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What if instead of pushing to Stalingrad and the Caucasus and attempting to take Baku, the Germans pulled back to the Dnieper and Daugava rivers and tried to hold that as long as possible? How long would it take for the Soviets to push back successfully?
A potential scenario:
Germany still invades in June 1941, but Hitler is eliminated by the end of 1941, so the idea of a relentless offensive loses ground after the Battle of Moscow. Goering or somebody takes over.
By June 1942, after the victory at 2nd Kharkov, the Germans decide on a "provoke the Soviets into an offensive then launch a counteroffensive" strategy, rinse and repeat.
As German resources decline, probably by late 1943, the Germans shore up a defensive line at the Daugava and Dnieper rivers with only local offensives in certain areas.