PoD is no 2010 UK election debates, as they get snuffed out in organizational issues as all debates prior to 2010 were. Butterflies also result in Labour running a stronger campaign, such as no bigotgate.
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The situation looked hopeless for the UK Labour Party heading into the 2010 general election. After nearly 5 years behind in the polls, and just over 2 of those getting clobbered under Gordon Brown, and 13 years of Labour government, it looked like Britain would turf Labour out and put the Tories in. The deep economic recession Britain was in and Gordon Brown's continuing unpopularity seemed to assure a brutal defeat. Indeed, the polls also told that picture, the first poll of 2010, taken by YouGov had the Tories at 42%, Labour 12 points behind on 30% and the Liberal Democrats on 17%.
However, slowly but surely, over the months heading towards the general election on 6 May, the polls began to narrow, and Labour climbed up from their 2009 lows in the mid to low 20s and started polling 30% and higher. Labour was also helped by good growth numbers in Q4 of 2009, with the recession now in the rearview mirror and the long-awaited economic recovery beginning. Labour ran on a platform of steering Britain to the economic recovery and against Tory austerity, instead providing the economy with the investment it needed to grow. The Tories still had the advantage on the economy, and more broadly in the polls, but doubts about the party and their agenda would not go away, and their lead began to fall towards hung parliament territory. YouGov's poll, the first after the calling of the general election, now had the Tories at 37%, Labour at 32% and the Liberal Democrats at 19%.
As the campaign continued, Labour began to look as if it may be able to again form the government. David Cameron's campaign performed weaker than expected, while Labour suffered no major errors in its campaign, but managed to play on doubts about the Tories. Increasingly, voters grew warier of electing the Tories back to power and their fears about the party came back to the forefront. With the economy continuing to grow in Q1 of 2010, Labour was able to avoid being hurt by the economy any more. There were no leader's debates in the 2010 campaign, and speculation from 2009 that such debates would occur was forgotten by almost everyone. The Liberal Democrat vote instead was squeezed by both major parties, though antipathy to both Labour and the Tories kept it around 20%. The final YouGov poll had the parties closer than ever, with the Tories at 37%, Labour at 33% and the Liberal Democrats at 21%. The Tories seemed to have thrown away a sure majority, and a hung parliament was now almost the likely outcome.
"Now, in a moment as Big Ben strikes Ten we'll be able to give you the results of our exit poll. For the first time not an opinion poll, not people saying how they intend to vote, but people answering the question-how did you vote?" David Dimbleby's said as Big Ben counted down to Ten "And that's how this is for them, we went to 130 different polling places to find this out, but remember this is only an exit poll, if it was dead accurate there'd be no need for anyone to go and vote."
Big Ben strikes ten "Ten o'clock"
"And this is what we're saying, it's going to be a hung parliament-with, if this poll is dead right, a perfect tie between the Tories and the Labour Party, both parties short by 36 seats of an overall majority"
290 Labour, 290 Conservative, 43 Liberal Democrat
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Following the election, five frantic days of negotiations took place. The Tories protested that they had gotten the most votes and so had the greater legitimacy, but instead the incumbent Prime Minister and winner of the most seats, Gordon Brown, got the first go. The Liberal Democrats got a referendum on the Alternative Vote and seats at the cabinet table, as well as Brown's resignation set for mid-2011, at which point he was replaced by Alan Johnson as Prime Minister. Labour got a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and a fourth term in government. As for the Tories, they were stuck with 5 more long years in opposition.