Hart was the clear frontrunner for 1988 but dropped out when the scandal broke in May. Frontrunners often wind up losing, but I think Hart would have had a good chance against a field that included Dukakis, Gephardt, Jackson, Biden and Simon. There had been stories about Hart for years with nothing pinned on him until the business with Rice. Biden would have had to drop out due to health problems in any case. Jackson and Simon were not viable general election candidates. That leaves Gephardt and Dukakis. Gephardt might well have won Iowa, which would set up a do-or-die battle between Hart and Dukakis in New Hampshire. Hart won NH in 1984; Dukakis was the governor of neighboring Massachusetts. If I had been running Hart's campaign, I'd have gone after Gephardt in Iowa hoping for a win there and a knockout of Gephardt. If Hart could win Iowa and NH, the race would have probably been over then, with Jackson staying in and winning some southern states. It would have been about delegates at that point and Hart would have prevailed over time. If Hart managed to beat Gephardt in Iowa but lost NH, you have a two way race going into Super Tuesday to determine the nominee between Hart and Dukakis with Jackson siphoning off liberal and black votes. That race could be a real brawl between Hart and Dukakis, though I think Hart prevails in the end as Hart is simply a more attractive candidate against the somewhat dull Dukakis. Another scenario is one where Gephardt wins Iowa and Hart wins New Hampshire. Gephardt would have had a chance there with his union support and his possible appeal in the South. This would also have been an interesting contest, with Jackson again in there siphoning off votes and delegates.