WI: No Great Migration

CaliGuy

Banned
What if the Great Migration(s) of blacks never happened?
For one, you might have less support for immigration restrictionism in the 1920s and beyond due to a need for cheap labor. Indeed, if Blacks can't fill the labor shortage, who else can do this other than immigrants?
 
I wonder how this could happen? A lot of the Great Migration was simply rural flight, albeit of a particular minority. Would they just go to Southern cities like Birmingham, Atlanta, Nashville, etc. instead? Increasing the amount of blacks in those cities--as well as in rural areas, since presumably less people would leave--would be interesting, but I don't know how possible it is to prevent their flight to the North, as much as Southern police seem to have tried to. The most plausible way of doing this is to divert the majority of the Great Migration to Southern cities, with a small minority going to the North.

Without Great Migration, Jim Crow might persist until 1990s.

How? The Civil Rights Movement will probably still happen in the South, unless you can stop it from happening.
 
^ This needs more explanation and elaboration. One sentence isn't enough.

No/reduced Great Migration would concentrate blacks into those Delta counties along/near the Mississippi, meaning they could be used by the NAACP and other civil rights groups to be registred for voting. And that's only in that part of the South (civil rights groups will still focus on black communities elsewhere, of course). Look at the demographics of Southern counties to see the effects of the Great Migration, and very tellingly, compare it to the number of slaves in those counties during the last census (1860) when slavery was legal. Freed blacks would only be a small percentage of this.

http://i.imgur.com/mbWkMeA.jpg
 
How? The Civil Rights Movement will probably still happen in the South, unless you can stop it from happening.

Without the Great Migration, you delay the formation of the Black Middle Class that occurred as large numbers of Southern Blacks moved north for much better paying factory work. Without that, a lot of factors that helped the Civil Rights movement to succeed (Increased education, a middle class able to financially back the cause, etc...) don't exist for quite some time.
 
A little old but just wanted to add a small quip.

No great migration would have roughly in my eyes 2 major effect. One negative, one positive:

Con: Due to a poorer black america less finances are available for civil rights organizations resulting in less resources. Civil will in my mind still come, the cold war and decolonization pretty much guarantee that it becomes a necessity for propaganda purposes, but when it does get implemented it will be a lot weaker. Plus it will happen a bit later more than likely, say 70s.

Pro: When civil rights do occur they arguably will be a lot more effective. So long as it at the very least protects and guarantees voting rights to a significant degree a rather positive effect in the form of more representation will potentially occur. Why? Without the effective gutting that the great migration caused to the black populations within many states, especially the deep south, this would result in a much more concentrated rather than scattered demographic which potentially would haven actual full on majorities in various states(like south Carolina and Mississippi). Result. More guaranteed representation within the federal government(ex: from 2 senators to 12) leading to African Americans having potentially far more influence than they do in OTL. Regardless of that case due to said majorities African will effectively control various states simple for the fact that they have a full majority, so long as they stay united of course. This would allow even with sub par action on the feds part for African Americans to be able to gain their rights and combat Jim crow on their own at the state level. The effects that would have on the black power movement are worthy of some discussion.

Just some thoughts of mine.
 

missouribob

Banned
I have a feeling white supremacist are going to fight harder against civil rights in an OTL where a state might go under black control. Butterfly's are large, the white population might even flee into neighboring states not wanting to live under black rule.
 
I have a feeling white supremacist are going to fight harder against civil rights in an OTL where a state might go under black control. Butterfly's are large, the white population might even flee into neighboring states not wanting to live under black rule.

I don't think white supremacist migration would be very big. Look at all the people who were "moving to Canada" when Obama won in '08 and '12, and all the people moving to Canada when Trump won in '16, and all the people who will be moving to Canada no matter who wins in '20, etc. Not a lot. In this case, just more violence that will burn itself out before long.

Alternatively, you could have more of a black conservative movement, and a Southern conservative movement which delves less into dogwhistle racism. You would have more Herman Cain-type figures, you would definitely have more blacks in the Religious Right, and all sorts of things. American politics in the second half of the 20th century will be very different.
 

missouribob

Banned
I don't think white supremacist migration would be very big. Look at all the people who were "moving to Canada" when Obama won in '08 and '12, and all the people moving to Canada when Trump won in '16, and all the people who will be moving to Canada no matter who wins in '20, etc. Not a lot. In this case, just more violence that will burn itself out before long.

Alternatively, you could have more of a black conservative movement, and a Southern conservative movement which delves less into dogwhistle racism. You would have more Herman Cain-type figures, you would definitely have more blacks in the Religious Right, and all sorts of things. American politics in the second half of the 20th century will be very different.
I'd be more willingly to believe that if white flight didn't happen in mass in OTL. I understand state migration is bigger but even the racist stigma of being the "black state" could have long term impact on demographics.
 
I'd be more willingly to believe that if white flight didn't happen in mass in OTL. I understand state migration is bigger but even the racist stigma of being the "black state" could have long term impact on demographics.

It's a city versus a state. White flight moved to the suburbs. Statewide white flight moves to...where? Other states with large black populations which control large segments of the state government? You still would have certain counties, towns, and regional cities which have white majorities, so it isn't like local government is completely in the hands of blacks. And then the majority of the population, which does not have the means to suddenly uproot themselves over a racial panic, finds that after a few years of "black state governance", the sky has not fallen, and they need to just live with it and fight it politically (and not violently). Basically the large part of the population which was as "neutral" as you could get during the Civil Rights era. But even a lot of them could eventually find things in common, and the blacks in the South diverge from whatever national party they end up affiliating with (assuming we have the "Most blacks vote Republican until most blacks vote Democrat" as in OTL). Although admittedly it could take a while, as in decades, in which case the election where TTL's "Solid South" breaks apart would of course be a realigning election, possibly in favour of social conservatism since the obvious way to unite quite a few Southern whites and Southern blacks is to appeal to shared Christian faith and religious conservativism.

Even then, if a bunch of jobs are suddenly left open because the most racist part of Southern society leaves (a Great Migration of Racists?), that would provoke migration into the South (which will be most all white) and improve Southern economies.
 
Would they just go to Southern cities like Birmingham, Atlanta, Nashville, etc. instead?
That in itself would be interesting as a few decades down the line when things like voting rights reforms come in you'd see solidly black majority cities led most likely by black mayors and majority black councils.
 
I wonder how this could happen? A lot of the Great Migration was simply rural flight, albeit of a particular minority.

This. Its ASB imho.

Always going to be post-Reconstruction racist backlash, ergo people are always going to flee.

The desire to flee "rural culture" for the modernized hope of cities has its own allure too. The Color Purple is instructive here. I've been told that my grandmother fled the South after getting raped by a relative, because "down in the country" the girls were always blamed for such things. (of course)

The only way to truly cancel the Great Migration is by force with a rather unsavory PoD somewhere in the 1860s, I suspect.

A black U.S state would sure wet the panties of every Black Nationalist/"Desegregation hurt us" type brother out there, but you need a dumptruck of butterflies to make that coalesce in the first place and 2nd dumptruck to make the rest of the country willing to tolerate such a thing, let alone allow it to thrive. I don't wanna imagine how much blood would have to be spilled for things to get to this point. Probably some fucked up Alt Civil War that goes all Anglo-American Nazi with a Brokenback Confederacy collapsing into anarchy, mass slave rebellion, genocide, bloody Reconquista by the North, Locusts from the Bottomless Pit, etc.
 
I don't think white supremacist migration would be very big. Look at all the people who were "moving to Canada" when Obama won in '08 and '12, and all the people moving to Canada when Trump won in '16, and all the people who will be moving to Canada no matter who wins in '20, etc. Not a lot. In this case, just more violence that will burn itself out before long.

Alternatively, you could have more of a black conservative movement, and a Southern conservative movement which delves less into dogwhistle racism. You would have more Herman Cain-type figures, you would definitely have more blacks in the Religious Right, and all sorts of things. American politics in the second half of the 20th century will be very different.

On the otherhand one could arguably provide a counter example in the form of white flight from the inner cities. An increasingly large and politically stronger black population tended to result in said aforementioned whites fleeing, mostly to the suburbs to escape "crime and lower housing values". Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that moving from one country to another is a whole lot different from moving from one state to another.

If it occurred on a municipal level why not on a statewide level?
 
On the otherhand one could arguably provide a counter example in the form of white flight from the inner cities. An increasingly large and politically stronger black population tended to result in said aforementioned whites fleeing, mostly to the suburbs to escape "crime and lower housing values". Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that moving from one country to another is a whole lot different from moving from one state to another.

If it occurred on a municipal level why not on a statewide level?

It's not that it wouldn't happen at times, it's just that it wouldn't happen on a major level. The big ones would be bordering counties (usually rural, move to the next county over), especially those bordering major cities. The obvious ones would be Charlotte, NC and Memphis, TN. Maybe also Chattanooga, TN but I don't think Georgia would end majority black--since that's the case, add Savannah, GA, Columbus, GA, and Augusta, GA. Florida would be majority black before tourism/retirement takes off there, so add Pensacola, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville (not bordering but very close). It could go the other way too--Huntsville, Alabama could have development go north into Tennessee (perhaps about 40 mmiles northwest to Pulaski, Tennessee, birthplace of the Klan). Some of those cities (i.e. Memphis) might not be so good if you're a racist, since they'll be at least as black if not more, and earlier, than OTL. In any case, Southern cities would be much more black than OTL, since the "Great Migration" would be to Southern cities (we do have to ask ourselves why Southern cities are more attractive than Northern cities TTL when that wasn't quite the case OTL).

But on the other hand, if you live 100-200 miles to the nearest "white" state, would you really uproot your entire life just because you're that scared of the state government? I don't really see the a lot of the factors at play here other than the whole white people being scared of black people. Some people might. The majority of people wouldn't, leaving a phenomena which is only a fraction of what white flight did to cities and their surroundings. So in the end, perhaps mostly near bordering counties (limited effects), as well as provoking the development of exurbs in certain areas. Oh, and mostly halting the expansion of certain urban areas--for instance, Memphis would not expand south into De Soto County, MS, and if it did, the suburbs would be mainly black instead of white as in OTL.
 
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