WI: No Deluge?

The Deluge was one of the main back-breakers of Poland-Lithuania, arguably causing more damage to Poland proper than World War II. With it, went much of Poland's wealth, and although the PLC would last until the Partition, the Deluge really shattered the entire country.

So my question is; what if there was no Deluge? Let's assume that the Commonwealth manages to somehow avoid going to war with Russia or Sweden during the time period.

How would a great-power PLC affect Europe?
 
You need a Swedish king that has ambitions elsewhere, first off, in order to avoid anything similar to OTL's 'Deluge'. Or, a neutered Sweden entirely.

Obviously a stronger and more relevant PLC. The strong philosophical and scientific tradition, along with a potential reform of the army makes it a solid regional and possible player on the world stage (with a stronger national colonization effort a la OTL Couronian Colonization). More than likely will fall prey to stronger neighbors at some point, but it'll take longer without the Deluge.
 
You need a Swedish king that has ambitions elsewhere, first off, in order to avoid anything similar to OTL's 'Deluge'. Or, a neutered Sweden entirely.

For example Christina of Sweden stays on the throne for few more years and PLC by this time manages to repell Russian armies and make some kind of Hadiach treaty with Cossacks.

Obviously a stronger and more relevant PLC. The strong philosophical and scientific tradition, along with a potential reform of the army makes it a solid regional and possible player on the world stage (with a stronger national colonization effort a la OTL Couronian Colonization).

The army was good enough. The problems were finances and treasury. The colonisation was part of the problem because waves after waves of colonists from Poland came to Ukraine, became ukrainified and later took part in Cossack uprisings.

More than likely will fall prey to stronger neighbors at some point

Or not. At that time nobody would predict that Austria would become so strong and Prussia would form another kingdom which also grow to power.
 
You need a Swedish king that has ambitions elsewhere, first off, in order to avoid anything similar to OTL's 'Deluge'. Or, a neutered Sweden entirely.

Obviously a stronger and more relevant PLC. The strong philosophical and scientific tradition, along with a potential reform of the army makes it a solid regional and possible player on the world stage (with a stronger national colonization effort a la OTL Couronian Colonization). More than likely will fall prey to stronger neighbors at some point, but it'll take longer without the Deluge.

Come on... Beating Sweden was completely possible. Battle for Warsaw (1656) was touch and go for Sweden-Brandenburg alliance. And their forces were in no position to withdraw in case of defeat (lack of provisions and they were positioned so they had swamps behind their backs). If Poland wins Battle for Warsaw, than Poland wins whole war. Poof! No Deluge.
 
Two challenges still face Poland. First, it needs to form a strong central government that won't collapse because of the liberum veto, but which also satisfies a degree of autonomy to the eastern Slavs in its lands. The challenges facing Poland in the 18th and 19th centuries require constitutional changes. Second, Poland is in a bad place geographically being atop of the Central European Plain with few natural defenses. It has ambitious and powerful neighbors - Sweden, Prussia, Austria, and Russia - with no natural allies that can help. France and the Ottomans are potentially useful against Austria, but Poland is really on its own against Russia. Perhaps a less ambitious Sweden who works with it to contain Russia.

Despite its power, Poland will remain vulnerable absent favorable diplomatic conditions.
 

phatmaus

Banned
Come on... Beating Sweden was completely possible. Battle for Warsaw (1656) was touch and go for Sweden-Brandenburg alliance. And their forces were in no position to withdraw in case of defeat (lack of provisions and they were positioned so they had swamps behind their backs). If Poland wins Battle for Warsaw, than Poland wins whole war. Poof! No Deluge.

The PLC was structurally fucked in that a foreign power had had to buy just one nobleman on parliament to gridlock the entire system(every MP had veto power), that even if they got lucky once, someone else would be along soon.

Considering that the nobility considered this their god given right worth fighting and dying for, the chances of reform were slim.
 
The PLC was structurally fucked in that a foreign power had had to buy just one nobleman on parliament to gridlock the entire system(every MP had veto power), that even if they got lucky once, someone else would be along soon.

Considering that the nobility considered this their god given right worth fighting and dying for, the chances of reform were slim.

First veto use (as we know it- one deadlocking Sejm) was used during king Jan Casimir reign, as a result of Deluge... by king himself! Originally veto allowed noble to show his displease with certain laws- which were discussed until no objections were raised. It didn't break parliament! Precendent was set a noble decided to veto a law and fled a scene- because there was no one to discuss matter with- parliament was deadlocked and thus- all reforms abolished. As a result majority of Polish nobles decided that it's crucial to regulate matter, so this situation never repeats. Set of rules were supposed to be imposed upon parliament, but sadly it never happened for some reason.

Anyway- PLC was NOT "structurally fucked". Buying vetos became common practice as late as during Saxon dynasty reign- more than half century later, when decomposition of legislative body (and whole state) was in a very advanced stage.
 
@ Blackfox5: Austria OTOH could be helpful against the Ottomans and possibly Prussia.
Austria and the PLC do not have to be on bad terms. Austria will have to complete the reconquest of Hungary on the Ottomans, before the interests of the PLC and Austria may come at odds.
Poland had agreed to transfer the suzerainity over Silesia to Bohemia, in exchange for the king of Bohemia dropping his claim to Polish throne in 1335 (as a compromise).

In fact Austria would have benefited from a friendly PLC to keep Prussia-Brandenburg in check.
 
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Another thing is that Prussia would still have been vassal of the PLC; king John Casimir released Prussia from vassalage in exchange for Prussia switching sides and joining PLC against Sweden (treaty of Bromberg 1657). If Prussia still is Polish vassal, it might delay or even stop its rise.

Originally posted by Blackfox5
Second, Poland is in a bad place geographically being atop of the Central European Plain with few natural defenses. It has ambitious and powerful neighbors - Sweden, Prussia, Austria, and Russia - with no natural allies that can help.
Austria (HRE at the time), in fact, helped PLC during the Deluge; there was no particular conflicts between HRE and PLC and a potential common enemy - the Ottomans, as later in 1683 IOTL.
As far as Prussia goes - see above.

If there are no wars with Russia and Sweden, PLC can concentrate on the Cossack question, ever present danger from Tatar raids and, of course, the Ottoman Empire. Such PLC would be significantly wealthier and stronger; therefore, there would probably be no treaty of Hadiach (negotiated when PLC was weakend by wars), and PLC would try to bring Ukraine back by force - possibly with some success, although it is possible that in face of much stronger PLC Cossacks would agree to some less generous terms without too much of bloodshed.
Stronger PLC with the Cossacks in her ranks would also be a much more difficult adversary to the Ottoman Empire.
However, internal weakness of PLC political system would remain the same. It wasn't changed IOTL after desolation of the Deluge; stronger ands more successful PLC would have no reason tp change the system that works.
 
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