WI: No Dien Bien Phu?

Hi y'all,

The Dien Bien Phu battle was the last straw in the war for Indochinese independance. It was meant to draw the fighting away from the rich Delta regions and bleed out the independantist army. Ultimate goal was to strengthen the French negociation position apparently.

French army established a big camp deep inside the Tonkin which was supposed to get air support and attract ennemies. But the General Gap pulled a Hannibal and had his artillery carried through the jungle to encircle the French camp, carpet bombing them from the hills above and preventing any air support from actually landing.
Needless to say, it was a disaster for France. Independance of Indochine was a big hit for French ego and sped up Algerian independance movements who saw that independance was possible.

Dien Bien Phu was a military miracle, truly a Hannibal. So, what if it didn't work or didn't happen? What if Dien Bien Phu had worked and had bled out independantist armies?

Would Indochine be French? Would it be part of a federacy or become a protectorate? What would be the impact on other French colonies and history?

Remember the war of independance led very quickly to the Vietnam war after
 
If the Battle for Dien Bien Phu had gone as the French had hoped then the Viet Minh would have suffered a serious defeat. It would probably have meant that the government in France would not have fallen and Charles De Gaul might not have come to power. At the time of the engagement the Vietnamese were becoming a larger and larger part of the French forces fighting the war,
It is highly likely that the French would have granted the region Federation status perhaps even independence.
It should be noted that President Eisenhower seriously considered allowing the US Air Force to carry out a serious bombing campaign on the hills surrounding the French Camp. Strikes by B-29s would have really altered things.
 

Caspian

Banned
It would probably have meant that the government in France would not have fallen and Charles De Gaul might not have come to power.

That didn't happen until several years afterwards - Dien Bien Phu was not at all a direct cause of the end of the Fourth Republic.
 
No but it set the course that lead to the fall of the Fourth Republic and the return of Charles De Gaul.
 
Even without the benefit of hindsight Dien was the dumbest place to site a fortified camp. Every commander since the days of sticks and rocks knows you dont try to hold low ground when your enemy has the high ground. Putting 15,000 men 4 light tanks and 10 artillery pieces into a swampy valley 120 miles from safety when you havent even cleared the surrounding high ground was the work of an idiot.

General Giap wasnt an idiot and it was only a matter of time before the Viet Minh won.
 
Even without the benefit of hindsight Dien was the dumbest place to site a fortified camp. Every commander since the days of sticks and rocks knows you dont try to hold low ground when your enemy has the high ground. Putting 15,000 men 4 light tanks and 10 artillery pieces into a swampy valley 120 miles from safety when you havent even cleared the surrounding high ground was the work of an idiot.

General Giap wasnt an idiot and it was only a matter of time before the Viet Minh won.

Thumb up :D.
 
Hi y'all,

The Dien Bien Phu battle was the last straw in the war for Indochinese independance. It was meant to draw the fighting away from the rich Delta regions and bleed out the independantist army. Ultimate goal was to strengthen the French negociation position apparently.

French army established a big camp deep inside the Tonkin which was supposed to get air support and attract ennemies. But the General Gap pulled a Hannibal and had his artillery carried through the jungle to encircle the French camp, carpet bombing them from the hills above and preventing any air support from actually landing.
Needless to say, it was a disaster for France. Independance of Indochine was a big hit for French ego and sped up Algerian independance movements who saw that independance was possible.

Dien Bien Phu was a military miracle, truly a Hannibal. So, what if it didn't work or didn't happen? What if Dien Bien Phu had worked and had bled out independantist armies?

Would Indochine be French? Would it be part of a federacy or become a protectorate? What would be the impact on other French colonies and history?

Remember the war of independance led very quickly to the Vietnam war after

By that stage of the war both sides recognised that a negotiated outcome leading to a two state solution was almost inevitable. General Navarre was under a tremendous amount of political pressure for a victory to assist with the negotiations on foot.

Furthermore the premise of Operation Castor was based on the successful defence of Na San, which apparently vindicated the theory of supplying a base purely by air power. In doing so they ignored the key criteria that enabled Na San to be successful that were not present at Dien Bien Phu.

Look my 0.02 cents is that we would still see a Communist North Vietnam, but it may very well be confined to Tonkin.
 
Even without the benefit of hindsight Dien was the dumbest place to site a fortified camp. Every commander since the days of sticks and rocks knows you dont try to hold low ground when your enemy has the high ground. Putting 15,000 men 4 light tanks and 10 artillery pieces into a swampy valley 120 miles from safety when you havent even cleared the surrounding high ground was the work of an idiot.

General Giap wasnt an idiot and it was only a matter of time before the Viet Minh won.

The French upon landing secured the heights around the valley, the problem lay in the fact that the Viet Minh over ran them and in doing so was able to fire directly upon the airfield. As soon as they lost Beatrice, which was the first hill lost, and their counter attack to regain Beatrice failed their fate was sealed.
 
General Giap wasnt an idiot and it was only a matter of time before the Viet Minh won.

But he was. Squandered mens lives for little gain. He got lucky in 1954 that General Christian de Castries was a bigger idiot.

Giaps thoughts? "Every minute, hundreds of thousands of people die all over the world. The life or death of a hundred, a thousand, or tens of thousands of human beings, even if they are our own compatriots, represents really very little."

He finally was kicked upstairs after 1972
 
The French upon landing secured the heights around the valley, the problem lay in the fact that the Viet Minh over ran them and in doing so was able to fire directly upon the airfield. As soon as they lost Beatrice, which was the first hill lost, and their counter attack to regain Beatrice failed their fate was sealed.

Other problem I saw was that the batteries didn't support each other as they were too far away.
I found a great in depth analysis of the battle (FR): http://www.diploweb.com/Dien-Bien-Phu-faute-strategique-ou.html

So, if I understand everyone's opinion, if Dien Bien Phu had gone any better (more men, no more forest around, retreat after the first three days...) it could have led to a French south Indochine?
What if the Geneva convention hadn't been called by the French at that time but the battle was still a defeat?
 
The French upon landing secured the heights around the valley, the problem lay in the fact that the Viet Minh over ran them and in doing so was able to fire directly upon the airfield. As soon as they lost Beatrice, which was the first hill lost, and their counter attack to regain Beatrice failed their fate was sealed.

Not mountains where VM set their artillery.

Plus they thought that:
-VM has little in ways of heavy artillery
-VM will not be able to use what they have
-VM will place them behind ridges to prevent counter fire.

All of those proven to be false, first two thanks to Chinese second to good grasp of camouflage and manpower
 
But he was. Squandered mens lives for little gain. He got lucky in 1954 that General Christian de Castries was a bigger idiot.

Giaps thoughts? "Every minute, hundreds of thousands of people die all over the world. The life or death of a hundred, a thousand, or tens of thousands of human beings, even if they are our own compatriots, represents really very little."

He finally was kicked upstairs after 1972

Its funny but Giap kept getting lucky when fighting the French he beat them time and time again. VietMinh casualties are not known for certain as Vietnamese records understandably were not exact, French estimates (and they are estimates no French were left around to count the bodies) are possibly exagerated by a factor of 2.
 
Its funny but Giap kept getting lucky when fighting the French he beat them time and time again. VietMinh casualties are not known for certain as Vietnamese records understandably were not exact, French estimates (and they are estimates no French were left around to count the bodies) are possibly exagerated by a factor of 2.

I think they are recognised to be heavy with his best infantry regiments taking a serious beating. VM didn't quite shot its bolt but I think VM would be hard pressed to conduct large scale operations after DBP, had french been willing to fight it out.
 
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