WI: No F-16 Exports

[wietze]

I think the Netherlands, Danemark and Norway would still buy american (F-18L ? F-20 ?) , in the name of NATO.

i doubt it, in the netherlands the lockheed scandal would still be fresh, and this would be seen as just another way of the us to screw over the allies.

The Saab Viggen would be another serious contender (maybe even a completely european version with either the Roll royce RB177 medway engine or the Bristol Siddeley Olympus 22R)

 

[Blue cat]

The restrictions applies to all US front line military equipment - exports had to be less capable than the version in US service. So no F-16A/B, no F-15, no F-18... I'm not sure whether NATO/ANZUS would be affected in the same way, but Iran certainly would have been.

I believe this is the policy document in question.

http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/documents/pddirectives/pd13.pdf

It states that NATO nations (and some others including ANZUS nations) were exempted.

 

[Archibald]

i doubt it, in the netherlands the lockheed scandal would still be fresh, and this would be seen as just another way of the us to screw over the allies.

The Saab Viggen would be another serious contender (maybe even a completely european version with either the Roll royce RB177 medway engine or the Bristol Siddeley Olympus 22R)

I think the Lockheed bribery scandal exploded in summer 1976. The Deal of the Century went to the F-16 in June 1974.
That explains why the four NATO countries bought F-16.

The Viggen was one hell of fighter, but it was hampered by its foreign engine.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

Agreed the F-20 becomes the American export aircraft of choice.

Perhaps General Dynamics sells out to who? Boeing earlier.

 

[wietze]

The Viggen was one hell of fighter, but it was hampered by its foreign engine.

if you look at the wiki for the viggen you see that the JT8 it got was actually third choice, the preferred engines being british.
also one option not mentioned is the french M53, an engine that would have worked with the viggen as well.

The Olympus would have been a good choice too.

 

[Usili]

I think the Lockheed bribery scandal exploded in summer 1976. The Deal of the Century went to the F-16 in June 1974.
That explains why the four NATO countries bought F-16.

Actually, the Lockheed Bribery Scandal was unrelated to the F-16, since the F-16 was produced by General Dynamics; and it [Lockheed Bribery Scandal] was related to the F-104 Starfighter and L-1011 Tristar

 

[TFSmith121]

Thanks. Reading between the lines

I believe this is the policy document in question.

http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/documents/pddirectives/pd13.pdf

It states that NATO nations (and some others including ANZUS nations) were exempted.

Reading between the lines, on first glance, all NATO signatories - including France and Greece - as well as Japan, Israel, Australia, and New Zealand would continue to have access to what the US uses, with the expected restrictions on special weapons, needs of the ally, co-production, etc.

The Allies and neutrals that would have access to a lower tier would include all the Latin American nations (even the Rio Treaty signatories), the European non-NATO allies (including Spain, despite the bilateral agreements), the ROK and ROC and ROP (despite the bilateral agreements), the Western-oriented nations in SW Asia and North Africa, any remaining elements of CENTO and SEATO, and any other power looking for US MDAP support...

So, the F-20 presumably goes forward, and various older US types (F-4, F-5, F-8, A-4, A-7) are presumably available as well, based on airframe availability for rebuilds or whatever new production capacity might still be available in the mid-70a.

Realistically, not s huge change from reality in Carter's first term; the major sales outside the parameters sketched above came under Reagan, so the first really large opportunities for Dassault would come in the 1980s.

You'd have to look at procurements country by country to see what was available at any given time.

Best,

 

[RLBH]

If the F-16 never exports then no deal of the century - for the record, 348 F-16s to four european nations.
In this world the Mirage 2000 would not exists, because as of 1973-74 (before the deal of the century went to the F-16) Dassault next light fighter beyond the Mirage III was to be a Mirage F1 with the more powerful M53, the F1E. It was killed when it lost the Deal of the Century, and the 2000 flew in April 1978.
Had the F-16 not been exported in time, the Mirage F1E would have entered service with the Armée de l'Air and the Belgian Air Force - a Belgian F-1E deal was nearly settled in the fall of 1973, but a change in government gave the F-16 a welcome relieve (it flew only in February 1974).

Essentially reinventing the Mirage F2, no?

I believe this is the policy document in question.

http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/documents/pddirectives/pd13.pdf

It states that NATO nations (and some others including ANZUS nations) were exempted.

Good find! That makes it much clearer what would and wouldn't be affected.

 

[Archibald]

Essentially reinventing the Mirage F2, no?

More or less. At least the F1 has a French engine, making it easier to export. The F2 had a TF-30 which was not the most reliable jet engine (ask the F-111 and Tomcat drivers).
Oh, and a third buyer might be the French Navy to replace both Crusaders and Etendard IVs - say goodbye to OTL Super Etendard.
In fact the F1-M53 was first considered by the French Navy. The basic F1 already lack powers with the Atar 9K50 - a navalized variant would be heavier and even more underpowered. So the French Navy wanted the M53.

A decade ago on another forum I did a TL where the F1-M53 pulled a Rafale in the late 70's.
By pulling a Rafale I mean that it replaced most of the Armée de l'Air and Aéronovale combat fleets.
The F1-M53 replaced
- Jaguars
- the extended Mirage III family
- the Atar F1s
- the Crusaders
- the Etendard IVs
It also killed both Mirage 2000 and Super Etendard.

The Aéronavale had 42 Crusaders and 71 Etendards total 113 fast jets. As for the Armée de l'Air they wanted a 450 combat aircraft fleet.
Imagine if the F1-M53 replace them all - 450 + 113 = 563 aircrafts.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

If Mirage F-1 winning the Deal of the Century prevents the Mirage 2000 does that also mean that there is no Mirage 4000?

If no F-16 exports also means no exports of the F-15 and F-18 countries that bought those aircraft might prefer the Mirage 4000 to Tornado as a substitute.

 

[Archibald]

If the 2000 is gone, so it the 4000. Fortunately the F-1E had its own "4000" - the ACF, Avion de Combat Futur.

The ACF was very narrowly tied to the Mirage F1E. When the deal of the century got lost, the ACF died as too expensive. One prototype was build but never achieved - and was scrapped.
Dassault went back to the drawing board with the 2000 and the 4000, and history repeated itself - the 4000 died, the 2000 was build for the AdA.