WI: No Donna Rice Scandal?

The Donna Rice scandal was one of the first sex scandal that captured media att nation and cost Gary Hary the Democratic Nomination in 1988. What if for whatever reason, Hart never met Donna Rice. What kind of shot does Hart have at the nomination and can he win in the general election in 1988?. In the Presidency he would be much like Bill Clinton, taking a New Democrat approach, but if a New Democrat administration were to be four years earlier, how would that affect the U.S. and beyond?
 
Hart was the clear frontrunner for 1988 but dropped out when the scandal broke in May. Frontrunners often wind up losing, but I think Hart would have had a good chance against a field that included Dukakis, Gephardt, Jackson, Biden and Simon. There had been stories about Hart for years with nothing pinned on him until the business with Rice. Biden would have had to drop out due to health problems in any case. Jackson and Simon were not viable general election candidates. That leaves Gephardt and Dukakis. Gephardt might well have won Iowa, which would set up a do-or-die battle between Hart and Dukakis in New Hampshire. Hart won NH in 1984; Dukakis was the governor of neighboring Massachusetts. If I had been running Hart's campaign, I'd have gone after Gephardt in Iowa hoping for a win there and a knockout of Gephardt. If Hart could win Iowa and NH, the race would have probably been over then, with Jackson staying in and winning some southern states. It would have been about delegates at that point and Hart would have prevailed over time. If Hart managed to beat Gephardt in Iowa but lost NH, you have a two way race going into Super Tuesday to determine the nominee between Hart and Dukakis with Jackson siphoning off liberal and black votes. That race could be a real brawl between Hart and Dukakis, though I think Hart prevails in the end as Hart is simply a more attractive candidate against the somewhat dull Dukakis. Another scenario is one where Gephardt wins Iowa and Hart wins New Hampshire. Gephardt would have had a chance there with his union support and his possible appeal in the South. This would also have been an interesting contest, with Jackson again in there siphoning off votes and delegates.
 
As Reagan's VP, Bush was running as the incumbent party. And during a period of peace and prosperity.

All the same, Bush was a below-average campaigner (and a great example of a person who takes governing seriously, but who doesn't really appreciate the potential educative and uplifting aspects of campaigning). And Hart was an above-average campaigner.
 
Thesis: 1988 almost as big a booby prize as 1976.

There's the Iraq War which is hard to avoid. And real questions about the end game which will be present, whether you occupy or whether you do not occupy.

And there was the 1991 recession, which I think affected a lot of middle managers and upper middle-income persons, that is, a lot of swing voters.
 
In April 1987--*before* the Donna Rice story broke--a poll showed Dukakis leading Hart in NH 41-38. http://www.thecrimson.com/article/1987/4/7/nh-poll-shows-duke-in-lead/ Now you may say that this is just because Dukakis was from a neighboring state and was therefore well-known in NH. But Hart after all was well-known in NH, too--he had won the primary there four years earlier!

I have argued elsewhere that peace and prosperity (and the recovery of Reagan's popularity from its lows of 1987) were likely to make 1988 a Republican year, regardless of who the Democrats nominated and that Dukakis' big lead after the convention was an illusory "bounce." https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/can-bill-clinton-win-in-1988.353222/#post-10749600 But even if you disagree with me about that, you should realize that Hart was by no means a lock to get the Democratic nomination in 1988--even without the Monkey Business.
 
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