WI no German seizure of Qingdao in Shandong?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Even as late as 1897, with the Germans deliberately scouting for a Chinese base, pulling the trigger on seizing Qingdao was a near-run thing.

Granted, the Germans were waiting for an excuse to present itself, and it came in the form of the murder of a couple German Catholic missionaries in Shandong. If you don't have that pretext, the ambition to eventually get a China base may not abate, but another occasion might not occur in 1897.

Even as things were, the German foreign ministry and ambassador in China opposed gaining Chinese territory via a forceful fait accompli. Admiral Diederichs of the Far Eastern squadron felt, probably rightly, that a forceful fait accompli would be the only way to get a leased port from the Chinese.

German diplomats, and perhaps even the Kaiser, sounded out the Russians about whether they would object to the move. The Russians gave an ambiguous answer in OTL, but German plans might have been set back some by a firmer Russian "no" at the outset.

And at the same time, while Deiderichs took action in Shangdong, Tirpitz actually opposed the move at that time. He feared anything too forceful in China, especially if it resulted in casualties, would damage the chances of him passing the naval law. Tirpitz at the turn of the century was actually rather rigid about his preferred order of business, he wanted to do the naval build-up first, and only leverage it for world power later on. Every time other Germans were perceiving opportunities to grab or purchase a colony (in the Spanish -American War, or a purchase or rental in Curacao or the Virgin Islands) Tirpitz said it was "too early".

So what if, for any of the reasons above, the Germans do no grab Qingdao in 1897? What are the probable knock-ons?

Do the Russians, French and British still seize Port Arthur, Guangzhouan and Weihaiwei on schedule or within a short time period?

Does the Boxer rebellion unfold as it did historically? Note-the movement was strongest in Shandong province in , specifically during the years after German seized territory. If there is a Boxer rebellion, does it happen "on schedule"?

Are there any long-term consequences for German relations with China, Japan or other powers.

I'm presuming that nothing necessarilly stops Germany from buying Micronesia off from Spain after it's lost the Spanish-American war. The lack of a Spanish-American war is not a direct knock-on of the PoDs I think, although it could be butterflied away in a fairly random and convoluted manner.
 
Even without Germany the increasing encroachment of Russia on Qing territory would still be a factor (indeed, probably the dominant factor) for Britain to consider when 'leasing' extra bases in China. I suppose they wouldn't have bothered with Weihaiwei, relying instead on Hong Kong (which still would have gotten expanded in 1898) and eventually the alliance with Japan.

Russia would still seize Port Arthur, because that cements their position in the Asian northeast. That would still annoy Japan, and war between them would still have happened.

Given that 2 of the Great Powers were still seizing land in China, France would likely demand lease of Fort-Bayard as well.

I'm not sure that the Boxers would have been butterflied away in this case - considering foreign encroachment was still happening and Cixi's ill disposition towards foreigners. Maybe it becomes more of an anti-Russian thing, though note that there would still be plenty of foreign missionaries/investments to plunder in/near Shandong even if the Germans hadn't carved out their little empire there.

Biggest ramification I can see is without German colonies, Japan doesn't seize Qingdao in WWI, which OTL was the pretext of the tremendously-culturally-significant May Fourth Movement (which indirectly led to the establishment of the Communist Party). Of course Japan could have done something else to precipitate said Movement.
 
How interested was Germany in Korea?
I think I read somewhere that Gojong was planning some economic concessions for Germany(due to his policy of "balance of neutrality by bringing as many countries into the issue"), but the plan was foiled as Germany acquired Shandong.
 
Even without Germany the increasing encroachment of Russia on Qing territory would still be a factor (indeed, probably the dominant factor) for Britain to consider when 'leasing' extra bases in China. I suppose they wouldn't have bothered with Weihaiwei, relying instead on Hong Kong
Or maybe adding Quingdao itself, rather than Weihaiwei? Doesn't the former provide a better harbour than the latter?
 

LordKalvert

Banned
No, there are no land grabs without the Germans starting the move they are all done in response to the German move.

The Russians certainly aren't in any hurry. They would prefer to finish their railroad before stirring up anything in the Far East, they already had a lease on Kaichow and an alliance with China. Better to wait and grow stronger.The Russians are the ones who take the biggest hit here

The British only move after they can't get the Russians out of Port Arthur and do so only to satisfy "public opinion". So can't see them acting

France would never start anything like that on its own. Her focus was still on Egypt and Niger.

Does this butterfly away the Boxer rebellion? Hard to say. Shandoung was falling apart (which is why the missionaries got killed) because of the horrid economic conditions there. Its focus may have been much more on the Manchus than the foreigners though. That would have had a big impact as it would have had all the powers backing the Manchus and the intervention in 1900 probably would never have occurred.


Long term Chinese German relations aren't probably affected. Germany was a bit player out there and unless the Germans convince themselves that they need to play the Chinese off against the Russians, they have no real interests other than commercial. The last is doubtful as the Chinese wouldn't be much to play off against the Russians and would lead to the Russians turning their attention on Germany.
 

raharris1973

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Or maybe adding Quingdao itself, rather than Weihaiwei? Doesn't the former provide a better harbour than the latter?

Maybe so. It is a better harbor. On the other hand, it is not standing guard against the Russians in Port Artur as Weihaiwei did.

No, there are no land grabs without the Germans starting the move they are all done in response to the German move.

interesting take on things. It's a reasonable argument I suppose.

The Russians certainly aren't in any hurry. They would prefer to finish their railroad before stirring up anything in the Far East,.....and an alliance with China. Better to wait and grow stronger.The Russians are the ones who take the biggest hit here

So they play a restrained game vis-a-vis China until 1903?

they already had a lease on Kaichow
I thought they told the Germans they did not have one when the Germans asked.

The British only move after they can't get the Russians out of Port Arthur and do so only to satisfy "public opinion". So can't see them acting

France would never start anything like that on its own. Her focus was still on Egypt and Niger.

Agree on these two points.

Does this butterfly away the Boxer rebellion? Hard to say. Shandoung was falling apart (which is why the missionaries got killed) because of the horrid economic conditions there. Its focus may have been much more on the Manchus than the foreigners though. That would have had a big impact as it would have had all the powers backing the Manchus and the intervention in 1900 probably would never have occurred.

So the timing and orientation of the Boxer rebellion depends. Got it.

Long term Chinese German relations aren't probably affected.

I would think if anything, German-Chinese relations would be better and Germany would be China's favorite European country.

Germany was a bit player out there and unless the Germans convince themselves that they need to play the Chinese off against the Russians, they have no real interests other than commercial. The last is doubtful as the Chinese wouldn't be much to play off against the Russians and would lead to the Russians turning their attention on Germany.

I would agree the Germans would not just up and play off the Chinese against the Russians as long as they have hope of decent relations with Russia. So, while having extensive commercial interests and goodwill with China, Germany won't be making them an anti-Russian bastion in the 1897-1907 era.

But, if the Russians do eventually turn their attention back to Europe and supporting Slavs against Austria-Hungary, then Germany has every reason to try to play the Chinese off against the Russians. If the Russians in the meantime have seized Port Arthur after 1903, the Sino-Russian honeymoon will be over, and Germany and China might strengthen ties in the 1910s. If there is still a Russo-Japanese war that Russia loses, Russia will lose some military credibility in China too.

If Russia gets threatening to Germany and Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans in Europe in the 20th century, the European "Central Powers" indeed have every incentive to form closer relations with both China *and* Japan.

So, we could end up with China and/or Japan fighting on Germany's side against Russia and France at some point.

Even if China and Japan don't dare side with Germany (a situation that could obtain if there is still an Anglo-Japanese alliance and Britain still aligns with France and Russia), Japan and China both still have less to gain by joining the Allies since in the ATL the fate of Qingdao is not at stake. Are the Japanese going to actively go to war against Germany just to get Micronesia, if they can't hope to also get Qingdao?
 
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LordKalvert

Banned
So they play a restrained game vis-a-vis China until 1903?

Up until the seizure of Port Arthur. There's no evidence that they intended to move until after the Germans acted. Its a big mistake by Nicholas

I thought they told the Germans they did not have one when the Germans asked.

They signed an agreement on Kaichow in 1896 for winter quarters. They never developed it. There focus really was more on Korea

So the timing and orientation of the Boxer rebellion depends. Got it.
It might. It was a huge insult to China and the humiliation coupled with the economic crises go hand in hand. The Boxers may have developed an anti foreign orientation anyway No guarantees here


Long term Chinese German relations aren't probably affected.

I would think if anything, German-Chinese relations would be better and Germany would be China's favorite European country.


I would agree the Germans would not just up and play off the Chinese against the Russians as long as they have hope of decent relations with Russia. So, while having extensive commercial interests and goodwill with China, Germany won't be making them an anti-Russian bastion in the 1897-1907 era.

But, if the Russians do eventually turn their attention back to Europe and supporting Slavs against Austria-Hungary, then Germany has every reason to try to play the Chinese off against the Russians. If the Russians in the meantime have seized Port Arthur after 1903, the Sino-Russian honeymoon will be over, and Germany and China might strengthen ties in the 1910s. If there is still a Russo-Japanese war that Russia loses, Russia will lose some military credibility in China too.

If Russia gets threatening to Germany and Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans in Europe in the 20th century, the European "Central Powers" indeed have every incentive to form closer relations with both China *and* Japan.

So, we could end up with China and/or Japan fighting on Germany's side against Russia and France at some point.

Even if China and Japan don't dare side with Germany (a situation that could obtain if there is still an Anglo-Japanese alliance and Britain still aligns with France and Russia), Japan and China both still have less to gain by joining the Allies since in the ATL the fate of Qingdao is not at stake. Are the Japanese going to actively go to war against Germany just to get Micronesia, if they can't hope to also get Qingdao?


All this is possible. But a Russia that has completed the railway becomes dominant in the Far East and Nicholas for one never gave a damn about the Pan slav movement. His concern was always the straits and his plan seems to have been to ally with Turkey.

He backed the Sultan in the Armenian crises and the Greek War for example. A keep Europe quite so I can grab Asia strategy. Besides, he was young, FJ was old and FF always liked the idea of good relations with Russia. No real need to get involvd in the Balkans if you can avoid it. And before the 1905 Revolution, you can avoid it.

The Russians weren't all that happy with the Balkan Wars. In the old autocratic days, they would have kissed and made up with FJ who was just trying to be a great power once again. Of course, FJ might have tread a little more carefully against an unhumbled Russia

There's little possibility of a Russo-Japanese War that Russia loses after 1904 (which is why the Japanese strike). The completion of the Trans Siberian railroad and the Borodino class battleships would have more than transformed the Balance of power out there. Russia barely loses as it is and any changes to augment their power would definitely tilt things their way.

Japan's power at the time came from the Chinese indemnity that gave her the money to build up her military but those funds were built and Russia had more than enough to crush Japan in a long term arms race

Even after losing the Japanese War, Russia's power in the far east was once again ascending rapidily- the double tracking of the Siberian railway and the completion of the Baltic Fleet would have made Russia once again capable of fighting Japan
 

raharris1973

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There's little possibility of a Russo-Japanese War that Russia loses after 1904 (which is why the Japanese strike).

Then I still see a Russo-Japanese war as probable, timed before the completion of the Trans-Siberian railroad, even if Russia has not taken Port Arthur. Russian activity in Korea is enough to make Japan want to settle accounts. Japan could lose, but it could still win as well if the war takes place in the right window.

The indemnity funds from China were earned in 1895 so are still there in this ATL to be spent on naval modernization.

One effect of Germany not seizing Qingdao might be that Britain's Joe Chamberlain never tries to talk Germany into an alliance. It might head off the British-German Yangtze agreement as well. He hoped to use the Germans to contain Russia in China, and the substantial presence in Shandong probably amplified that possibility in Chamberlain's mind.

The uncertain factor for Japan is whether there is still an Anglo-Japanese alliance to guard against third party intervention in a Russo-Japanese fight.


-----Regarding the general points about the Far East and Russian lack of interest in the Balkans and Pan-Slavism, I take your point.

If succeeding in Asia, you're assuming they keep Europe quiet.

However, even in OTL, the Russians said they did not want the Balkan Wars, but they never had the discipline or self-control to actually stop their Balkan clients from taking action or to punish them for starting trouble. The court never had the discipline or self-control to tell pro-Serbs and pan-Slav elite opinion to STFU and to deny that Russian honor was involved at all in Serbia's fate. So, Russia in OTL, and conceivably even in an ATL where its preferences are for Asia, may simply lack the ability to prevent Balkan actors from dragging them into European tensions and conflict.
 
No Tsingtao Brewery.

Not only that, but the entire beer industry in China would be a big open-ended question. Tsingtao was the first successful Chinese-produced beer and thanks to its continuous tweaking to capture Chinese tastes, every other brewery in China (there are many) emulates them. Today, beer is ubiquitous in China at every restaurant, and many men wouldn't fathom having hotpot or shaokao without a case. Without Tsingtao, I wonder if beer would be even half as popular in China as it is today, or would it be a foreign thing that only trendy city dwellers, affluent people, and expats care about?
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Then I still see a Russo-Japanese war as probable, timed before the completion of the Trans-Siberian railroad, even if Russia has not taken Port Arthur. Russian activity in Korea is enough to make Japan want to settle accounts. Japan could lose, but it could still win as well if the war takes place in the right window.

A Japanese attack on Russia requires French neutrality. For that to happen, they need the British alliance something that Britain only offers very late (1902). For Japan, the only opening is really 1902-04







-----Regarding the general points about the Far East and Russian lack of interest in the Balkans and Pan-Slavism, I take your point.

If succeeding in Asia, you're assuming they keep Europe quiet.

However, even in OTL, the Russians said they did not want the Balkan Wars, but they never had the discipline or self-control to actually stop their Balkan clients from taking action or to punish them for starting trouble. The court never had the discipline or self-control to tell pro-Serbs and pan-Slav elite opinion to STFU and to deny that Russian honor was involved at all in Serbia's fate. So, Russia in OTL, and conceivably even in an ATL where its preferences are for Asia, may simply lack the ability to prevent Balkan actors from dragging them into European tensions and conflict.

This is true. After the 1905 revolution, the Russians do start paying attention to public opinion a bit and the government is weak as well as its international position

And your right, it is the others that drag Russia back into Balkan affairs- the Bosnian annexation, the Young Turk rebellion but most importantly the Italo-Ottoman War which destroys the balance of power in the Balkans and allows the Balkan states to attack. Keeping the Balkans quite requires close cooperation with Austria above all
 
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