WI: No Chilean Coup of 1973

[Tales Weaver]

When I read about Allende's suicide after pinochet's coup in 1973, i had a question.

If there wasn't coup by Pinochet which overthrew Allende in 1973, how would Chile look like today? Would chile look like skandinavian countries, or it would looked like venezuela?

 

[Lalli]

Allende would ruin Chilean economy badly and he wouldn't be re-elected if he remain on power to end of his term. In long term Chile might be better altough not necessarility Sandinavian level.

 

[Mackus]

Allende would ruin Chilean economy badly and he wouldn't be re-elected if he remain on power to end of his term.

Nah. Of course he'd be re-elected: with 102% votes!

 

[Caesar_33]

When I read about Allende's suicide after pinochet's coup in 1973, i had a question.

If there wasn't coup by Pinochet which overthrew Allende in 1973, how would Chile look like today? Would chile look like skandinavian countries, or it would looked like venezuela?

depends on what the circumstance is. If the U.S never gets involved in Chile at all, then Allende might make the transition into a genuinely socialist state. You need a well-graphed timeline to determine how functional this Chilean state would be; and it's also mostly up to your personal opinion on Pinochet, Allende & Socialism.

 

[Maoistic]

Chile without fascism would have been an even better place today provided the US didn't use its allies in the region to destroy Chile or wage an economic war, which is another possibility. If that happened, Chile may have actually been worse off.

 

[Monter]

Allende would ruin Chilean economy badly and he wouldn't be re-elected if he remain on power to end of his term. In long term Chile might be better altough not necessarility Sandinavian level.

Of course he wouldn't be re-elected, the Constitution didn't allow that.

But you're right that the economy was bad, whatever it was Allende's or the CIA's fault it's up to debate but it was certainly bad, so Allende's greatest challenge would be retain his base on the 1976 elections, not a easy job as the Congress was dominated by the opposition and he may even get impeached before that.

 

[Zimmerwald1915]

whatever it was Allende's or the CIA's fault it's up to debate but it was certainly bad

Chilean capitalists were provoked by the government or manipulated by foreigners into launching their capital strike! That they could have been prepared to ruin the country of their own free will in order to curb any possible reduction of their power cannot be admitted as a possibility!

 

[Don Draper]

Of course he wouldn't be re-elected, the Constitution didn't allow that.

But you're right that the economy was bad, whatever it was Allende's or the CIA's fault it's up to debate but it was certainly bad, so Allende's greatest challenge would be retain his base on the 1976 elections, not a easy job as the Congress was dominated by the opposition and he may even get impeached before that.

It really isn't up to debate seeing as the CIA itself admits US economic sabotage: https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/chile/#4

In addition to political action, Nixon and Kissinger, according to Helms’s notes, ordered steps to “make the economy scream.”

In any case, Allende wasn't going to stay in power forever even with no coup. I imagine that after he's gone some of his programs get rolled back under the guise of neoliberal reforms, but some would remain and Chile would have higher HDI and lower poverty today.

For me though, the most interesting question is what happens with the Cybersyn project if Allende stays in power and how does it impact the development of the Internet? That's something with potentially enormous, global ramifications, but I don't really know enough to say what form those changes would take.

 

[BeardedHoplite]

Nah. Of course he'd be re-elected: with 102% votes!

And Cybersyn would make Chile the number economy in the world and prove communism right and and and

In all seriousness, from what I have seen it looks like Allende would muddle along until he was voted out.

 

[Pyramus]

Of course he wouldn't be re-elected, the Constitution didn't allow that.

It's not like Allende ever violated the constitution or anything.

 

[kernals12]

We have this ATL, it's called Venezuela.

 

[kernals12]

It really isn't up to debate seeing as the CIA itself admits US economic sabotage: https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/chile/#4



In any case, Allende wasn't going to stay in power forever even with no coup. I imagine that after he's gone some of his programs get rolled back under the guise of neoliberal reforms, but some would remain and Chile would have higher HDI and lower poverty today.

For me though, the most interesting question is what happens with the Cybersyn project if Allende stays in power and how does it impact the development of the Internet? That's something with potentially enormous, global ramifications, but I don't really know enough to say what form those changes would take.

Allende was getting aid from Cuba and the Soviet Union, I think that says a lot about his intentions.

 

[GSpectre]

By the end china and the ussr had both refused to loan Chile under allande any more money... That should tell you the state of their economy by the time of the coupe.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

We have this ATL, it's called Venezuela.

Assuming Allende and his successors were the same level of shithead Chavez is. Of course, Pinochet was thenother side of the shithead coin and is living proof that replacing one corrupt shithead people can't work with with another corrupt shithead in the same vein but with polar opposite political views never works out.

 

[Lenwe]

We have this ATL, it's called Venezuela.

Please if you going to compare Allende´s Government With Venezuela,develop better the idea, Allende´s government commit a lot of fault, but you couldn´t say that in the first presidency of Chavez, there was a direct economic incentive to destroy Venezuela´s economy. Something that was planned by the C.I.A. Kissinger and Nixon even Before Allende´s was elected.
Plus Allende´s never participated in a Coup, Something Than Chavez couldn´t say

By the end china and the ussr had both refused to loan Chile under allande any more money... That should tell you the state of their economy by the time of the coupe.

That was because Allende´s refused to impose more severe measures to maintain itself in the government, in fact he have planed with a speech ready, to call to a plebiscite if he should resign as president the day before the coup he announced this intention to his personal Circle were was included some of the putschists, so the coup, originally planned to be on September 17, was mowed forward to September 11.
We must remember that at first most of the Army supported the Democratically elected presidency, and that to get enough seniority generals that support the coup there was a campaign of assassinations(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/René_Schneider) and some general get to go to the exile and then killed because he still defendant the democratic processes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Prats)

Anyways the Chilean Politic process between 1948 until 1973, is a textbook example of the Cold war diplomatic interference of the Superpowers in the domestic policy of "neutral" nations. After that is a textbook example of the Typical Third world Dictatorship Supported By the USA, event if originally the government was collegiate with all the General of the Armed Force (marina, aviacion y ejercito) and the Police(Carabineros) being Pinochet the one to be Primus inter pares

The economic aspect of a possible complete Allende´s government I going to developed after i get out of work

 

[GSpectre]

Schneider was assassinated before Allende was elected by a bunch of yahoos who had no clue what they where doing, and Pinochet was considered Allende's man through and through right up until the Coupe occurred. In point of fact he wasn't one of the original coupe plotters and was only added in at the last minute almost by chance. In many ways the problems that Allende faced were of his own making, he did not with the presidency with a majority but rather with a plurality, something that is very relivent when you look at the reforms he forced through and their effects. He in effect didn't have the people behind him. That's the reason why he invited the military into the government, he simply didn't have enough trust built up in his competence and program to effect the changes that he wanted without them. Allende launched radical economic reforms and they failed, not to mention that those in his own party who were more radical were trying to provoke a coupe. Page 332 of A history of Chile 1808-2002 (second edition) has a very revealing quate to an american observer; "We are trying to create a situation of disorder and chaos so as to provoke the reactionaries into a coup d'etat." That isn't something that should every come out of a government, especially one which aims to actually govern. When you couple that with bread lines, basic necessity shortages (General Bachelet's job was to administer rations in a fair and even manner as no one who was in the UP coalition was trusted to do so...), Altamirano encouraging both naval mutinies and workers to cease some of the last profitable businesses in Chile, along with the falling price of copper and Allende's administrations inability to adjust their thinking (The reason why the Chinese refused to loan the Chilean's anything was that they expected to be able to pay back the loans via copper sales at a time when production was falling along with the price of copper) you have a recipe for a failed or very nearly failed state to stumble out of the end of Allendes presidency if he doesn't end up couped later from the left or the right or impeached .

Edited to include; The damage is probably so bad that in 78 the Argentine's don't back down and roll over the hallowed out Chilean armed services in a devastating loss. One the encourages the Peruvians and the Bolivians to press their claims militarily...