WI: No Expulsion of the Moriscos?

I'm doing some more research for The Prince of Peace, so I think naturally I should turn to the Moriscos. Spain is united in this TL by the Aviz through a surviving Miguel da Paz. I'm curious on the effects of a different dynasty might have on the Moriscos. As far as my TL goes, the first rising of the Mudéjars still happened in 1499, so Isabella and Ferdinand certainly revoked the religious toleration promised under the Treaties of Granada, leading to conversions and exiles from Spain. Certainly there would still be many cypto-Muslims as IOTL.

I figured the Aviz in my TL might take a more careless attitude regarding the Moriscos. While they certainly aren't going to restore the liberties promised in 1492, I don't see any pressing reason for them to ban Arabic, Islamic dress, and many other superflous bans that Philip II passed. Of course, if Spain suffered some serious crisis, I could see the alternate monarchy perusing persecution as a means of a scape-goat. I don't know too much about the situation beyond some light wiki-reading, so if anyone has any books about them, feel free to suggest them.

Either way even if the state isn't actively persecuting them, the Morsicos would still suffer prejudice from the common people: so I wonder that even if the crown doesn't want to press matters, they might be inclined to do so. At least in the 14th and 15th century, Castilian resentment against the Jews lead to persecution of them by the crown. So I wonder if something similar might occur. After all, the Inquisition is still around and going to be active even under the Aviz. Popular prejudices die hard, and if say, a Catholic fell on hard times, he might rat out his Morisco neighbors especially if there is competition for jobs for instance.

I'm just looking for the broad effects on no expulsion; I know a sort of brain drained happened and many Moriscos had technical skills (perhaps emulating France's own drain decades later when they expelled the Huguenots) and were also considered quite well off. Aragon and Valencia found their economies severely hampered, but I believe when the expulsion happened IOTL, the economies of the region were already beginning to stagnate. Could the Moriscos perhaps play a role in proto-industrialization, perhaps with fabric mills or something of the sort? Spain had a large problem with consumption, considering much money was spent importing manufactured goods that Spain did not produce, and whilst most early modern economies were fairly closed and mercantile, Spain was even more so. As the Aviz Spain won't decline as severely as the Habsburgs, I could see the Morsicos playing an important role in trade and industry.

I suppose we could also use this topic to talk about the Marranos (Jews who had been forced to convert to Catholicism). The big reason I'm asking this is that on the whole, the Aviz dynasty of the early 16th century seemed fairly unconcerned with the Jews in Portugal: the main reason for their expulsion was so that Manuel I could marry Isabella, the Princess of Asturias. I think once he comes into the inheritance of Castile and Aragon, he won't be too concerned with the Marranos and Moriscos.
 
They might still be concerned. Remember we're talking about early state formation--the Jews and Muslims are so "different" from the majority of the population.

You're right about Aragon stagnating even prior to the unification. In fact the decline had set in since the Black Death and it was only now recovering, but of course there were now other factors hampering it. That said, obviously you're going to have a lot more capital (unless the crown taxes it away) to invest in. Perhaps a law that requires Jews and Muslims if they invest money, to invest in Catholic owned ventures?

Also remember one reason that there was no early manufacturing in Castile was because the wool merchants could export raw wool to Italy and get back cloth while making them stupendously wealthy. They had no need to industrialize to make money, and Spain doesn't have the best river system for it. Even the floating and bridge built watermills weren't as numerous as elsewhere. What's Portugal's pastoral economy like? Can Aviz break the back of the stock-ranching interests that were death on development of the interior?

Remember the Inquisition was initially directed mostly at cryptos, so if there are less of them the Inquisition will probably concern itself mostly with Catholic heresies which were not stamped out as thoroughly beforehand due to practical necessity. The problem of course is as you pointed out: neighbors that have grievances. A lot of the converts from Judaism in the early 1400s were voluntary after they lost the debates according to Norman Roth, but they got persecuted anyway.

Finally, what about the Ottomans? If Spain engages in a big struggle with them for North Africa, the Ottomans are going to stir up trouble among the Muslims and probably succeed at least once. So there's another incentive to boot them out.
 
If they boot them out, a lot of those Moriscos are going to end up helping the Ottoman Empire anyways as in OTL.
 
They might still be concerned. Remember we're talking about early state formation--the Jews and Muslims are so "different" from the majority of the population.

You're right about Aragon stagnating even prior to the unification. In fact the decline had set in since the Black Death and it was only now recovering, but of course there were now other factors hampering it. That said, obviously you're going to have a lot more capital (unless the crown taxes it away) to invest in. Perhaps a law that requires Jews and Muslims if they invest money, to invest in Catholic owned ventures?

Also remember one reason that there was no early manufacturing in Castile was because the wool merchants could export raw wool to Italy and get back cloth while making them stupendously wealthy. They had no need to industrialize to make money, and Spain doesn't have the best river system for it. Even the floating and bridge built watermills weren't as numerous as elsewhere. What's Portugal's pastoral economy like? Can Aviz break the back of the stock-ranching interests that were death on development of the interior?

Remember the Inquisition was initially directed mostly at cryptos, so if there are less of them the Inquisition will probably concern itself mostly with Catholic heresies which were not stamped out as thoroughly beforehand due to practical necessity. The problem of course is as you pointed out: neighbors that have grievances. A lot of the converts from Judaism in the early 1400s were voluntary after they lost the debates according to Norman Roth, but they got persecuted anyway.

Finally, what about the Ottomans? If Spain engages in a big struggle with them for North Africa, the Ottomans are going to stir up trouble among the Muslims and probably succeed at least once. So there's another incentive to boot them out.

I agree, they're still 'different' so there will still be problems. You're quite right with Early Modern nations, they tended to be prejudiced against those who were different, hence the persecution of those who held different beliefs, while also trying to unite the people through a common faith (re: the Elizabethan Church reforms of OTL and later persecution of Catholics).

I like the idea of forcing investment, but I wonder if those with the capital might not be inclined to do so if they 'have' to invest in Catholic ventures. You're right regarding Castile though, with the wool ranchers (what was the name of the wool guild that dominated Castile?); the river system isn't the best and I don't think the crown would try and break the backs of the Portuguese rancher interests. After all, they don't have hindsight, so if something is working and bringing in money, why try and shake it up? Although Castile isn't really suited for mills, I wonder if Aragon is? In the late 18th century, Catalonia actually had a pretty booming fabric industry centered around Barcelona. While obviously it's a different period (right on the cusp of the actual industrial revolution, with the power looms, ect), I think it shows potential. If a market could be created, the Castilians could also begin to sell their wool to magnates in Aragon, who could see it fashioned into fabrics. If it's high quality, I could see it making potential profits, especially in the Mediterranean basin. Catalonia also had plenty of light industry going on in the same period, such as wineries: so these could be solutions to an earlier revival of the economy of the region, especially once the trade economy of the Aragonese Empire in the Med tanks.

That's a good point about the Inquisition too. I think once Cisneros is dead, the Inquisition might focus more on Catholic heresies, which will give the Moriscos and Marranos some relief. With the Reformation, it'll be a very important issue. Lower Navarre is still held by the Kingdom of Navarre and that tiny kingdom ends up embracing the Huguenot religion. While the Aviz aren't as heterodox as the Habsburgs and aren't fighting across Europe championing the Catholic cause, I think they'd still be concerned with the spread of heresies into their own kingdom. Even though Navarre does draw closer to Spain, it's more of convenience. Spain also maintains pretty cordial relations with England, so there's also trade markets to consider there.

Spain in this scenario has several enclaves in North Africa, and they especially hold many forts in what's now Morocco too. They aren't really embroiled in any conflict with the Ottomans (they have bigger fish to fry in the east), but relations are frosty. The Ottomans probably still take control over North Africa and probably finance the Barbary Pirates, so there would still be some low-key conflict, as Spain would take a pro-active stance against piracy. France probably has cordial relations with the Turk as well, which provides another incentive. Spain and France have very terrible relations throughout the 16th century of my TL.

If they boot them out, a lot of those Moriscos are going to end up helping the Ottoman Empire anyways as in OTL.

Possibly. But the situations are different. We're not dealing with the Ultra-Catholic Habsburgs. Most Moriscos tended to emmigrate to North Africa anyways. Very few actually went further east. The Ottomans also are also pretty busy with Persia, and actually have a pretty extensive shakeup in the late 16th century of my TL, so I'm not sure the Ottomans would be able to help the Moriscos as extensively as they did OTL.
 
@Drago: Not necessarily. Recently I quoted something from Osman's dream about how the Moriscos who went to the Ottomans brought printing but Bayezid II and Selim actually outlawed printing and made the penalty death. I don't that would happen that often, but you can always miss opportunities.

I like the idea of forcing investment, but I wonder if those with the capital might not be inclined to do so if they 'have' to invest in Catholic ventures. You're right regarding Castile though, with the wool ranchers (what was the name of the wool guild that dominated Castile?); the river system isn't the best and I don't think the crown would try and break the backs of the Portuguese rancher interests. After all, they don't have hindsight, so if something is working and bringing in money, why try and shake it up? Although Castile isn't really suited for mills, I wonder if Aragon is? In the late 18th century, Catalonia actually had a pretty booming fabric industry centered around Barcelona. While obviously it's a different period (right on the cusp of the actual industrial revolution, with the power looms, ect), I think it shows potential. If a market could be created, the Castilians could also begin to sell their wool to magnates in Aragon, who could see it fashioned into fabrics. If it's high quality, I could see it making potential profits, especially in the Mediterranean basin. Catalonia also had plenty of light industry going on in the same period, such as wineries: so these could be solutions to an earlier revival of the economy of the region, especially once the trade economy of the Aragonese Empire in the Med tanks.
The guild was the Mesta Real/Honrado Concejo de la Mesta de los Pastores del Reino, from the Berber "meshta."

The thing about mills though is competitiveness. Even if you can build a lot of mills in Aragon (and I don't know specifically, maybe you can) can they compete with the Italians are doing? Flanders did but they had a source of supply in England so it was much easier to just ship it across the channel and they started earlier. There was time to develop equivalent quality. In the Raptor of Spain I actually had the Spaniards utterly harrow Tuscany and parts of Lombardy specifically to do massive damage to the native textile industry and cart off the expertise back home.

Anyhow, question: Can the crown operate or convince others to operate the mills at a loss until they get up to speed? You mentioned a market for textiles. At first the rich guys will buy fancy stuff from Flanders/Italy if at all possible. The way the Portuguese administered their Indian possessions makes me doubtful of their general business sense.

Okay, I don't want to be a wet blanket and you know I like your TL, but these are some questions I thought of and that I'm dealing with as well in the future of my TL.

Good luck!

ED: Ah, about the investment. What if they have to invest a portion in Catholic owned ventures (like so many reals a year)? Perhaps that's too hard to keep track of. Or maybe they just have to contribute a specific "productive tax" that the officials then distribute to industry as subsidies? Though that runs the risk of massive corruption...
 
The Moriscos were the major source of investment because their thrift and hard work made them the only sound place to invest left in Spain, which is why once they were expelled the whole concept of sensible investment all but ended in Spain.


The Moriscos didn't so much emigrate to North Africa as be shipped there against their wills and since they were almost without exception genuine Catholics the result for most was death or slavery.
 
@Drago: Not necessarily. Recently I quoted something from Osman's dream about how the Moriscos who went to the Ottomans brought printing but Bayezid II and Selim actually outlawed printing and made the penalty death. I don't that would happen that often, but you can always miss opportunities.

The guild was the Mesta Real/Honrado Concejo de la Mesta de los Pastores del Reino, from the Berber "meshta."

The thing about mills though is competitiveness. Even if you can build a lot of mills in Aragon (and I don't know specifically, maybe you can) can they compete with the Italians are doing? Flanders did but they had a source of supply in England so it was much easier to just ship it across the channel and they started earlier. There was time to develop equivalent quality. In the Raptor of Spain I actually had the Spaniards utterly harrow Tuscany and parts of Lombardy specifically to do massive damage to the native textile industry and cart off the expertise back home.

Anyhow, question: Can the crown operate or convince others to operate the mills at a loss until they get up to speed? You mentioned a market for textiles. At first the rich guys will buy fancy stuff from Flanders/Italy if at all possible. The way the Portuguese administered their Indian possessions makes me doubtful of their general business sense.

Okay, I don't want to be a wet blanket and you know I like your TL, but these are some questions I thought of and that I'm dealing with as well in the future of my TL.

Good luck!

ED: Ah, about the investment. What if they have to invest a portion in Catholic owned ventures (like so many reals a year)? Perhaps that's too hard to keep track of. Or maybe they just have to contribute a specific "productive tax" that the officials then distribute to industry as subsidies? Though that runs the risk of massive corruption...

I agree that it would run the risk of corruption... I like the idea of a sort of subsidy tax though. Even if it runs the risk of being corrupted, most early modern societies were pretty corrupt by today's standards anyways. As long as some of the money is going where it's supposed too, I don't think it'd be an issue. Maybe the tax could be handled by tax farmers. I don't know if Spain had that tradition ala France, but maybe they could take a page from their book--those who gather the tax can pocket half of the proceeds or something. Still quite corrupt, but at least there'd be a little incentive. It might also placate Catholics too, as they'd be collecting it from the Moriscos and Marranos. A way of 'making things right' so to speak.

You make a lot of good points and I appreciate you for bringing them up. It's actually got me thinking: it's clear that there wouldn't be any change in Spanish consumption habits simply because a different monarchy in charge; I believe Portugal had the same problems as Spain in that they didn't manufacture many things and bought abroad. I think the only way to get some sort of native manufactures going is for Spain to be cut off from her usual markets in the Low Countries and Italy. I am planning a sort of late 16th century conflict that embroils the Empire--maybe Italy could be involved too, and we could see Tuscany and Lombardy become the battlefields of French and Imperial armies once more.

Spanish mercantile interests could start up something to supply their needs. It'd certainly make a subsidy tax more reasonable, and it would be reasonable for the crown to subsidize these industries when they are necessary. Perhaps the Spanish fabric industry gets it's start to make uniforms for the Spanish army, for instance, and once the conflict is over begins to make exports. Even once the industries of Tuscany begin to recover, perhaps Catalonian fabrics have already surpassed them in quality and are maybe more readily available. Italy's economy was already in decline since the discovery of India, so it wouldn't take too much to further set it back.
 
I agree that it would run the risk of corruption... I like the idea of a sort of subsidy tax though. Even if it runs the risk of being corrupted, most early modern societies were pretty corrupt by today's standards anyways. As long as some of the money is going where it's supposed too, I don't think it'd be an issue. Maybe the tax could be handled by tax farmers. I don't know if Spain had that tradition ala France, but maybe they could take a page from their book--those who gather the tax can pocket half of the proceeds or something. Still quite corrupt, but at least there'd be a little incentive. It might also placate Catholics too, as they'd be collecting it from the Moriscos and Marranos. A way of 'making things right' so to speak.

You make a lot of good points and I appreciate you for bringing them up. It's actually got me thinking: it's clear that there wouldn't be any change in Spanish consumption habits simply because a different monarchy in charge; I believe Portugal had the same problems as Spain in that they didn't manufacture many things and bought abroad. I think the only way to get some sort of native manufactures going is for Spain to be cut off from her usual markets in the Low Countries and Italy. I am planning a sort of late 16th century conflict that embroils the Empire--maybe Italy could be involved too, and we could see Tuscany and Lombardy become the battlefields of French and Imperial armies once more.

Spanish mercantile interests could start up something to supply their needs. It'd certainly make a subsidy tax more reasonable, and it would be reasonable for the crown to subsidize these industries when they are necessary. Perhaps the Spanish fabric industry gets it's start to make uniforms for the Spanish army, for instance, and once the conflict is over begins to make exports. Even once the industries of Tuscany begin to recover, perhaps Catalonian fabrics have already surpassed them in quality and are maybe more readily available. Italy's economy was already in decline since the discovery of India, so it wouldn't take too much to further set it back.


Regarding the role of Spain in the european wool-textile market, I agree that changing the dinasty wouldn't change the consumption habits. But I also think that those consumption habits are, at a large extent, the colateral result of certain power struggles. The history of La Mesta since its creation as a "centralized" organ is indeed a good summary of that struggle, considering the actors that were involved for and against. Though on its origin Alfonso X concieved it, amongst other things, as a tool to balance different opposed interests by civilised ways, it evolved in a different way. La Mesta was an instution controled by the nobility, who owned the major part of the castilian livestock. So, their final victory in the struggles between the nobility and the cities that so much trouble caused in Castille in the 1400's and early 1500's has a direct correlation with the "abortion" of the castilian textile industry. In a recent thread about the possibility of an early industrial Spain we discussed a bit about it, if you can find it perhaps there is something useful for you. Of course, I say this without detriment for MNP's points. Probably those factors he mentions gave an advantage to the nobility and the wool exporters in this struggle. So, changing the political correlations, and tehre is several PODs to make it possible, you have potential to change those consumption habits.


Regarding the possible role of the moriscos in an eventual process of proto-industrialization. Indeed most of them had become rural population at the 1500's* which, in order to be able to pay the dues to their lords, often completed their economies with artisan works and traffic of merchandises (often with products produced by christians and by order of those producers, as traginers or trajineros, so you have here perhaps a seed for further joint ventures with "old christians") This was specially pronuncied in the crown of Aragon. In some parts of Extremadura however we have also entire morisco communities specialized in wholesale trade.

But this means also that a majority of moriscos lived in lands of "señorío", under nobiliary jurisdiction, instead of lands of "realengo" under royal jurisdiction, as were the main cities. So, while of course those are clearly a target population to be involved in a process of proto-inustrialization in this scenario, we would need a certain political equilibre to make the situation stable. There were conflicts between the artisans of the guilds and the nobility and their morisco vassals in OTL precissely due to what, in modern words, was percieved as "disloyal competence" by the urban artisans, since this rural morisco workforce was cheaper and non-regulated. Those conflicts overlaped with the rivalries between cities and nobility. This is not totally unlike in other parts of Europe, where the guilds also percieved this rural artisanal production as a threat. But add the religious and identitary factor to the laboral and political conflict and the mix is explosive, as happened for example during the Revolt of the "Germanias" in Valencia, when there were terrible violences against the moriscos made by the burghers rised against the nobles, invoquing these same reasons.

Regarding special taxations, if i have understood correctly you and MNP, I think it was more or less the case in OTL through the jewish and moorish aljamas. Though it's improtant to ote that despite on the paper the aljamas were under royal jurisdiction, with the time the nobiliar jurisdictions managed to affect the aljamas and their taxation in the lands of señorío. Latter, the moriscos, though theoretically they had joined the same fiscal and legal status of the other christians, had to pay ocasionally special taxes, the "servicios moriscos", to the crown. Special here means thus that they had separate fiscal and legal status in the Ancien Régime structure. If needed, that existing structure could be, ah, squeezed. Of course, nobiliar and royal jurisdictions would affect this.

The corruption, as said, would be the norm, as it was in OTL, specially since the jewish before the expulsion and the morisco oligarchies were very often involved in the collection of taxes and not in unfriendly terms with the local "old christian" oligarchies. But yes, it was part of the early modern societies.

Finally, a general consideration to take into account in your TL is that the Moriscos were not a so homogenous group. Besides the natural viariations of whealth, gender etc that exists inside every human group, there were also differences depending on the kingdom, region, jurisdiction and landscape where they lived. So, for example, the long-time descendants of the mudejares further north were more hispanized than the granadian moriscos more recently "incorporated" to the christian societies, and in many cases the former were following an slow but continous process of total assimilation and integration in their surrounding areas. We have even widespread reactions of solidarity from their "old christian" neighbours after the decree of expulsion in Catalonia and Old Castille. Also, after the conquest of Granada, many granadians spreaded all around the crown of Castile joining the local mudejar-morisco communities, with the subsequent impact inside and outside the communities, probably stimulating the image of the morisco as "the other" in many places.

*It's something a bit more complex.In short, they were majoritarylli rural population in the south and mediterranean coast, where incidentally was also the bulk of the morisco population. Meanwhile in the central plateau most of them lived in cities and in other parts like Extremadura and Navarre their situation was diverse.

Cheers.
 
I'm just looking for the broad effects on no expulsion; I know a sort of brain drained happened and many Moriscos had technical skills (perhaps emulating France's own drain decades later when they expelled the Huguenots) and were also considered quite well off. Aragon and Valencia found their economies severely hampered, but I believe when the expulsion happened IOTL, the economies of the region were already beginning to stagnate. Could the Moriscos perhaps play a role in proto-industrialization, perhaps with fabric mills or something of the sort? Spain had a large problem with consumption, considering much money was spent importing manufactured goods that Spain did not produce, and whilst most early modern economies were fairly closed and mercantile, Spain was even more so. As the Aviz Spain won't decline as severely as the Habsburgs, I could see the Morsicos playing an important role in trade and industry.

I've been trying to write down why this scenario doesn't work for a while now, since the matter is complicated, until I realized Niko had already hit the nail: The situation of the Moriscos is very different when you look at the center and north of Spain, and when you look at the south and east. Reasons go centuries back.

The original 711 Muslim invasion was very sudden and was followed by only a handful of conversions by oportunistic Gothic nobles. The number of beneficies to Muslims under Caliphal administration, of course, tended to increase the number of conversions over time, but Al-Andalus as a whole didn't go from majority Christian to majority Muslim until about 200 years later. In the northwest, were the Christian kingdoms expanded early, this process never took place. The countryside remained full Christian both under Muslim and Christian rule, and so did the majority of the cities (which were smaller than those in the south and east anyway).

As the Reconquista continued to the center of the Peninsula, the Muslims were a bigger but not full minority. In the countryside, the Muslims were replaced by Christian peasants coming from the north. Not necessarily because they were expelled. Many times it was them who decided to leave for Muslim-held areas. In the cities you have a mix of cases: some decided to capitulate with no resistance, and so the original population (Christian, Jewish, Muslim) remained - case in point Toledo. In those that resisted, the inhabitants were forced to leave after conquest.

By the collapse of Almohad rule you have a completely different situation. Christian armies advanced so fast in Valencia and Andalusia during the 13th century that the immigration of Christian peasants could not keep up. Thus, while full or almost full Muslim cities population now, who universally resisted, were forced to leave, the rural population was forced to stay, and work the massive latifundia created for the nobles that took part in the campaigns. The vast majority of Muslims and later Moriscos left in the Peninsula were thus concentrated to the south and east, and were farmers and field peons.

So what happened when Christian peasants did later arrive to these lands? They found the field jobs filled by the Moriscos. And the nobles damn sure were happy with these situations. The Moriscos could not say no. They were serfs. They could not claim the same rights as the "Old Christians", and in essence worked more for less money. The "Old Christians" were in turn furious at the Moriscos, since they saw them as unfair competition. So what could they do?

What else, but call the Inquisition to stir some shit up, find ways to "prove" that the Moriscos' conversion to Christianity was bogus and in essence bully them out of a place, forcing the local noble to hire "Old Christians". Then you have this each time more surreal demands pilling one over another such as banning Arabic writing and clothing, and in turn Morisco revolts that only gave their enemies more arguments to harass them.

It's easy to see why the Duke of Lerma though that scapegoating the Moriscos in 1609 was a good idea. He was from Burgos, in the heart of Old Castile. To him, Moriscos were something between scarce and completely absent, a bunch of anachronistic city fellows you could get rid of and nobody would notice. Nobles from Valencia and Andalusia had a very different opinion on the matter and exposed it to the King with energy, to no avail. They knew very well that if the massive Morisco populations in these lands disappeared, there wouldn't be enough of those "Old Christians" stirring shit up to replace the whole of them. And so it happened. After the Moriscos left, a lot of fields were left barren, and the agricultural production plummeted, specially in Valencia.

Thus the effects of the expulsion of the Moriscos were catastrophic not because it meant a "brain drainage" or a loss of skilled engineers or enterpreneurs. This is 600 years after the Caliphate. Those things a city Morisco knew, a city Old Christian knew as well, and vice versa. It was because it meant a catastrophic loss of peasants and in turn of crops. Food production could not meet demand in the following decades and caused famine, which in consequence hardened the impact of plagues that hit Spain by the middle of the century. The loss of population in Castile, which was already contibuted by the wars in Flanders and the emigration to America, made it harder to maintain the whole Empire over her shoulders, which lead to Olivares' attempts to share the burden with other kingdoms, and caused in turn the rebellions in Naples, Catalonia and Portugal.

So yeah, kudos Lerma. Great job here. :rolleyes:
 
Spain in this scenario has several enclaves in North Africa, and they especially hold many forts in what's now Morocco too. They aren't really embroiled in any conflict with the Ottomans (they have bigger fish to fry in the east), but relations are frosty. The Ottomans probably still take control over North Africa and probably finance the Barbary Pirates, so there would still be some low-key conflict, as Spain would take a pro-active stance against piracy. France probably has cordial relations with the Turk as well, which provides another incentive. Spain and France have very terrible relations throughout the 16th century of my TL.

I don't know how far have you got into your TL, but if you have not arrived there, you have to consider that the absence of German and Dutch distractions leaves Spain more committed to the Mediterranean, and that the whole of the Maghrebi coast from Melilla to Tripoli had been subjected to some degree of Spanish influence during the reign of Ferdinand II. The drifting of the region into the Ottoman orbit was not a result of the Turks merely showing up and setting shop there - there were wars between Turkish and Spanish-propped factions. Eventually, the Turks won, and while this was probably the likelier outcome, you have to wonder how much Charles V's attitude contributed to it, always coming in late and in general badly prepared (case in point, Algiers).
 
I've been trying to write down why this scenario doesn't work for a while now, since the matter is complicated, until I realized Niko had already hit the nail: The situation of the Moriscos is very different when you look at the center and north of Spain, and when you look at the south and east. Reasons go centuries back.

The original 711 Muslim invasion was very sudden and was followed by only a handful of conversions by oportunistic Gothic nobles. The number of beneficies to Muslims under Caliphal administration, of course, tended to increase the number of conversions over time, but Al-Andalus as a whole didn't go from majority Christian to majority Muslim until about 200 years later. In the northwest, were the Christian kingdoms expanded early, this process never took place. The countryside remained full Christian both under Muslim and Christian rule, and so did the majority of the cities (which were smaller than those in the south and east anyway).

As the Reconquista continued to the center of the Peninsula, the Muslims were a bigger but not full minority. In the countryside, the Muslims were replaced by Christian peasants coming from the north. Not necessarily because they were expelled. Many times it was them who decided to leave for Muslim-held areas. In the cities you have a mix of cases: some decided to capitulate with no resistance, and so the original population (Christian, Jewish, Muslim) remained - case in point Toledo. In those that resisted, the inhabitants were forced to leave after conquest.

By the collapse of Almohad rule you have a completely different situation. Christian armies advanced so fast in Valencia and Andalusia during the 13th century that the immigration of Christian peasants could not keep up. Thus, while full or almost full Muslim cities population now, who universally resisted, were forced to leave, the rural population was forced to stay, and work the massive latifundia created for the nobles that took part in the campaigns. The vast majority of Muslims and later Moriscos left in the Peninsula were thus concentrated to the south and east, and were farmers and field peons.

So what happened when Christian peasants did later arrive to these lands? They found the field jobs filled by the Moriscos. And the nobles damn sure were happy with these situations. The Moriscos could not say no. They were serfs. They could not claim the same rights as the "Old Christians", and in essence worked more for less money. The "Old Christians" were in turn furious at the Moriscos, since they saw them as unfair competition. So what could they do?

What else, but call the Inquisition to stir some shit up, find ways to "prove" that the Moriscos' conversion to Christianity was bogus and in essence bully them out of a place, forcing the local noble to hire "Old Christians". Then you have this each time more surreal demands pilling one over another such as banning Arabic writing and clothing, and in turn Morisco revolts that only gave their enemies more arguments to harass them.

It's easy to see why the Duke of Lerma though that scapegoating the Moriscos in 1609 was a good idea. He was from Burgos, in the heart of Old Castile. To him, Moriscos were something between scarce and completely absent, a bunch of anachronistic city fellows you could get rid of and nobody would notice. Nobles from Valencia and Andalusia had a very different opinion on the matter and exposed it to the King with energy, to no avail. They knew very well that if the massive Morisco populations in these lands disappeared, there wouldn't be enough of those "Old Christians" stirring shit up to replace the whole of them. And so it happened. After the Moriscos left, a lot of fields were left barren, and the agricultural production plummeted, specially in Valencia.

Thus the effects of the expulsion of the Moriscos were catastrophic not because it meant a "brain drainage" or a loss of skilled engineers or enterpreneurs. This is 600 years after the Caliphate. Those things a city Morisco knew, a city Old Christian knew as well, and vice versa. It was because it meant a catastrophic loss of peasants and in turn of crops. Food production could not meet demand in the following decades and caused famine, which in consequence hardened the impact of plagues that hit Spain by the middle of the century. The loss of population in Castile, which was already contibuted by the wars in Flanders and the emigration to America, made it harder to maintain the whole Empire over her shoulders, which lead to Olivares' attempts to share the burden with other kingdoms, and caused in turn the rebellions in Naples, Catalonia and Portugal.

So yeah, kudos Lerma. Great job here. :rolleyes:

You make some interesting points. I was pretty aware of the Moriscos agricultural use as serfs for the nobility. They tended to be pretty cheap and so of course the landlords preferred them to the "Old Christians." Didn't the Old Christians also have an agricultural guild of sorts that would also add to the mess (ie, someone to fight for their right to pair pay)? The Germanies in Valencia and Hermandads in Castile come to mind, but I don't think that is it.

This is why I wonder if a similar expulsion can even be avoided, given the sort of competition they offered in the job market. They were very important to the agricultural economy though, especially in Valencia as you mentioned. Once they were expelled it ruined the economy and as you said: left a lot of fallow land. They aren't going to have any protector of sorts, but I figured the crown would just leave them be... but the the Old Christians especially are gonna be prejudiced against them.

I haven't really covered North Africa much in my TL, but thanks for the information vis a vis there. I know the Turks rule there was very gradual, and it was very far from direct. Didn't the Beyliks in Algiers and Tripoli simply pay lip service to Constantinople? The Ottomans do get involved in a messier affair with Persia around the *1530s, so we might be able to butterfly the victory of Spanish factions on the coast. It'd certainly be a lot more interesting story wise.
 
Last edited:
I'll have more later because Niko and Tocomocho =make very good points, but I'd just note that despite the title, I was thinking more about the Marranos and the general expulsion of the Jews as opposed to the Muslims. I'd like to think that's because subconsciously I knew that there weren't a lot of Muslim entrepreneurs or intellectuals that chose to remain in Spain, even before the Granada War (when the Granada population was about 3 million IIRC), but perhaps I just forgot.

One other reason the Moriscos were handy for agriculture was that they could teach the Christians how to keep up the irrigation systems set up by the Muslims--and they still did it better than the Christians even afterwards. I want to say there are court records from various periods documenting that effect as well.
 
I'll have more later because Niko and Tocomocho =make very good points, but I'd just note that despite the title, I was thinking more about the Marranos and the general expulsion of the Jews as opposed to the Muslims. I'd like to think that's because subconsciously I knew that there weren't a lot of Muslim entrepreneurs or intellectuals that chose to remain in Spain, even before the Granada War (when the Granada population was about 3 million IIRC), but perhaps I just forgot.

One other reason the Moriscos were handy for agriculture was that they could teach the Christians how to keep up the irrigation systems set up by the Muslims--and they still did it better than the Christians even afterwards. I want to say there are court records from various periods documenting that effect as well.

I look forward to reading what else you have to say. Niko especially has made a lot of good points regarding the Moriscos and their position in the agricultural economy. Tomo, as well, especially regarding the differences between the heart of Castile (were the Moriscos were few and far between) and Valencia and the other regions were the Moriscos formed a very important group as agricultural labors on the noble estates.

I still think they could play a role in manufactures, as Niko mentioned that they also handled artisan works and the traffic of goods. Thus it doesn't seem too absurd to see cottage industry amongst them, putting-out, sweating, ect. These forms of proto-industrialization would fit perfectly into the situation were the Morsicos formed a substantial part of the rural communities.
 
Top