WI: No Case Blue, Germans create a defensive line along Dnieper and Daugava rivers

Achaemenid Rome

What if instead of pushing to Stalingrad and the Caucasus and attempting to take Baku, the Germans pulled back to the Dnieper and Daugava rivers and tried to hold that as long as possible? How long would it take for the Soviets to push back successfully?

A potential scenario:
  1. Germany still invades in June 1941, but Hitler is eliminated by the end of 1941, so the idea of a relentless offensive loses ground after the Battle of Moscow. Goering or somebody takes over.
  2. By June 1942, after the victory at 2nd Kharkov, the Germans decide on a "provoke the Soviets into an offensive then launch a counteroffensive" strategy, rinse and repeat.
  3. As German resources decline, probably by late 1943, the Germans shore up a defensive line at the Daugava and Dnieper rivers with only local offensives in certain areas.
How long can this situation be sustained?
 

Nik

You must either kill or incapacitate AH so he doesn't give daft orders about 'holding every inch', 'stand in place' etc etc.
 

Anchises

Banned
Achaemenid Rome said:
What if instead of pushing to Stalingrad and the Caucasus and attempting to take Baku, the Germans pulled back to the Dnieper and Daugava rivers and tried to hold that as long as possible? How long would it take for the Soviets to push back successfully?

A potential scenario:
  1. Germany still invades in June 1941, but Hitler is eliminated by the end of 1941, so the idea of a relentless offensive loses ground after the Battle of Moscow. Goering or somebody takes over.
  2. By June 1942, after the victory at 2nd Kharkov, the Germans decide on a "provoke the Soviets into an offensive then launch a counteroffensive" strategy, rinse and repeat.
  3. As German resources decline, probably by late 1943, the Germans shore up a defensive line at the Daugava and Dnieper rivers with only local offensives in certain areas.
How long can this situation be sustained?
Click to expand...

The Germans wouldn't just sit on their on hands after the 2nd Battle at Kharkov. They would probably attack in the Center after securing Rostov and Sevastopol. Or maybe try to end the Siege of Leningrad.
 

Achaemenid Rome

Anchises said:
The Germans wouldn't just sit on their on hands after the 2nd Battle at Kharkov. They would probably attack in the Center after securing Rostov and Sevastopol. Or maybe try to end the Siege of Leningrad.
Click to expand...
How large would these offensives be? And if Hitler died in late 1941 or early 1942, then is it still a foregone conclusion that the German army would go on the offensive again in mid-late 1942?
 

Anchises

Banned
Achaemenid Rome said:
How large would these offensives be? And if Hitler died in late 1941 or early 1942, then is it still a foregone conclusion that the German army would go on the offensive again in mid-late 1942?
Click to expand...

About as large as Blau if the Nazi leadership decides to attack Moscow imho.

In case of Leningrad probably a sizeable troop contingent and limited offensives elsewhere.

Well not going into the offensive means not damaging the Soviet war industry. This means a war of attrition that Germany can't afford, especially with the African front.
And the Germans were highly effective on the offensive. They would (try to at least) use that to destroy large troop formations and to cripple the Soviet industry.
 

Achaemenid Rome

Anchises said:
About as large as Blau if the Nazi leadership decides to attack Moscow imho.

In case of Leningrad probably a sizeable troop contingent and limited offensives elsewhere.

Well not going into the offensive means not damaging the Soviet war industry. This means a war of attrition that Germany can't afford, especially with the African front.
And the Germans were highly effective on the offensive. They would (try to at least) use that to destroy large troop formations and to cripple the Soviet industry.
Click to expand...
In that case, what if the Germans in 1942 perform a sizeable assault on Leningrad and limited offensives elsewhere?
 

Anchises

Banned
Achaemenid Rome said:
In that case, what if the Germans in 1942 perform a sizeable assault on Leningrad and limited offensives elsewhere?
Click to expand...

Leningrad falls, Crimea, Kharkov and Rostov are occupied (in my oppinion).

Then we either have a "Moscow Meatgrinder" or the Russians have to smash through much stronger German lines. If the Generals have more operational freedom we might see a bunch of successful backhand blows and local counter offensives.

If the Soviet Union recieves Lend and Lease this just buys time though.
 
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