unprincipled peter
Donor
What if the French and British were able to avoid the French and Indian war? In 1754 and 1755, they unsuccessfully tried to negotiate a settlement. Hand wavium allows them to succeed.
Right around this time, Austria is looking to recover Silesia, realizes Britain isn't going to help and goes looking for an ally. they find one in Russia, who is concerned about the growing power of Prussia. The diplomatic revolution of 1756 finds Austria allied to traditional enemy France, while Britain allies with traditional enemy Prussia. IMO, the revolution was partially driven by the French and Indian War. Both France and Britain recognize they're about to declare war and are looking for backside protection. Eliminate this and it's likely that the revolution becomes more of an evolution. Bottom line, I doubt the reversal of alliances happens quite so abruptly.
So, no formal alliances in 1756. OTL, Britain saw their alliance as a way to keep the F and I war confined to North America, while Prussia saw it as a green light to act aggressively and expand, which held the high likelihood of bringing in Austria. So, if no formal alliances, Prussia probably doesn't act so aggressively.
So, I'm thinking things putter along for a few years. Frederick in Prussia is still ambitious. Maria Theresa is planning for a recovery of Silesia. 1762 rolls around. Elizabeth in Russia dies, Peter takes over. without the shocking retreat from war at the moment of victory, his opponents lose a major opportunity to portray him in poor light to the populace. He's still going to be unpopular with tenuous support and aggressive enemies, but he gains a little bit of lease on life. If I recall correctly, his discovery of Catherine's plot against him causes her to move up the timeline. In this TTL, butterflying away being in the midst of a war at the time of his ascension to the throne causes the plotting and personnel movement to alter in details.
scenario A: Peter manages to defeat the coup. He cozies up to Prussia. Russia goes to war with Denmark to recover schleswig-holstein, while Prussia takes on Saxony. Austria naturally takes on Prussia. France would likely side with Austria. Prussia was an ally in the past, but their growth is now a threat. I'm told that Russia easily taking Denmark is no sure thing, so I'm guessing things get muddled, and this is likely a long war. So, it's basically Austria/France vs Prussia/Russia. Where does Britain fall? they don't have any direct irons in the fire, but they want to keep a balance of power in Europe, plus there's strategic locations in Denmark that they'd prefer to keep out of the hands of the Russians. If they join, their main contribution is going to be monetary, as their sea power isn't of much use in a continental war. Although, if they go up against France, would the French and Indian War, and the battles for India, be back on? In prior continental wars, did Britain take the fight to the colonial sphere? If Peter is as unpopular/inept as he's normally portrayed, another coup attempt is likely. How does the war turn out?
Scenario B: Catherine's coup succeeds. general war is averted. How does Maria Theresa go about getting Silesia?
Right around this time, Austria is looking to recover Silesia, realizes Britain isn't going to help and goes looking for an ally. they find one in Russia, who is concerned about the growing power of Prussia. The diplomatic revolution of 1756 finds Austria allied to traditional enemy France, while Britain allies with traditional enemy Prussia. IMO, the revolution was partially driven by the French and Indian War. Both France and Britain recognize they're about to declare war and are looking for backside protection. Eliminate this and it's likely that the revolution becomes more of an evolution. Bottom line, I doubt the reversal of alliances happens quite so abruptly.
So, no formal alliances in 1756. OTL, Britain saw their alliance as a way to keep the F and I war confined to North America, while Prussia saw it as a green light to act aggressively and expand, which held the high likelihood of bringing in Austria. So, if no formal alliances, Prussia probably doesn't act so aggressively.
So, I'm thinking things putter along for a few years. Frederick in Prussia is still ambitious. Maria Theresa is planning for a recovery of Silesia. 1762 rolls around. Elizabeth in Russia dies, Peter takes over. without the shocking retreat from war at the moment of victory, his opponents lose a major opportunity to portray him in poor light to the populace. He's still going to be unpopular with tenuous support and aggressive enemies, but he gains a little bit of lease on life. If I recall correctly, his discovery of Catherine's plot against him causes her to move up the timeline. In this TTL, butterflying away being in the midst of a war at the time of his ascension to the throne causes the plotting and personnel movement to alter in details.
scenario A: Peter manages to defeat the coup. He cozies up to Prussia. Russia goes to war with Denmark to recover schleswig-holstein, while Prussia takes on Saxony. Austria naturally takes on Prussia. France would likely side with Austria. Prussia was an ally in the past, but their growth is now a threat. I'm told that Russia easily taking Denmark is no sure thing, so I'm guessing things get muddled, and this is likely a long war. So, it's basically Austria/France vs Prussia/Russia. Where does Britain fall? they don't have any direct irons in the fire, but they want to keep a balance of power in Europe, plus there's strategic locations in Denmark that they'd prefer to keep out of the hands of the Russians. If they join, their main contribution is going to be monetary, as their sea power isn't of much use in a continental war. Although, if they go up against France, would the French and Indian War, and the battles for India, be back on? In prior continental wars, did Britain take the fight to the colonial sphere? If Peter is as unpopular/inept as he's normally portrayed, another coup attempt is likely. How does the war turn out?
Scenario B: Catherine's coup succeeds. general war is averted. How does Maria Theresa go about getting Silesia?