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As I understand it the Crusades began with a request from the Byzantine Emperor Alexius Komnenos to the Pope for reinforcements to help him retake Anatolia from the Sultanate of Rum. Pope Urban II saw this as an opportunity to begin mending the great schism and enthusiastically supported the idea. Then things started to get out of hand. The Peasants Crusade cut a swath of destruction across Europe en route to the Holy Land, especially against Jews who were butchered by the thousands, and then once they reached Anatolia proceeded to raise all sorts of mayhem before being slaughtered by the Turks. The Princes Crusade fared better militarily, managing to secure large sections of the Levant, but ultimately reneged on their oath to Komnenos and established several Catholic Crusader states in former Byzantine territory.

The effect that this and subsequent Crusades would have on World history is immense. The mass fanaticism it kicked up in Europe had significant long-term consequences, in particular the violence against European Jewry which is regarded by some as a major turning point in European anti-Semitism. The establishment of the Crusader States would also have a significant impact on the geopolitics of the Levant for the next few centuries. The Fourth Crusade is widely regarded as being the beginning of the end for the Byzantine Empire after the sack of Constantinople (or at least greatly hastening its fall). Economically, it reopened the Mediterranean to trade and travel which played a significant role in the rise of Venice and Genoa as economic powers. The vast majority of monastic military orders were established in the wake and because of the Crusades (according to Wikipedia only one holy order pre-dated the Crusades) Most importantly it established a precedent for large scale aggressive holy war, sanctioned by the Pope and drawing support from across Christendom. This would lead to multiple future Crusades in the holy land, as well as other crusades in Europe, such as the Reconquista in Spain against Muslims, the Northern Crusades against Pagans, the Albigensian and Hussite Crusades against heretics in Southern France and Bohemia respectively, and the Stedingen Crusade against political upheaval and anti-Clericalism, to name but a few. In short the legacy of the First Crusade was kind of a big deal.

Now what would happen if the First Crusade had been prevented, or had gone more according the the Byzantine's original plan. Say for example if the negotiations surrounding the terms of the Crusade had broken down and the Pope decided to call it off? What if there was a less ambitious Pope who was more willing to support the Byzantine vision, and instead of offering a remission of sin for everyone involved in the Crusades, it's limited to a request to the major Catholic Monarchs to send a few thousand knights to back the Byzantines up? At the very least that might end up butterflying away the Peasants Crusade and all the associated fun that came with it. Furthermore, what if the First Crusade had been a resounding failure, and how would that affect future potential crusades?

What would the impact of all this be on European history? Would the Papacy take a less aggressive stance on holy wars, perhaps sticking to a more rigid just war theory? Would the Church play as active a role in suppressing heresy, or would it be considered the responsibility of the local Christian nobles first and foremost? If so how would this affect the various heresies that arose and would they have a better chance of surviving? Might this lead to an earlier reformation? Would this butterfly away the establishment of military orders, or at least the majority of them? Finally how would this affect the strength of the Catholic Church, given that they and their military orders were often one of the major beneficiaries of a success crusade?
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