I'm guessing France's best bet would have been to help Austria retain dominance within the German confederation, since their attention would always be split between Germany and the Balkans (and possibly Italy). After 1866 that was no longer workable, though.
WI: No Franco-Prussian War
- Thread starter AltoRegnant
- Start date
I'm guessing France's best bet would have been to help Austria retain dominance within the German confederation, since their attention would always be split between Germany and the Balkans (and possibly Italy). After 1866 that was no longer workable, though.
Not sure about that. Would a Germany run from Vienna be any less likely to build a Baghdad railway than one run from Berlin?
Here's my two cents. Sorry if someone has already said this, I'm just doing it completely blind as a test.
The Franco-Prussian war was not pre-mediated by Prussia. That's not to say it wasn't likely. France felt cheated because they were effectively duped into neutrality with a small strip of the Rhineland. Any attempt by Prussia to integrate the South was blocked by France. So either German unity isn't going to extend Southwards or Prussia bribes France with bits of the Rhineland. The first is probably the most likely. If the Spanish Crisis hadn't arisen, Prussia and Bismarck would have still being looking for ways to isolate France and to incorporate the South. So this alternate timeline is hard, but let's say that Bismarck comes to the conclusion that the North German Confederation will suffice, for now, and tensions are brewing but not erupting until 1873. Then Napoleon III dies in January 1873. His son is only 16 and discontent and opposition has being brewing amid the increasing liberalisation of the empire. There are m civil disturbances that erupt upon attempts to crown him and France erupts into civil war. Prussia uses this opportunity to incorporate the South and proclaim the German Empire.
The Franco-Prussian war was not pre-mediated by Prussia. That's not to say it wasn't likely. France felt cheated because they were effectively duped into neutrality with a small strip of the Rhineland. Any attempt by Prussia to integrate the South was blocked by France. So either German unity isn't going to extend Southwards or Prussia bribes France with bits of the Rhineland. The first is probably the most likely. If the Spanish Crisis hadn't arisen, Prussia and Bismarck would have still being looking for ways to isolate France and to incorporate the South. So this alternate timeline is hard, but let's say that Bismarck comes to the conclusion that the North German Confederation will suffice, for now, and tensions are brewing but not erupting until 1873. Then Napoleon III dies in January 1873. His son is only 16 and discontent and opposition has being brewing amid the increasing liberalisation of the empire. There are m civil disturbances that erupt upon attempts to crown him and France erupts into civil war. Prussia uses this opportunity to incorporate the South and proclaim the German Empire.
If the Hungarians get any say, then I'd wager they'd be a lot less likely to splurge on things like that. Their influence would likely mean a lot less in this scenario, but still.
The Hungarians would be keen to limit Russian influence in the Balkans. They can't have their Slav subjects getting ideas. So they might back the railway.
One can't underestimate their short-sightedness, though. They could barely be persuaded to fund an army.
Or he collars them in 1878 when everyone else is preoccupied with the Russo-Turkish War.
In that situation neither Britain nor Russia can afford to push the NGC into the other camp, so if the French decide to fight, they must fight alone.
I don't think this is realistic. More likely is that the death of Napoléon III completes the transition to constitutional monarchy. The hard-core monarchists and republicans are upset but most of the population accepts this, as they accepted the Republic OTL.
The Reason I had a collapse is people forget just how much trouble the Empire was in in 1870. The reason Prussia became a bogeyman was partly to save the empire.
There is a lot of revisionism about the Second Empire. There was some opposition, of course, especially in Paris (which had been under massive reconstruction for 20 years which displaced a lot of people) but the Bonapartists won easily in the 1869 legislative elections, and then the voters overwhelmingly supported the constitutional reforms in the 1870 referendum.
Napoléon III's downfall became a fait accompli after he was taken prisoner at Sedan. Otherwise, even if France had lost, it is far from certain he would have been deposed.