avernite

I think, via the Brazilian route, Portugal will almost inevitably beat England to the Americas (they might keep it secret and/or not care as much, of course, but eventually the Spanish will hear and act).

As to the events in Europe, the tricky question is what alliances the three-four constituents (Burgundy, Austria, the Spains) would make instead. Burgundy might be able to still carve out its semi-kingdom and perhaps even expand it with it not being quite so big a threat to France (using an alliance with Lorraine and other Rhenish powers in lieu of Austria), or it might get crushed (if it fails to make a proper alliance). The Spains might squabble or do much the same but as allies rather than one country. Austria might have an easier time allying the Bohemian and Hungarian nobility without all the non-local focus or they might fail without the might and wealth of Burgundy and Spain to back them up. The princes of the Empire might feel less oppressed by a primus-inter-pares Austria and Burgundy and thus not run to adopt independent religious policies, or they might feel less scared and (possibly led by Burgundy) go to a Protestant faith in even greater numbers.

In short, you have so much open that the premise alone still allows you to go anywhere.

The smartest focus for Burgundy is likely first a French-border prince (Lorraine, Berry, Savoy) for Mary so the French estates have no reason to back the crown, then trying to take over the big leagues in Cleves/Julich/Berg/Gelre/(Liege/Utrecht/Cologne). From that base you have a big Netherlands so go from there.

For Aragon, an Italian policy focused on assembling the Italian princes on its side against possible French, Venetian and Austrian encroachment. Plus friendly with Castille to ensure no Frenchies come down the Pyrenees.

For Castille, a 'Portugal' option is probably safest, with some added focus on keeping France out of Navarre and Aragon.

And for Austria, a strong focus on Bohemia/Hungary/Poland and the Empire, working less to keep wayward Italians, Swiss and Burgundians on board and more on building a semi-national state in Germany.
 

BlueFlowwer

I would go with Lorraine for Mary, its neightbour, brings a front against France and allows Burgundy to expand. If Mary lives longer then things might be steadier. I think that Mary and Nicholas would have to focus on consolidating rather than expanding. Burgundy was large, but its doministic governance was unsteady at best and Charles the bold had a amazing ability to make enemies.

The biggest butterflies might be the italian wars and the reformation. Without the behemot of spain-holy roman empire France might be less interested in constantly fighting. I like that possibility
 

BlueFlowwer

Okay, i prefer the other one, but anyway. A more pro-burgundy England will help against France. How many children will Mary and Nicholas have?
 

John Fredrick Parker

Donor
Can we safely assume that Grenada will be conquered by Portugal-Castille in due time? If so, what are the medium term prospects for Navarre? Or the Crown of Aragon, for that matter?
 

BlueFlowwer

Someone is gonna conquer Granada, its only a matter of when and who. However the inqusition might not be formed and the jews might stay.

Mary and Ferdinand is a interesting idea.
 
Gwrtheyrn Annwn

Gwrtheyrn Annwn

Essentially the biggest change for the Habsburgs is they will be more focussed in Germany and the Empire than IOTL, this could even lead to then uniting the HRE, though I doubt this. As for Bohemia and Hungary, Maximillian's greatest ambition was to succeed Mathias Corvinus but his only real option for this is to wait until Mathias dies and try to get elected by the Bohemian and Hungarian Diets as he would do in OTL.
 
Clandango

Clandango

I feel maps would be good here. Then we can look at how further inheritances and marriages. And really, wouldn't there be plenty more Habsurgs around to marry to these other kingdoms? I would say they would still be considered suitable spouses to any royal family, even if they would not be quite as imperial as before.
 

Salvador79

John Fredrick Parker said:
Can we safely assume that Grenada will be conquered by Portugal-Castille in due time? If so, what are the medium term prospects for Navarre? Or the Crown of Aragon, for that matter?
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Don't think so. If Aragon pursues anti-unification, i.e. anti-Castilian policies, that means they'd logically try to sabotage and stop that. Granada was one of Aragon's most important trading partners.
So, no, granada isn't certainly off the table.
 
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