WI no Carnation Revolution

Suppose the Portuguese government is somehow able to head off or crush the 1975 coup. How long can the estado novo and their colonial empire keep going and what are the ramifications if both are still around in 2018?
 
The key is keeping general Spinola on side. He had the real counter insurgency vision.
Maybe if operation timber a unita Portuguese alliance got expanded.
The katangase troops needed to work with pigmies.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Suppose the Portuguese government is somehow able to head off or crush the 1975 coup. How long can the estado novo and their colonial empire keep going and what are the ramifications if both are still around in 2018?
From what I know about the Estado Novo, the main reason it failed in the first place was because of the colonial wars. If Portugal had let go of the colonies then the Estado Novo could have lasted a lot longer. Therefore, preserving the Estado Novo while keeping the empire is difficult - you would probably need some POD that causes the colonies to be much less rebellious.
 
From what I know about the Estado Novo, the main reason it failed in the first place was because of the colonial wars. If Portugal had let go of the colonies then the Estado Novo could have lasted a lot longer. Therefore, preserving the Estado Novo while keeping the empire is difficult - you would probably need some POD that causes the colonies to be much less rebellious.
By 74 the Portuguese were very successful in Mozambique and Angola, but still having trouble in Guinea. A longer lasting Estado Novo could have held onto Angola and Mozambique, especially with the rise of African soldiers in the Portuguese Army and oil exploration in Angola
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
By 74 the Portuguese were very successful in Mozambique and Angola, but still having trouble in Guinea. A longer lasting Estado Novo could have held onto Angola and Mozambique, especially with the rise of African soldiers in the Portuguese Army and oil exploration in Angola
Would it have been able to hold onto Mozambique and Angola without drafting mainland Portuguese though?
 
Would democratisation of Spain encourage Portuguese people demand more liberties or even democracy? It might be challeging moment for Estado Novo.
 

Redcoat

Banned
Portugal nearly subdued every rebellion except Guinea. Interesting scenario, since I'm a lusophone at heart
 

Lusitania

Donor
The best ability to stop the captains revolt would of been the persecution of the 1972 revolt leaders. The government’s reaction to that revolt provide the 1974 revolters incentive to carry out their revolt.
 
The Carnation revolution was a revolution waiting to happen. Without political and economic reforms, resentment against the dictatorship will keep rising, and support for it will further fall. The colonial wars only accelerated the decline of a regime that did not have majority support since at least after the end of ww2.
The Estado Novo can only survive for a few more years even if defeats OTL's 1974 revolution. It is considered that, after 1973, when the "Liberal Wing" MPs (reformers within the regime) quit the National Assembly (the Estado Novo rubber-stamp Parliament), there was not longer any basis of support (even minority) for the regime, as it meant that everyone had lost hope of reforming it peacefully.

Regarding the colonial empire, it will disappear. The only differences are in regards to who sets the dominant tone of the transition to democracy:
  • if it is a more conservative faction, the colonies that wish it will progressively move towards increased autonomy and independence.
  • if it's a more moderate faction, the colonies that wish it will move towards independence after free and fair referendums and elections.
  • if it's a more left wing influenced, as in OTL, it will proceed as in otl.
 
Last edited:

Lusitania

Donor
The Carnation revolution was a revolution waiting to happen. Without political and economic reforms, resentment against the dictatorship will keep rising, and support for it will further fall. The colonial wars only accelerated the decline of a regime that did not have majority support since at least after the end of ww2.
The Estado Novo can only survive for a few more years even if defeats OTL's 1974 revolution. It is considered that, after 1973, when the "Liberal Wing" MPs (reformers within the regime) quit the National Assembly (the Estado Novo rubber-stamp Parliament), there was not longer any basis of support (even minority) for the regime, as it meant that everyone had lost hope of reforming it peacefully.

Regarding the colonial empire, it will disappear. The only differences are in regards to who sets the dominant tone of the transition to democracy:
  • if it is a more conservative faction, the colonies that wish it will progressively move towards increased autonomy and independence.
  • if it's a more moderate faction, the colonies that wish it will move towards independence after free and fair referendums and elections.
  • if it's a more left wing influenced, as in OTL, it will proceed as in otl.

A Marcelo Caetano person comes to power in late 1950s after Salazar dies. If the people in charge of Estado Novo implemented real economic changes similar opening the economy while providing greater liberties That might of been the last chance to avert carnation revolution.

Or you can follow my lusophone TL and have a different Estado Novo start.
 
Easy: Salazar gets smart in the 30s and 40s and decides to reduce social tensions in portugal proper by encouraging colonial settlement. As a result, the estado novo lasts into the 1990s, with a few million portuguese having to leave angola/mozambique around then too.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Easy: Salazar gets smart in the 30s and 40s and decides to reduce social tensions in portugal proper by encouraging colonial settlement. As a result, the estado novo lasts into the 1990s, with a few million portuguese having to leave angola/mozambique around then too.
No not Salazar, his Philosophy was to have a small and powerful educated elite ruling the masses. No you need progressive leaders in charge on Estado Novo to allow for integration of the overseas provinces with metropolitan Portugal and to sponsor development and settlement of the country. Remember to check out my lusophone TL where we discuss many of these points.
 
Top