WI: No Cinema Rex fire

kernals12

Banned
On August 19, 1978 in Abadan, Iran arsonists set fire to the Cinema Rex movie theater. 422 people died in this attack and the public blamed the Shah and SAVAK for it, although it possibly was a false flag attack by Islamic militants. Before this, the protests against the government had stagnated with the Shah partially giving in to protestors demands by among other things relaxing censorship, replacing the hardline head of SAVAK with someone more moderate, and promising democratic elections to the Majis in 1979. So what if this hadn't happened? Would the Shah have reneged on his political liberalization? Or would this lead to gradual democratization of the country? It goes without saying that the failure of the revolution would have large ramifications. Before the revolution, Iran was a rapidly modernizing country with economic growth comparable to that of South Korea and Taiwan, and it wasn't just oil, while total GDP per capita grew by 8% per year between 1963 and 1976, non oil gdp per capita grew by 8.6%. Iran today would probably have European level living standards. The failure of the revolution butterflies away the 1979 energy crisis, the American hostage standoff, the Iran-Iraq war and maybe the Gulf war. Iran could be an anchor of stability rather than conflict in the middle east. It would also allow the west to back away from oppressive regimes on the Arab peninsula.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
I think the public reaction to cinema rex represented the reputational handicaps of the regime.

It was a kind of thing one would straightforwardly expect from religious extremists who hated cinema. And it was probably carried out by such.

But people *wanted* to believe it was Savak and blame the regime.
 

kernals12

Banned
I think the public reaction to cinema rex represented the reputational handicaps of the regime.

It was a kind of thing one would straightforwardly expect from religious extremists who hated cinema. And it was probably carried out by such.

But people *wanted* to believe it was Savak and blame the regime.
Too bad.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Don't get me wrong, arsonists being stopped may still be a viable ant-revolutionary PoD.
 
The Shah getting a hart attack and dying, his son becoming the new Shah and announcing that he will start reforms end disband SAVAK might help, ore not depending on the hate of the Iran People at that point.
 
On August 19, 1978 in Abadan, Iran arsonists set fire to the Cinema Rex movie theater. 422 people died in this attack and the public blamed the Shah and SAVAK for it, although it possibly was a false flag attack by Islamic militants.

Presuming that is true, what if SAVAK captures the Islamic militants before the attack and releases proof to the public of what they planned to do?
 
The Shah getting a hart attack and dying, his son becoming the new Shah and announcing that he will start reforms end disband SAVAK might help, ore not depending on the hate of the Iran People at that point.

He wasn't even 18 at the time. Would he have been credible alone?

Plus, who's going to be on his side if he disbands the SAVAK?
Perhaps he could change its name and remove a few discredited characters, but he needs to keep the iron fist, maybe hidden inside a velvet glove.
 
He wasn't even 18 at the time. Would he have been credible alone?

Plus, who's going to be on his side if he disbands the SAVAK?
Perhaps he could change its name and remove a few discredited characters, but he needs to keep the iron fist, maybe hidden inside a velvet glove.
If there are iron fist the people of Iran will still in my eye's rise up against the monarchy.
 

kernals12

Banned
The Shah getting a hart attack and dying, his son becoming the new Shah and announcing that he will start reforms end disband SAVAK might help, ore not depending on the hate of the Iran People at that point.
IOTL, the Shah died of cancer in 1981. Would him holding on for 2 more years be so difficult?
 
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