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Even as late as 1897, with the Germans deliberately scouting for a Chinese base, pulling the trigger on seizing Qingdao was a near-run thing.

Granted, the Germans were waiting for an excuse to present itself, and it came in the form of the murder of a couple German Catholic missionaries in Shandong. If you don't have that pretext, the ambition to eventually get a China base may not abate, but another occasion might not occur in 1897.

Even as things were, the German foreign ministry and ambassador in China opposed gaining Chinese territory via a forceful fait accompli. Admiral Diederichs of the Far Eastern squadron felt, probably rightly, that a forceful fait accompli would be the only way to get a leased port from the Chinese.

German diplomats, and perhaps even the Kaiser, sounded out the Russians about whether they would object to the move. The Russians gave an ambiguous answer in OTL, but German plans might have been set back some by a firmer Russian "no" at the outset.

And at the same time, while Deiderichs took action in Shangdong, Tirpitz actually opposed the move at that time. He feared anything too forceful in China, especially if it resulted in casualties, would damage the chances of him passing the naval law. Tirpitz at the turn of the century was actually rather rigid about his preferred order of business, he wanted to do the naval build-up first, and only leverage it for world power later on. Every time other Germans were perceiving opportunities to grab or purchase a colony (in the Spanish -American War, or a purchase or rental in Curacao or the Virgin Islands) Tirpitz said it was "too early".

So what if, for any of the reasons above, the Germans do no grab Qingdao in 1897? What are the probable knock-ons?

Do the Russians, French and British still seize Port Arthur, Guangzhouan and Weihaiwei on schedule or within a short time period?

Does the Boxer rebellion unfold as it did historically? Note-the movement was strongest in Shandong province in , specifically during the years after German seized territory. If there is a Boxer rebellion, does it happen "on schedule"?

Are there any long-term consequences for German relations with China, Japan or other powers.

I'm presuming that nothing necessarilly stops Germany from buying Micronesia off from Spain after it's lost the Spanish-American war. The lack of a Spanish-American war is not a direct knock-on of the PoDs I think, although it could be butterflied away in a fairly random and convoluted manner.
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