WI: No German re-unification/ a democratic East Germany

What if the allies didn't allow the two Germanies to re-unificate in 1990? How plausible is that? A separate East Germany (with a re-united Berlin as its capital), a country pretty similar to other countries of the former Warsaw Pact.
How would such an East Germany envolve? Also to an EU-critical, moderately right-winged country similar to Hungary and Poland? Or would it go another way?
How would envolve the relations to West Germany?
What role could such a separate East Germany play in the 90s and post-millenial?
What about economics?
 
I don't know how plausible it owuld be if USSR/Russia, France, UK and USA decide that Germany shouldn't unite but stopping that would be very difficult without military intervention what they hardly are going to do. East Germans wanted re-unification so it would make stopping of that very difficult. Beside Communism it even hadn't any own identity which would had make them separate people from West Germans.

And another problem was that East Germany was very unviable state. It would experience soon economical collapse. And young people would move to West Germany so the country wouldn't had much of young people left. So either Allies are ready supply East Germany economically or then are ready give economic support propably several decades. And even this helps anything. Re-unification was pretty much inevitable event. Perhaps you can delay that with few years but hardly more.

Either you need POD of WW2 or then Allies has invade the country and put that under permanent military occupation. And this would damage relationships with West Germamy.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
What if
Communism crumbles in late 80s early 90s
Then post communist Poland attacks the independent post communist east Germany in early 90s ?
What would NATO or Russia do ?
 
This is actually a very interesting question. Apparently Thatcher was opposed to German reunification (but she then fell from power). Her argument was that allowing the post-WWII borders to be withdrawn would cause chaos in other places (e.g. the Balkans). In this it seems she was right. That said, I am not sure the alternative would have been better. If Germany had not reunified it seems likely that many East Germans would have simply moved to the West leaving a country full old people. I would suggest the POD could be a more forceful Thatcher who manages to stay in power until at least 1992. The question then is would a divided Germany keep other borders intact or was that inevitable. Where would the DDR (or whatever it was called) fall on the spectrum between viable state and failed state.
 

longsword14

Banned
I would suggest the POD could be a more forceful Thatcher who manages to stay in power until at least 1992.
Thatcher and Britain cannot do anything, because Bush Sr and the US of A said otherwise.
:cool:
edit :
Not even Thatcher's own country men would stand for it. There was literally no base for keeping Germany divided.
 
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This is actually a very interesting question. Apparently Thatcher was opposed to German reunification (but she then fell from power). Her argument was that allowing the post-WWII borders to be withdrawn would cause chaos in other places (e.g. the Balkans). In this it seems she was right. That said, I am not sure the alternative would have been better. If Germany had not reunified it seems likely that many East Germans would have simply moved to the West leaving a country full old people. I would suggest the POD could be a more forceful Thatcher who manages to stay in power until at least 1992. The question then is would a divided Germany keep other borders intact or was that inevitable. Where would the DDR (or whatever it was called) fall on the spectrum between viable state and failed state.

Thatcher is not going anywhere alone. And even if Britain decide commit military invasion, USA is not going accept that and hardly others too are very happy. And with military occupation it is hard stop people moving to West Germany. Only way would be guard every meter of borderline and shoot everyone who try pass the border. And hardly Western powers are ready to do anything such thing. And they can't guard every border meter whent hem should guard borders of West Germany, Czechoslovakia and Poland. And them should too guard every harbor and airport and take all passports away.
 
Thatcher truly feared a united Germany that might become the dominant economic force in Europe and lord over the UK using the purse strings, but she wasn’t going to go to war over it.
 
Most new countries need an experience of shared sacrifice in a major war to solidify a distinct identity, kind of like a "We have made Italy, now we must make the Italians type of state-building". The experience of anschluss soured Austrians on pan-Germanism, but it would be hard for East Germany to get involved in a major war that isn't world war 3, or see the Bundeswehr as foreign occupiers.

East German had lots of advisors and "advisors" running around in places like Angola and Ethiopia, but East Germany itself was never threatened in those proxy conflicts.

East Germany would be a strange place without reunification. The state would hemorrhage its population to the West, and the self-selection effect of people who stay behind would create a strange political landscape. If there was some kind of shaky democratization, something resembling AfD and Die Linke would play a major role in the party system.

It depends on the amount of economic and political reform involved. In a bad scenario it would become Belarus 2.0, and let dissidents leave in order to keep the party in power the way Cuba does. It could also be a corrupt, unconsolidated democracy like much of the former USSR and the Balkans in the '90s, or eventually stabilize and integrate with the EU.
 
It depends on the amount of economic and political reform involved. In a bad scenario it would become Belarus 2.0, and let dissidents leave in order to keep the party in power the way Cuba does. It could also be a corrupt, unconsolidated democracy like much of the former USSR and the Balkans in the '90s, or eventually stabilize and integrate with the EU.

Would West Germany even accept membership of East Germany? All EU members should agree new members so membership might be difficult to East Germany. Several German politicians just would say "Accept re-unification or East Germany is out of EU."
 
Short of putting a couple of British tank divisions on GDR territory and putting up a government prepped by then

As soon as the red army left there was no way to stop the reunification.
 
What if the allies didn't allow the two Germanies to re-unificate in 1990? How plausible is that?

It's very plausible; reunification is up to the four occupying powers, not the two Germanies. In the Two Plus Four Treaty, Germany had to make concessions, such as military restrictions and resuming reparation payments. All you need is one government to refuse to sign the treaty. And since those four governments have sizable armies in Germany, there's not a lot the GRD or DDR can do.

The treaty was signed on Sept. 12, 1990, about a month after Iraq occupied Kuwait. Many of the troops eventually used to liberate Kuwait were from the NATO armies in Germany. What if negotiations broke down in Summer 1990 and the rhetoric turned nasty. Would the US and UK redeploy those divisions if there's a serious crisis in Germany?
 
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