WI No Communist coup in Afghanistan

MrHola

Banned
WI Afghan President Mohammed Daud had been able to prevent (or crush) the 1978 coup that overthrew (and killed) him and installed the People's Democratic (Communist) party in power? (Let's say he's more successful than in OTL in weeding out PDP supporters from key military positions.)

Had there never been a Communist regime in Afghanistan, it is unlikely the Soviets would invade -- all their their postwar invasions (in Hungary and Czechoslovakia as well as Afghanistan) were of countries where the rule of pro-Soviet Communist parties had already been established and now seemed threatened. (Another purpose of these invasions was to assure that the Communist parties in these countries were headed by people sufficiently loyal to Moscow -- hence the murder of Hafizullah Amin.)

(Of course the invasion of Afghanistan did have an aspect that bothered the West more than Czechoslovakia or Hungary had done. It suggested that the USSR would use invasion to keep even the most recently established Communist regimes in power -- and subordinated to the USSR; and hence it meant a potential expansion of the "Brezhnev Doctrine" from a few long-established eastern European Communist regimes to anyhere in the Third World where a coup might being a Communist regime to power, however briefly.)

So let's say that Afghanistan continues under Mohammed Daoud Khan as a Soviet influenced state but at least nominally neutralist in its foreign policy and certainly non-communist in its internal policy (this was pretty much its status before 1978, both before and after Daoud's own 1973 coup) It avoids the "reforms" the PDP announced which so alienated the Muslim clergy.

What would happen?
 
The place is still likely to experience problems, but nothing on the scale of OTL. Question - might se still see a religiously motivated rebellion later on? The regime was not as brutal as later Soviet catspaws, but it was secular and socialist.

After '79, I'm sure Iran will take an interest. Don't know if they'll be able to do anything (certainly not much if they're fighting Iraq at the same time), but the Islamic republic would be a constant inspiration to Shia Islamists. The Sunni, I don't know - could Iran change its message enough to appeal to them? Would Pakistan try to clientise them instead?

It won't be as high profile or hurt the USSR as much, but I could still see a low-level surrogate war developing here. Unless - WI the Kabul regime decides to instead allow its Shia Islamists to go to Iran? Cultivate friendly ties and quietly encourage volunteering for the holy war against Saddam Hussein?
 

MrHola

Banned
Truth is, I don't what would happen next. I should do some more research.

One other thing -- wither Pakistan? Ikram Saeed (IIRC) said that without the Afghan War, Zia is good as dead, and one of Benazir's brothers winds up taking over. I don't know enough to be sure. (If so, it totally eliminates Pakistani fundamentalism as we know it. Where are the Saudis going to spend all their conversion money, without Zia and the refugee camps?)

Another interesting question is what happens to Pakistan's nuclear program. Zia didn't start it, but he got a long way to finishing it. I'm inclined to think Benazir's brothers would do it anyway (since their dad had vowed to make the whole country eat grass if necessary to get the bomb finished). But would President Khan set up his side business, in an ATL Pakistan that doesn't have a super-smuggler Inter-Services Intelligence?
 
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