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What if the 1954 Castle Bravo nuclear test did not overyield? My understanding is it wouldn't take much of a PoD to accomplish this - all you need is for someone to discover before the test that Lithium-7 splits into Lithium-6 and a neutron when struck by a fast neutron.

So, aside from On the Beach never being written, what other consequences would there be? For example, how important was Castle Bravo and the Lucky Dragon to the development of the anti-nuclear movement, particularly the opposition to atmospheric testing?
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