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On August 19, 1978 in Abadan, Iran arsonists set fire to the Cinema Rex movie theater. 422 people died in this attack and the public blamed the Shah and SAVAK for it, although it possibly was a false flag attack by Islamic militants. Before this, the protests against the government had stagnated with the Shah partially giving in to protestors demands by among other things relaxing censorship, replacing the hardline head of SAVAK with someone more moderate, and promising democratic elections to the Majis in 1979. So what if this hadn't happened? Would the Shah have reneged on his political liberalization? Or would this lead to gradual democratization of the country? It goes without saying that the failure of the revolution would have large ramifications. Before the revolution, Iran was a rapidly modernizing country with economic growth comparable to that of South Korea and Taiwan, and it wasn't just oil, while total GDP per capita grew by 8% per year between 1963 and 1976, non oil gdp per capita grew by 8.6%. Iran today would probably have European level living standards. The failure of the revolution butterflies away the 1979 energy crisis, the American hostage standoff, the Iran-Iraq war and maybe the Gulf war. Iran could be an anchor of stability rather than conflict in the middle east. It would also allow the west to back away from oppressive regimes on the Arab peninsula.
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