Prior to the Franco-Hova Wars, and its annexation by the French Empire, the Merina Kingdom of Madagascar was possibly the most modernised independent nation in Africa; considerably more than Abyssinia, and debatedly even more so than the indebted Liberia. In an ATL where the Franco-Hova Wars are averted somehow, how far can the Kingdom of Madagascar go from there? Would it merely clear the way for another colonial nation to annex it later on? Would it merely become a puppet state of France or Great Britain, with a comparable level of independence to Afghanistan after the 2nd Anglo-Afghan War? Could it be capable of maintaining its independence through diplomatic wrangling, exploiting the balance of power between competing European colonial powers and offering concessions in a similar manner to Thailand or Iran? Or might Madagascar even have a chance of bringing its modernisation efforts to fruition, essentially becoming the African analogue to Japan?