WI: No Great War 1914-1950

According to the German General Staff, 1916 was the last year in which a preventive war could be feasibly waged against the powers of the Entente. By 1917, France would have completed its army modernization program, as would Russia and its railroad-building program. The German diplomatic failure during the Agadir Crisis softened the tone of German diplomacy towards the other powers. The Albanian crisis of 1913-1914 was seen to herald at new era of coöperation between the great powers.

In the particular field of Anglo-German relations, by 1914, relations between the two great powers had once again warmed. Following the peak of Anglo-German naval rivalry in 1908-1909, which also coincided with the so-called “Navy Scare”, Britain was once again consolidating its naval supremacy, with a 16:10 ratio of superiority over the German fleet by 1914. Relations between the two states were the warmest they had been since before the Boer War.

Suppose that the Archduke Franz Ferdinand was not assassinated in Sarajevo on 28 of June, 1914, and that no great European war occurs in the years from 1914 to 1950. What will occur in those decades, and what will the world look like in 1950?
 
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Who knows, it would be so massively butterflied. I mean instead of a fascist revolt in Russia there would likely be a slow democratization progress. And Britian might still be a monarchy instead of a socialist republic.

Also I'm guesing that Germany will thrive instead of being to this day a glorified nuclear wasteland.

OOC: This is ASB
 
Who knows, it would be so massively butterflied. I mean instead of a fascist revolt in Russia there would likely be a slow democratization progress. And Britian might still be a monarchy instead of a socialist republic.

Also I'm guesing that Germany will thrive instead of being to this day a glorified nuclear wasteland.

OOC: This is ASB

I don't think this is a DBWI, but yes it is ASB to not have a greater European war between 1914-1950 with a POD of Ferdinand not being killed
 
Rather unlikely to be sure but ASB no I don’t think so. Austria and Russia are both in precarious domestic situations and aren’t likely to jump into a war without a nudge for awhile at least, and both in a few years likely will have to choose between reform or becoming basket cases either is likely to hamper their willingness to go to war. As for Germany the military thinking of the time was that after Russia finishes it rail upgrade a two front war would be close to unwinnable and I believe it’s been mentioned in the past discussions that the SDP was likely to try and trim the military budget in the next couple of years. Britain without a war to distract them is probably going to have to deal with Ireland and India which may well tie their hands for some time. As for France there isn’t a whole lot of chance of them starting a war without either Britain or Russia and preferable both in their corner.

That aside though OTL showed just how easily things got away from TPTB so it’s likely to be a long shot trying to avoid something spinning out of control until the fifties. Most likely you need to keep up a string of internal brushfires which are big enough to keep the Great Powers occupied while not quite big enough to make any one look too easy for the taking. Even then you’d probably also need to have the butterflies speed up the development of nuclear weapons “not beyond the realm of possibilities given the amount of scientific talent not to mention capital lost during WWI” and then beat the concept of MAD into the heads of the various General Staffs “Which might in fact truly be ASB…”
 
Rather unlikely to be sure but ASB no I don’t think so. Austria and Russia are both in precarious domestic situations and aren’t likely to jump into a war without a nudge for awhile at least, and both in a few years likely will have to choose between reform or becoming basket cases either is likely to hamper their willingness to go to war. As for Germany the military thinking of the time was that after Russia finishes it rail upgrade a two front war would be close to unwinnable and I believe it’s been mentioned in the past discussions that the SDP was likely to try and trim the military budget in the next couple of years. Britain without a war to distract them is probably going to have to deal with Ireland and India which may well tie their hands for some time. As for France there isn’t a whole lot of chance of them starting a war without either Britain or Russia and preferable both in their corner.

That aside though OTL showed just how easily things got away from TPTB so it’s likely to be a long shot trying to avoid something spinning out of control until the fifties. Most likely you need to keep up a string of internal brushfires which are big enough to keep the Great Powers occupied while not quite big enough to make any one look too easy for the taking. Even then you’d probably also need to have the butterflies speed up the development of nuclear weapons “not beyond the realm of possibilities given the amount of scientific talent not to mention capital lost during WWI” and then beat the concept of MAD into the heads of the various General Staffs “Which might in fact truly be ASB…”

I disagree. War speeds up technological growth. Its a fairly accepted fact. Especially wars as total as the two World Wars.
 
While somewhat unlikely, I don’t believe this scenario could be classified as “ASB”. Afterall, Europe experienced a period relative of peace for roughly one hundred years from 1815 to 1914. Although there were many wars, none of them had the shattering impact the First and Second World Wars would have on the twentieth century (although one might possibly discount the Franco-Prussian War from this: although it was only a war between two nations, the effects drastically altered the European balance of power).

Draco: Its interesting, but the European alliance system, which is often cited as one of the major causes of the spread of the First World War, could, arguably, after Russia finishes its military and rail reforms, have an opposing deadlock effect. Germany would no longer be willing to wage a preventive war against the Entente, while Britain would not consent to Dual Entente moving against Germany, so its possible that the political situation could remain static for quite a while, until the further growth of Russia once again alters the balance of power.

My main purpose in this thread is to speculate what would the trends in the political balance of power, in European society, and in the European colonial empires be if no drastic shakeup of the existing order occurs in the early twentieth century. In short, what would the world be like in 1950, and what would occur in the intervening years without a Great War magnitude catastrophe.
 
It’s an accepted fact that war speeds up specific areas of technology not that it does so in general. Who knows how much the continued survival of people like Henry Moseley could affect technological development? You also have to account for the vast amount of capital that won’t be expended or destroyed during the war not to mention additional economic growth during the formerly war years which at least in part will go toward R&D.
And while Nuclear Weapons though are clearly one the techs that did benefit from war time funding however at least to a certain degree I can see this being offset by higher global tension in the twenties and a far less war wary European Society. In such a case I see a “wonder weapon” such as the atomic bomb likely to be appealing to several Great Powers Germany and France in particular both of whom will be looking to have something to even the playing field. Germany in case of a two front war and France in case it isn’t. So without the drastically slashed budget and war wariness of OTL who’s to say what will happen?
 
Advanced technology is a poor consolation prize for the massive damage that even the victors sustain. When a modern war passes through and area it wrecks everything and kills civilians on a massive scale. Even victors like Britain and the US spend their foreign investments, have their young men killed and maimed in huge numbers, use up natural resources at a massive rate and wear out national infrastructure to an unacceptable degree. Set against that the jet engine and the nuclear reactor/bomb aren't so rosy.
 
Interesting! I would love to see this in TL form. The butterflies would be insane but it would be such a different world. One could do anything with it...
 

DISSIDENT

Banned
The Great War lasted thirty six years and killed generations of people. The periodic truces never really mattered, the war always started again within a few months.

General Kornilov's fascist revolt in Russia crushed the Soviets and overthrew Kerensky but it took a while to get Russian units organized again and the German gains in Eastern Europe enabled them to continue the war on the Western Front indefinitely.

The war only ended with the German use of atomic weapons in 1948 on Paris and Bordeaux, finally causing the French to surrender and Britain to withdraw from the war and sign a peace treaty with the Kaiser and the "silent dictatorship" of his generals in the Reichswehr.
 
The Great War lasted thirty six years and killed generations of people. The periodic truces never really mattered, the war always started again within a few months.

General Kornilov's fascist revolt in Russia crushed the Soviets and overthrew Kerensky but it took a while to get Russian units organized again and the German gains in Eastern Europe enabled them to continue the war on the Western Front indefinitely.

The war only ended with the German use of atomic weapons in 1948 on Paris and Bordeaux, finally causing the French to surrender and Britain to withdraw from the war and sign a peace treaty with the Kaiser and the "silent dictatorship" of his generals in the Reichswehr.
THIS IS NOT A DBWI.

And Kornilov wansnt fascist (well he probably would join the Russian Fascist party if the Russian Republic comes out of the civil war.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Hmm, not to have a great war is almost impossible if Franz Ferdinand is the PoD. The Great Powers would only find another "reason" to jump each other's throat. So I think you need an earlier PoD, where the relations between all countries wouldn't be so darned tense.

Anyway; UK, France and Germany would stay as important powers a little bit longer. Austria- Hungary would either have to reform into a federation or dissolve; either peacefully or through some ugly shit. However without WW1 I think Austria has to the mid 20s, before it get really dangerous.

The Ottomans would hopefully get rid of the Young Turks at some point. Their glory days are over, but if they can take advantage of the Middle East oil wealth, they could get rich. Unfortunately the oil could become a reason for a rift between the Turks and the Arabs.

For Russia the lack of a WW1 would give them some time, but like with A-H, if they're not using it for reforms they will face some serious shit in the mid 20's.

Italy would be some kind of middle power. If Austria goes down the toilet, they would probably secure some claims. I doubt Fascism would be born, or at least would look like OTL fascism without WW1.

Japan would probably still grow to be the new power lof Asia, and would start to increase their influence in China and challenge the European powers.

The US would at some point exit isolation and take their place as a Global Power.
 
I certainly think its possible to avoid a GENERAL war - there had after all been one between great powers since 1870 (or 1878 if you count the Russo-Ottoman War)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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