WI: no Borki train disaster

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borki_train_disaster

WI the Borki train crash never happens. Tsar Alexander III does not die at 49 but dies at say 75 years old, in 1920.

We see anti-reformation policy, just as with Nicholas II, but Alex III is more dominant, convinced and has better relationships with ministers.
The peacekeeper as he is called, does not drag the country in the Russio-Japanese war, has more control over the rightwing forces at court etc.

He will have to deal with revolutionary forces from 1900 and later. Perhaps he will do better, perhaps not who knows?

Furthermore, I believe he will not try to surprise the German army in august 1914 in East Prussia and attack while being unprepared to do so but will wait for the Germans to come invading Russia as planned in the Schlieffen plan. Of course, this may never happen because the Germans have their hands full in the west. He then may even avoid war at all for Russia.

What do you think about that. Does this sound realistic?
 
No 1904-5 war with Japan, no WWI in the east; therefore a lot less chance (though not impossible) that there'll be a revolution--most likely after 1920, when Alexander dies. OTOH, the authorities will be expecting trouble at the time of a turnover of Tsars--so they'll be arresting anyone who even looks like a revolutionary...:)
 
If the Borki disaster does not occur, Sergei Witte probably doesn't get promoted to railway minister or finance minister. Russia doesn't adopt the gold standard; and there is much less foreign investment or industrial growth during the 1890s.
 
If the Borki disaster does not occur, Sergei Witte probably doesn't get promoted to railway minister or finance minister. Russia doesn't adopt the gold standard; and there is much less foreign investment or industrial growth during the 1890s.

I think Witte had great political talent. He would have been Prime minister or Finance minister anyway perhaps later but he would still get to the top.
 
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There's very little evidence that Borki precipitated Alexander III's ill health and early death. Far more likely is that his drinking (despite doctor's advice) and his overwork made the problem life threatening.
 
I think what numbletoes says is very likely.

A more succesful WWI for Russia could save the monarchy. But there is the need for reforms as well. Alex III will fight these powers but when Nicky comes to power, it may all erupt into Revolution. Maybe it will be a more silent turnover because the problems of the famlly with hemophilia etc. will not be that disturbing (if ever present)

It would be interesting to see how Russia would develop under Alex III. He is as conservative as Nicky was, but more firm, a stronger personality who wants to be in the center of power. This firmness could be an advantage. But it could be counterproductive. What is more likely you think?
 
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