WI: No Crash of '29/Great Depression?

The Wall Street Crash of 1929, also known as the Great Crash and the Stock Market Crash of 1929, began in late October 1929 and was the most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States, when taking into consideration the full extent and duration of its fallout. The crash signaled the beginning of the decade-long Great Depression that affected almost every industrialized country, and did not end in the United States until the onset of American mobilization for World War II at the end of 1941.

Many speculate on how these events could have been prevented, or at least curtailed to a lesser effect they had on the world than they did.

So, what if there was no Crash? No Depression? For whatever reason, things simply continue as they do - a recession every now and then, ups and downs, but a relative continuation of the economic stability we had in the 'Roaring Twenties'.

How would this effect the United States, as well as the world at large?
 
The only way I see to prevent the New York Crash is to keep the US out of World War I. Or use ASB magic to keep people from making stupid moves with there money.
 

RousseauX

Donor
The crash itself was probably inevitable, but the response of the federal reserve could have greatly mitigated the circumstances.

There were 3 points after the crash when the federal reserve aggravated the crisis

1) Refusing to bail out banks during the initial bank run
2) Insisting on staying on the gold standard when a monetary expansion might have averted the crisis
3) Raising the interest rate in an efford to, IIRC, preserve the gold standard.

Reversing those decisions and the great depression might not have being so great.
 
If the Crash never occurred, one divergence the world of architecture would be greatly affected and the cityscapes of Europe and North America could look very different. In my home town of Helsinki for example, there were quite a few skyscrapers/high-rises planned in the 20s and early 30s, but because of a severe lack of investors nothing ever came of these projects. If a backwater like Helsinki was affected in this way, think of places like New York City.
 
I'd imagine, frex, the TVA doesn't get built. Nor the Hoover/Boulder Dam. The Brooklyn Bridge would probably be more impressive. The Golden Gate Bridge might have been delayed (less need?). There are literally hundreds of parks & other things that wouldn't exist without the Civilian Conservation Corps & WPA efforts...:eek:

The Dust Bowl will still happen... Did FDR act to mitigate it OTL? Would a Republican? (Who might win, instead? Hoover again? If Hoover, does he arrange building the eponymous dam anyhow?)

Plus, without the Crash, fair chance FDR doesn't become President, so no Social Security.:eek:

Plus, very possibly, no Lend-Lease...:eek:
 
Certainly the parks/forests that we got with WPA and CCC would not have happened; the TVA would almost certainly be a goner, too, I think (at least in its present form). But both the Hoover Dam and Golden Gate bridges were projects started in the 20's and would probably have come about close to OTL time.

The Golden Gate bridge was locally financed, since the big federal project in the Bay Area was the Bay Bridge to Oakland. I suspect that project would have been delayed, given its size/cost-though that's not to say it would have been delayed by much...
 

Perkeo

Banned
There will be a crash and a great Depression - if not in '29 then some other year. The only way of having no economic crisis is having no economy.
 
Kevin C. Smith said:
both the Hoover Dam and Golden Gate bridges were projects started in the 20's and would probably have come about close to OTL time.
Conceived, maybe, but actual construction was begun in 1936 & 1937, respectively. Given local funding, tho, you may be right, the Golden Gate may not have been affected.

The thing that's bugging me is, how do you avoid the Crash? That's going to impact what does or doesn't get done. If it was because the Fed tightened money supply (raising the rediscount rate, blamed as the proximate cause of the Crash OTL) & reduced speculation earlier in the '20s, how did that happen without it causing a Crash earlier?:eek::confused: If it didn't tighten the money supply, why not?:confused:

Which is to say, I agree, the Crash was bound to happen eventually, unless you've changed something fundamental--& that changes everything else.
 

Cook

Banned
So, what if there was no Crash? No Depression? For whatever reason, things simply continue as they do - a recession every now and then, ups and downs, but a relative continuation of the economic stability we had in the 'Roaring Twenties'.
The problem is, the 1920s weren’t economically stable, they really were 'The Roaring Twenties'; a prolonged market boom that started for America in the first years of World War One and just kept right on going. For you to avoid The Great Crash, you’d need to have had one or two smaller market readjustments earlier in the 1920s, just to remind people (particularly bank CEO’s) that market forces haven’t ended and to maintain a degree of caution.
 
Kevin C. Smith said:
Good catch. I stand corrected!
:) Don't mention it.
Cook said:
The problem is, the 1920s weren’t economically stable, they really were 'The Roaring Twenties'; a prolonged market boom that started for America in the first years of World War One and just kept right on going. For you to avoid The Great Crash, you’d need to have had one or two smaller market readjustments earlier in the 1920s, just to remind people (particularly bank CEO’s) that market forces haven’t ended and to maintain a degree of caution.
Agreed. You need the Fed not to wait so long to bump the rediscount rate. IDK the complete history of the boom well enough to say, but even talk of an increase in '25 or '26 would have been a big help--a "smack" to get everyone's attention.:eek: (I don't think the Fed did that, then: now, you hear it from the Fed Chair all the time--& Wall Street listens.:cool:)

Do that, I think you could get a sharp correction or two, without the Crash--but you still have to address the fundamental lunacy: namely, the idea production creates demand.:eek::eek::confused::confused::confused: That's something I don't begin to know how you'd fix.:confused:
 
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