WI: No Garfield Assassination

What if Charles Guiteau had missed President Garfield and he was able to serve out his full term? How different would his policies be from Chester A. Arthur's? Also, since he is unlikely to duck out of running for a second term like Arthur did, what are his chances of winning reelection?
 
If Garfield hadn't been assassinated, civil service reform might be somewhat delayed--although even the *attempt* at an assassination might be a stimulus for reform. As in OTL, the 1884 presidential election would be very close (the parties being very closely balanced between 1874 and 1894), but I rather doubt Garfield could win a second consecutive term--nobody between Grant and McKinley was able to do so. If Grover Cleveland wins the 1884 election, it's hard to see any long-lasting effects of Garfield having survived, except "butterfly" ones.

One possibility: Maybe President Garfield and his expansion-minded Secretary of State Blaine acquire Mole St. Nicolas, an excellent anchorage commanding the Windward Passage between Haiti and Cuba, from Haiti--something President Arthur and Secretary of State Frelinghuysen were not interested in doing. https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/dfM2NaLg6Xo/NKy4MhY2H1oJ If the US had obtained the Mole, would it have found it necessary to get Guantanamo Bay after the Spanish-American War? After all, it would seem that the Windward Passage could be as easily commanded from the East as from the West. And without Guantanamo, US-Cuban relations might have been significantly different...
 
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