WI: No Garfield and McKinley assassinations

Heavy

Banned
I'm sure this has been discussed many times before, but I'm curious to see what the long-term prospects would be. The assassinations of Garfield and McKinley tend to be overshadowed by those of Lincoln and Kennedy.

If McKinley is not shot by an anarchist and serves his full second term, I presume Roosevelt could win in 1904 and 1908. Would he be more or less likely to try for a third term in 1912?
 
The assassination of Garfield means no transformative Arthur presidency.

And I would say it is less likely that Roosevelt would win the nomination in 1904. Conservative forces would bitterly oppose it.
 
Derek is right that vice presidency was a dead end in those days. mMaybe as a war hero he could get support. If he could win the nomination, he would have won. In 1912, he honors the two term tradition. I assume Taft was selected as Chief Justice in 1910, so Elihu Root would have been his chosen successor. rRoot would have led a united party to victory. a As for Garfield, I am not sure without his Assasination that he could have gotten the Pendelton Act passed. hHe is probably in better health than Arthur.so he runs for reelection. hHe probably runs into the rum, Romanism and rebellion problem.
 
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There's a very good Garfield lives TL that's currently in a bit of a limbo, but Garfield, to put it simply, actually cared about African-Americans and all signs pointed that he would be a very powerful president.

McKinley is the opposite of that; him living butterflies TR getting the top job.
 

Soundgarden

Banned
TR's nomination in 1904 is not guaranteed. He would have been the first VP to run since 1836 if he got it

Teddy Roosevelt was too charismatic and eccentric NOT to be President at some point. If you remember his presidency overshadowed McKinley's assasination, forgetting why he became president to begin with. Its possible he could've outshined McKinley as Vice President if McKinley survived and still ran in 1904.
 
There's a very good Garfield lives TL that's currently in a bit of a limbo, but Garfield, to put it simply, actually cared about African-Americans and all signs pointed that he would be a very powerful president.

McKinley is the opposite of that; him living butterflies TR getting the top job.


I learned about Garfield from a book that was out a few years ago about assassinated presidents. Garfield was apparently one of the most well-read persons to ever inhabit the White House, and, could write in Greek with one hand and in Latin with the other hand simultaneously.

(Googled... "Assassination Vacation," neat book, http://www.amazon.ca/Assassination-Vacation-Sarah-Vowell/dp/074326004X informative and entertaining. See excerpt.)
 
I think Roosevelt still could have gotten the 1904 nomination. It wouldn't be the practically unanimous affair that was OTL, but he'd probably be able to pull off a victory in the convention, and win the general election (though maybe not as a landslide like OTL). Once president, TR would probably become as popular as he was OTL and win reelection in 1908 easily.
 
Teddy Roosevelt was too charismatic and eccentric NOT to be President at some point. QUOTE]

Plenty of charismatic menhave never made it to the White House. And TR was given the Vice-Presidency precisely because it wasn't seen as a springboard to anything higher. It was regarded as a way to get him out of the New York governorship, which really did matter.
 

Soundgarden

Banned
Teddy Roosevelt was too charismatic and eccentric NOT to be President at some point. QUOTE]

Plenty of charismatic menhave never made it to the White House. And TR was given the Vice-Presidency precisely because it wasn't seen as a springboard to anything higher. It was regarded as a way to get him out of the New York governorship, which really did matter.

What I'm saying is, his "larger than life" persona could've given him that boost to be nominated in 1904 as President. Also, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson were Vice Presidents before they ran for President, so even back then, it was a good thing to have on your resume.
 
I wonder how things would have turned out for Charles Guiteau if he never shot Garfield.

Probably still not well, since the poor guy's life was just a huge series of failures, but still a step up from being executed, wouldn't you say?
 
You need a lot more than charisma to win the nomination in the McKinley era. You need establishment support, which TR mostly lacked.

He'd enter the convention without even the united support of New York's delegates, which would hamstring him. Before primary reform, insurgents (which is what TR would be, VP or no) tend to win when their party is in the dumps - think Bryan in 1896 or Willkie in 1940.
 
What I'm saying is, his "larger than life" persona could've given him that boost to be nominated in 1904 as President. Also, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson were Vice Presidents before they ran for President, so even back then, it was a good thing to have on your resume.


The election rules were different then - the runner-up in the Presidential race automatically became VP.

After that rule was changed in 1803, only one sitting VP (Van Buren) was elected POTUS prior to GHW Bush in 1988.
 
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