WI No Chappaquiddick?

IIRC, Nixon was vulnerable in '72, the Democrats just didn't take advantage of that fact. They had rode a strong wave to a better position in Congress two years earlier, and had a number of strong candidates who could potentially beat Nixon (Muskie and Jackson come to mind).

Without Chappaquiddick, I think that EMK might actually enter the race. The Democratic bosses, at this point, would be happy to be rid of Nixon in whatever way possible, and that, combined with grassroots support from the New Left is probably going to be the best way for him to unify the party and carry it forward to 'Ditch Dick' in '72.
 
It's be interesting to see how he goes about drawing down Vietnam. Would the GOP attack him on it, or would they simply go along with the idea of backing out of an increasingly unpopular war?
 
I think he would wait unti 1976, an assuming Watergates happens the same way, he would win. But then it becomes a question if, what would he do differently than Carter?

However, I think he stands a better chance of being re-elected in 1080 than Carter did, just because he had more carisma, and was a more inspiring leader. Not that, that means he is going to win, but it's possible.
 
Here's my take on it.

Ted Kennedy certainly did want to be president. The thing is, Nixon was beatable in 1972, but it would just take a good, charismatic and energetic candidate that was popular among people - that was EMK, especially before Chapaquiddick.

So, if he runs in 1972, he probably does not have a hard time fighting for the Democratic nomination. He probably has two main opponents: George Wallace, for the Southern primaries, and George McGovern, though he probably beats both quite easily. I'd imagine he picks Terry Sanford as his running mate.

In the general campaign, it's hard to say who wins. Nixon, I think, would still do a Watergate, and if it is revealed that Nixon was behind a break-in at Democratic headquarters before the election, the results are probably a blow-out for Kennedy/Sanford. If not, it depends on the campaigning and how popular Nixon is - which is probably half/half.

If EMK does not run in '72, but instead waits for '76, he has a great chance at winning the presidency. If history goes as it does, and Nixon resigns with Gerald Ford becoming president, I can fairly easily say that Kennedy would defeat either Ford or Ronald Reagan. If it's Ford, he has much easier of a chance. If it's Ronald Reagan, there's a chance he could lose, but considering 1976 was more of a Democratic year, I'd say Ted Kennedy would probably win.
 
Does Ted Kennedy run in 1972, or avoid a kamikaze mission and wait for 1976?


RB,

That's a real tough one, but I think LBJ's comment regarding Chappaquiddick can give us some guidance. "Never would've happened if Bobby was there.", remember?

Bobby was the brains of the outfit and, with him gone, Ted has more than enough hubris to run in '72 and not enough political savvy to know not enough to run in '72. Ted will run in '72 and he'll be stomped because Dick Nixon will make damn sure he gets stomped.

Nixon was the sitting president in '72 and nobody, especially a Kennedy and a member of the family who stole the election from him in '60, is going to take the White House away from him. Period.

Nixon and his Plumbers, aptly named because plumbing is the most Stoogely of professions, did whatever they deemed necessary in '72. They hit every Democratic primary candidate good, bad, or middling. Muskie got it right out of the gate. Humphrey got it. Jackson, McCarthy, Sanford, and Lindsay got it too. Even Chisholm got it and she didn't have a chance in hell of winning the nomination. McGovern had been getting it early too and, once he emerged from the convention, he got it even more. Eagleton got it so bad he was run right off the ticket.

People forget this but Nixon and his gang were so determined and so paranoid they burgled the Watergate DNC office nearly a month before the DNC convention.

Ted would have been smeared by Nixon in '72. Nixon had been to China, he was going to end the war, the country was tired of social upheaval of the 60s, all the indications are there even before you add dirty tricks to the equation.

Bobby would have known not to run and would have advised Ted not to do the same. Bobby was gone though and Ted was going to run right into a buzzsaw.

'76 is a harder call, but I still think Ted will lose the nomination. After Watergate, Hays, Podell, the economy, and all the rest the public was fed up with incumbents in both parties. That's one reason Carter won the nomination, he positioned himself as an outsider.

Carter also won because his campaign understood the new primary system better than any of the other Democratic candidates and their campaigns. Would Ted have people around who understood the new system or would he have the same people who been working for Kennedys since the 1960s?

I think Ted gets the nod in '72 and loses big time to Nixon. He then starts the primary trail in '76, with anything used against him in '72 however accurate washed away by the fact that Nixon used it, only to lose to Carter or a Carter-like figure.


Bill
 
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Bill: I don't think Ted understood the new system. The clues can be found back in 1968. During Bobby's OTL run, there was no organized staff like in 1960 or Nixon's '68 operation. Ted tried to be the campaign manager (though the candidate himself was the only capable one), asking the right answers but not knowing what to do with them. I assume the same would happen during 1972- especially against the well-financed and utterly devious Nixon campaign, CREEP and various front organizations. Ted did not know the dirty arts.
 
I don't think Ted understood the new system. The clues can be found back in 1968. During Bobby's OTL run, there was no organized staff like in 1960 or Nixon's '68 operation. Ted tried to be the campaign manager (though the candidate himself was the only capable one), asking the right answers but not knowing what to do with them. I assume the same would happen during 1972- especially against the well-financed and utterly devious Nixon campaign, CREEP and various front organizations. Ted did not know the dirty arts.

RB, I know you have a very high opinion of RFK, but attributing perceived flaws in Robert Kennedy's presidential campaign to his kid brother Edward?

That doesn't strike you as odd?

Anyway, I agree a little with what TNF and DudeAlmighty said.

A Ted Kennedy who had his act together & wasn't tainted by scandal would be a strong candidate in '72, though personally I think Nixon has at least the skills of the Bush/Cheney administration in knowing to use every last ounce of political capital to win another term.
 
Magniac: I was responding to one of Bill's points- my bad. But here's a possible 1972 map.

genusmap.php


(R) Richard M. Nixon/Spiro T. Agnew: 325 EV, 54.4%
(D) Edward M. Kennedy/ Frank Church: 213 EV, 45.4%

Incumbent President: Richard Nixon (R)
 
Bill: I don't think Ted understood the new system. The clues can be found back in 1968.


RB,

That's very telling. If Ted was having trouble in '68, the primary situation in '76 would have flummoxed him even more. The DNC made a series of huge changes after the debacles of '68 and '72. both to the primaries and the convention. Among other things, the national media was involved to a much higher degree and the system had become "front loaded". Both were deliberate changes made to pick a strong candidate earlier to allow more for longer campaigning for the national election.

Carter and his group were the first to truly understand how the new system worked and thus had an enormous edge in the primary campaign. Carter entered the primaries in late '71 with something like 2% name recognition among Democratic voters and was the front runner by mid-March of '72. Their real inexperience showed up in the later national campaign when Ford came within a whisker of of winning despite Carter starting the campaign with a 33 point lead.

I assume the same would happen during 1972- especially against the well-financed and utterly devious Nixon campaign, CREEP and various front organizations.

Agreed.

Ted did not know the dirty arts.

He knew them, he was the bag man for West Virginia in '60 after all, he just didn't know how to use them.

Summing up, I don't think "No Chappaquiddick" equals a Ted Kennedy presidency, especially with Nixon still standing in '72.


Regards,
Bill
 
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