WI: No Carlton Club

After the First World War, the wartime coalition of Conservatives and David Lloyd George's supporters within the Liberals was retained, with Lloyd George remaining Prime Minister. The coalition won a large majority at the 1918 general election, and continued in power until 1922, at which point Conservative MPs voted at a meeting of the Carlton Club to withdraw from the coalition. The Conservatives' decision was largely motivated by several blunders and scandals Lloyd George had become involved in - most notably the Chanak Crisis and the Cash for Honours scandal.
What if the meeting of the Carlton Club never happened, and the Conservatives remained in the coalition? Would the coalition have won the general election, which was scheduled to take place later in 1922 (and eventually did, resulting in Bonar Law becoming PM)? What would the ramifications be of the coalition continuing forward after 1922?
 
Its actually somewhat surprising that the Coalition lasted as long as it did. The political logic was at some point Lloyd George and his followers either had to join the Tories or reunite with the rest of the Liberals. The latter course was more likely but it would have meant the end of the Coalition.

Probably what happens is that in 1923 Lloyd George ends the Coalition himself as part of the process of re-uniting with the Liberals. The 1923 election results would likely be very similar to the IOTL results.

However two immediate changes if this happens is that Lloyd George, not Asquith, leads the Liberals in 1923-4, and Winston Churchill remains a Liberal. Also, if Lloyd George is able to contrive remaining as Prime Minister until the election, the Liberals' bargaining position in 1923 is much stronger. The Prime Minister going into a hung Parliament remains in office until kicked out. There was a timeline here once that started with the 1923 results changed slightly so it was Labour supporting a Liberal government instead of the other way around, which had butterflies. You could get the same here, except with Lloyd George instead of Asquith as the Liberal leader.
 
The political logic was at some point Lloyd George and his followers either had to join the Tories or reunite with the rest of the Liberals. The latter course was more likely
Interesting. Judging by what I have read about inter-war Britain, the reason why the Liberals didn't re-unite earlier was because Lloyd George and Asquith hated each other so greatly after Lloyd George replaced Asquith as PM. Indeed, it was only the possibility of protectionism being introduced that urged Lloyd George and Asquith to put personal differences aside and unite the party. So why would Lloyd George and Asquith put their differences aside if there is no threat to free trade? Wasn't Lloyd George's intention instead to try and unite the Conservatives and his Liberals into one party (similar to how, in New Zealand, the United-Reform Coalition became the National Party)?
 
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