Wi: No gulf war,Us backed Iraq against Russian backed Iran

say Saddam doesn't invade Kuwait, Would Iraq end up gravitating to Us and Iran to Russia

Would Saddam Possibly try to invade Iran again at some point with Us backing

What would be the impact on the Arab spring if there is one
 
say Saddam doesn't invade Kuwait, Would Iraq end up gravitating to Us and Iran to Russia
no. Before the Gulf War, the US really wanted nothing to do with Iraq, as it was considered to be fully in the Soviet orbit. Iran famously called the USSR 'the lesser Satan', but they weren't averse to buying Soviet weaponry, although I don't recall if it was direct from them or through intermediates..
 
The Soviets were strongly backing Iraq in the 1980s, while basically no one was backing Iran. Considering that the Iranian leadership called the Soviet Union the "Lesser Satan" it would require some definite changes to make that Soviet support (and Iranian support) happen.
 
I was talking about post soviet collapse and during the 1990s , 2000s and 2010s , not during the iran iraq war

Saddam was being an opportunist when he invaded Iran (and Kuwait later on, apparently he isn't very good at gambling). During the lead up to that, Iran had just stopped being a US ally, while Iraq had been a Soviet ally for some time.

If the Shah doesn't fall, he probably would not have invaded. But if the Shah doesn't fall it likely stays a US ally or at least neutral after the Shah dies of cancer. Now Saddam was a pretty loyal Soviet ally, and while the Soviets were certainly capable of switching horses (as they did dropping Somalia for Ethiopia in the 1970s) the fact that Iran is Persian, not Arab, does matter here. Supporting the Iranians annoys the various Arab allies the Soviets have (Syria being the most important).

A complicated equation really.
 
say Saddam doesn't invade Kuwait, Would Iraq end up gravitating to Us and Iran to Russia

Would Saddam Possibly try to invade Iran again at some point with Us backing

Generally, the US isn't the power to turn to in order to fulfill hegemonistic desires. I think any intelligent US administration would also urge caution. Even after the Soviet collapse, with Russian backing Iran could've become far stronger vis a vis Iraq than it was during the Iran-Iraq war, when it got little in the way of outside supply for its armed forces.

What would be the impact on the Arab spring if there is one

Probably irrelevant.
 
that was later, and has more to do with Hezbollah than any particular Arabian/Persian friendship
Syria did supply Iran with arms and even cut off Iraqi pipelines during the iran iraq war and both governments have had friendly ties with each other since 1979
 
wouldn't he make an opportunistic attack on Syria and or face a possibly uprising by kurds and or shias


Saddam wouldn't have attacked Syria, and he had the Kurds and shia pretty well under control by 1990. Even after the shellacking his army got in 1991 it could still suppress the shia. I doubt they'd rebel; there wasn't an uprising during the Iran-Iraq war.
 
Syria did supply Iran with arms and even cut off Iraqi pipelines during the iran iraq war and both governments have had friendly ties with each other since 1979

true, I had forgotten that (the oil pipeline thing). I still assert that Hezbollah was the common interest that mattered more than any other factor (and apparently still matters a lot). Hezbollah was a way to strike at Israel (for the Iranians) and Syria was the only power that made it possible for Hezbollah to operate in Lebanon (and providing a secure rear area).
 
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