alternatehistory.com

(Or: Mahmud II has a better sense of who to blame for what)

POD: There were no records of the quiet conversation between Patriarch Gregory V and a cloaked figure outside the St. Peter gate of the Patriarchal compound in Constantinople shortly before Easter 1821. Many believe threats were made, but surviving journals noted several of the arrests that followed had less to do with loyalty to the Filiki Eteria than political disagreements with the Patriarchate on one level or another.

In any case, in early May of that year Patriarch Gregory put forth a formal bull excommunicating the rebels in the Peloponnese as heretics following the doctrines of atheists. Furthermore, he announced that his personal representatives would accompany Ottoman forces sent forth to restore temporal order and be authorized to receive repentance. If the town or stronghold surrendered and affirmed loyalty to Earthly and Religious authorities, then a polite garrison is established and advisers selected from the populace for the new administration of the Eyalet. Otherwise? Punishment in this world and the next commences.

Result 1 (Success): Many of the leaders either fled into the hills or took ship elsewhere. As for those places taken by force? The survivors where shipped to distant parts of the Ottoman Empire. But for the most part the Christian populace on the mainland had stood down by the end of 1822, recognizing the the feudal maladministration was being replaced by something they had the ear of. The centrally appointed administrators, for their part, knew how many of those who surrendered had arms discreetly buried somewhere and were more than inclined to listen and placate where they could not heed lest they be held accountable for another revolt.

The parts of the Aegean that revolted? Given how weak the Ottoman navy was at that point and how much of what strength there was relied on Greeks, they gained even more concessions. Muslim life and property were to be respected, and the Ottoman Admiralty appointed Sanjak-beys to those islands, but the councils ran things and everyone knew it.

Result 1a (Loss, but not to the Revolution): The forces of Muhammed Ali, effectively independent Wali of Egypt, still had to be called in... and the price he demanded was the Morea itself. The temporal authorities were subordinated to Cairo, the Christian hierarchy reassigned to the (Orthodox) Patriarchate of Alexandria, and over time both parties started grumbling about distant 'African' rule.

Result 2 (Failure, in a sense): There were enough in the Morea and elsewhere willing to denounce a living 'Puppet Patriarch', where in OTL they hailed a dead one as a martyr of the Orthodox Greeks, to carry the day. Places that surrendered were attacked and overrun, places that resisted gained enough reinforcements to survive, and so forth. Still the fractious forces fell on each other almost as fast as they did the Muslims and Jews; with a split between factions best described as pro-Russian (inviting clergy beholden to the Russian 'Most Holy Synod'), pro-British (far more atheist than polite circles there were comfortable with), pro Austrian (Uniates to a man), and jumped-up bandits making few pretensions otherwise. Those nobles who arrived from the West seeking a crown rapidly left; while the Ottomans who pulled north of the Gulf and Isthmus of Corinth watched, laughed, and openly received a steady stream of Christian refugees fleeing the chaos.
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