WI: No Gutian Incursions

The Gutian incursions into Mesopotamia brought down much of the Akkadian Empire: even Sargon's mighty grandson Naram-Sin was powerless to stop them. What is the impact on Mesopotamia if they do not move into the region?
 
The Gutian incursions into Mesopotamia brought down much of the Akkadian Empire: even Sargon's mighty grandson Naram-Sin was powerless to stop them. What is the impact on Mesopotamia if they do not move into the region?
I hink that, even if the Gutians were stopped or forestalled, Akkad and old Sumer would collapse, perhaps merely with another people taking the Gutians' place. The TMD had so many things go pear-shaped for Mesopotamia. Saltwater contaminated the marshes, the Euphrates shifted west, and soil degraded, leading to the abandonment of whole cities. Ur's population fell by 93%, and while some of this is due to barbarian invasions, most of the loss resulted from the drought. The TMD, remember, lasted for three whole centuries. In a time that harsh, a society needs lots of luck to pull through, and, if the dice are rolled for 300 years, you will stop rolling sevens at some point. Akkad and Sumer would probably still fall even if there is no need to build the "Repeller of the Amorites", the second-worst natural disaster in recorded history (coming in right behind the Black Death) will do that.
 
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