WI no early 1800s French invasion of Egypt?

[raharris1973]

I'm baaack.


Napoleon's attack on Egypt was a really off the wall idea. If he and the French required an adventurous campaaign there were other opportunities available much closer to home.

What's the most likely course of events if Napoleon decides to do something else. This WI has two sides - how is this massive divergence going to affect the development of the Ottoman Empire?

How will Napoleon's alternative COAs in Europe or the Atlantic/Caribbean affect those regions.

 

[raharris1973]

Effects on Egypt and Levant

The French attack overturned a long-standing pro-Ottoman Fench policy for the dubious prospect of being able to eventually threaten India.

Now this wasn't quite the first post-Crusades European incursion into the Egypt & Kevant region. That was by the Russians in the late 1700s, who briefly sent troops to occupy Beirut and who supported a rebellious Egyptian governor, while they were in the midst of a war against the Turks.

 

[Hapsburg]

probably will have enough troops to attack Russia with, and could at least subdie the Russians. Or, alternatively, he could not attack Russia and invade the Ottoman Empire. If that happens, the Turks are royally f***ed, because nappy's troops are used to fighting in the temperate/lush climate that the eastern medditerranean has, unlike the russian cold.

 

[raharris1973]

Levant not Kevant darn it.

darned spastic fingers.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

probably will have enough troops to attack Russia with, and could at least subdie the Russians. Or, alternatively, he could not attack Russia and invade the Ottoman Empire. If that happens, the Turks are royally f***ed, because nappy's troops are used to fighting in the temperate/lush climate that the eastern medditerranean has, unlike the russian cold.

Why do you say silly things like this? Napoleon failed to subdue the extremely degenerate Mamelukes, which Mehmed Ali conquered a few years later with a few thousand Ottoman troops. Napoleon would have been totally screwed if he'd gone after the Ottomans. The Empire is almost entirely mountainous, BTW.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Napoleon's invasion of Egypt may very well have saved the Ottoman Empire.

The Ottomans around the turn of the 19th c were at the weakest they ever were; while there were reformists, there were also large numbers of conservatives. The French invasion convinced even conservatives that reform was necessary, and eventually a strong Sultan, Mahmud II, was able to crush conservative resistance and launch a vigorous reform program.

Without the French invasion, it is possible that the empire would have dissolved into petty statelets only nominally Ottoman and been gradually nibbled away by the West. On the other hand, some other invasion might have had the same galvanizing effect.

 

[Hapsburg]

Why do you say silly things like this? Napoleon failed to subdue the extremely degenerate Mamelukes, which Mehmed Ali conquered a few years later with a few thousand Ottoman troops. Napoleon would have been totally screwed if he'd gone after the Ottomans. The Empire is almost entirely mountainous, BTW.

Pont taken, but i was referring to the Ottoman territory in the Balkans and in the northern part of greece. no way nappy's troops would have enough manpower or will to go beyond that. especially with mountians blocking the way, and many turkish partisans hiding in those mountains, which would use guerrilla tactics. Nappy would probably be defeated eventuallly, even if the Ottoman Empire breaks up into may "ottomanlettes"
although, i could see Napoleon's navy helping turn the Ottoman Empire into the "Ottoman Omellette" if they don't lose Trafalgar. Of course, that would be nearly impossible...

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Pont taken, but i was referring to the Ottoman territory in the Balkans and in the northern part of greece. no way nappy's troops would have enough manpower or will to go beyond that. especially with mountians blocking the way, and many turkish partisans hiding in those mountains, which would use guerrilla tactics. Nappy would probably be defeated eventuallly, even if the Ottoman Empire breaks up into may "ottomanlettes"
although, i could see Napoleon's navy helping turn the Ottoman Empire into the "Ottoman Omellette" if they don't lose Trafalgar. Of course, that would be nearly impossible...

Hmm. Well, he's in the same danger of being cut off from supply by the British, as you indirectly point out. I think the critical problem is the manpower - he doesn't have any way to replace losses - and Balkan winters are pretty deadly to an unprepared army.

 

[Hapsburg]

aye. If, mayhaps, he just stops in 1812, and makes peace with the other nations, mayhaps the world would be better. The Ottomans would have little counter-balance, what with the weakened Austria and the decentralized Germany. They could get strong enough to take some Russian land, mayhaps in a war in the 1820s or 30s.
Or mayhaps the world implodes. i dunno...
but the balkan winters and the moutainous region in Greece would seriously fuck Nappy's ary over. They'd lose as many, if not more, than they lost in the OTL Russian Campaign.

At least OTL Napoleon can claim one great achievement in Russia: he reached moscow, something hitler's mighty Wehrmacht could not do, albeit by 50 miles.

 

[Jason Sleeman]

Rosetta Stone

The Rosetta Stone was discovered by the French Army at that time. what are the possible ramifications of it not being discovered ?

 

[david3565]

In addition to the Rosetta Stone, Napoleon's team of scholars brought back an extensive survey of Egypt that filled something like fourteen volumes and it is still the foundation of Egyptology. With all that information and the Stone, Egyptology doesn't become an area of study. One can only speculate on the ripple effect of that.

 

[Grey Wolf]

While probably not directly relevant, Napoleon DID historically raise troops from Dalmatia, the Ionian Islands and other parts of the Adriatic coast. This is at least one source of troops if he were to campaign inland. An additional source would be other non-Muslim populations he comes across - Vlachs etc. And then Greeks and Venetian-descended populations who have been under Ottoman domination for some time but retain traditions and roots he could build on.

Grey Wolf

 

[Hapsburg]

In addition to the Rosetta Stone, Napoleon's team of scholars brought back an extensive survey of Egypt that filled something like fourteen volumes and it is still the foundation of Egyptology. With all that information and the Stone, Egyptology doesn't become an area of study. One can only speculate on the ripple effect of that.

no "the mummy" and "the mummy returns" starring Brendan Fraser?
OH SH*T! WHAT HAVE WE DONE!!!???

 

[raharris1973]

Interesting idea

"Napoleon's invasion of Egypt may very well have saved the Ottoman Empire.

The Ottomans around the turn of the 19th c were at the weakest they ever were; while there were reformists, there were also large numbers of conservatives. The French invasion convinced even conservatives that reform was necessary, and eventually a strong Sultan, Mahmud II, was able to crush conservative resistance and launch a vigorous reform program.

Without the French invasion, it is possible that the empire would have dissolved into petty statelets only nominally Ottoman and been gradually nibbled away by the West. On the other hand, some other invasion might have had the same galvanizing effect."

When was Mahmud's reign?

John, so, for instance, without the galvanizing effect the empire might be much more vulnerable to the nearest powers, like the Austrians and especially the Russians?

I wonder why the joint Austro-Russian campaigns in the last quarter of the 1700s didn't have that galvanizing effect, especially the Russian expeditions to Greece, Lebanon and Palestine.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

"Napoleon's invasion of Egypt may very well have saved the Ottoman Empire.

The Ottomans around the turn of the 19th c were at the weakest they ever were; while there were reformists, there were also large numbers of conservatives. The French invasion convinced even conservatives that reform was necessary, and eventually a strong Sultan, Mahmud II, was able to crush conservative resistance and launch a vigorous reform program.

Without the French invasion, it is possible that the empire would have dissolved into petty statelets only nominally Ottoman and been gradually nibbled away by the West. On the other hand, some other invasion might have had the same galvanizing effect."

When was Mahmud's reign?

John, so, for instance, without the galvanizing effect the empire might be much more vulnerable to the nearest powers, like the Austrians and especially the Russians?

I wonder why the joint Austro-Russian campaigns in the last quarter of the 1700s didn't have that galvanizing effect, especially the Russian expeditions to Greece, Lebanon and Palestine.

Mahmud's reign began in 1808, but it took him until 1826 to accumulate enough power to liberate himself from the conservatives that dominated the empire to begin his reform program.

The wars with Russia and Austria were different; the Ottomans had more or less been at war with them for centuries, they were neighboring powers, and the Ottomans were still able to compete with them militarily, at least to the point of being able to hold out somewhat in the core lands - for instance, in the last Q of the 18th c, the Ottomans actually beat the Austrians and recovered Belgrade and surrounding territories lost earlier.

But the scale of warfare made possible by the French Revolution was seeveral notches above what the Ottomans were capable of, so the Napoleonic Wars left them far behind Europe, both in military terms and government, and a big French army showing up in Egypt out of nowhere and kicking butt was a profound shock.

Mahmud didn't get his hands on the reigns in time to save Greece & Serbia, nor prevent Mehmed Ali's rise. A couple years more might have made the empire irretrievable.

? Which expeditions to Palestine, Lebanon & Greece?

 

[raharris1973]

I'll get back to you with sources, but...

that was my reaction at first, too. Russians in Beirut, wtf?

But I think during one of Catherine the Great's Wars with Turkey, she sent a fleet through the Baltic and into the Med to start a second harassing front while the main action was going on in the Black sea.

Russian marines landed in the Pelopenese, and the Greeks massacred the local Turks, to the shock of the Russian admiral according to his diary. Russian marines also landed in Beirut and Jaffa if I recall correctly, and Catherine gave some support to a rebellious pasha in Egypt.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

that was my reaction at first, too. Russians in Beirut, wtf?

But I think during one of Catherine the Great's Wars with Turkey, she sent a fleet through the Baltic and into the Med to start a second harassing front while the main action was going on in the Black sea.

Russian marines landed in the Pelopenese, and the Greeks massacred the local Turks, to the shock of the Russian admiral according to his diary. Russian marines also landed in Beirut and Jaffa if I recall correctly, and Catherine gave some support to a rebellious pasha in Egypt.

Oh. That's not really an invasion, though, just raiding. Napoleon actually conquered Egypt and intended to keep it.

 

[raharris1973]

Good point-

though a similar amount of raiding was what galvanized Japan. And I think that Russian stuff was the first Christian raid in four hundred or so years.