If there was no Goldwater, then one would have been created by the angry right whose takeaway from the 1960 election wasn't that Nixon was a terrible campaigner and lost that election due to a variety of factors, but rather their takeaway was that he was not pure enough and got off base. The '64 rightward tilt would have happened with or without Goldwater. The GOP loss in '60 would have triggered it. The question, for me, though is what the South would have done in reacting to a GOP candidate who was not Goldwater in '64. The Nixon Southern strategy was born of watching puzzling returns in '64, seeing Goldwater capture states in the South that he had no business capturing. If you get a different sort of right tilt candidate in '64, then that Southern capture might not have happened. I know LBJ made enemies in the South and that twisted things, but Goldwater didn't just pick up those states by virtue of being Not LBJ. There were other factors there. Change those, and well, you get a very curious looking landscape.
If anyone wants to write this TL, I'd love to read it.
The really popular TL No Southern Strategy has a PoD where the Dixiecrats run in ‘64, capturing the Deep South and Goldwater loses his home state by a slim margin (like how he won it IRL). Goldwater losing every single state and the GOP’s reaction is a good chunk of the premise of the early TL.