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I strongly suspect that there would have been less of a Norway Scandal had there been a Different person (that is not Churchill) in charge of the Royal Navy in early 1940.
There would not have been the Norway debate- hence no coalitiion at that point.
Chamberlain had decided that there was no pont in doing deals with Hitler because his word was worthless.
Events in 1940 might have followed similar course except that the Coalition would get formed in June 1940 in reaction to the fall of France...
Absent Churchill does Britain do better. Churchill thought of himself as a sttategic genius. IN hindsight maybe he was not