WI: No Boer Wars?

Basically what it says on the tin. What PODs would it take to prevent the Boer wars from happening, and what would be the consequences of the Boer wars never happening?
 

katchen

Banned
SAR falls under the protection of Portugal from Mozambique instead of being this independent but landlocked with Orange Free State)) nation. Brazillian rule of Angola and Mozambique would probably accomplish the same thing since Brazillian bandierantes would expand between them early in the 19th century and south to the Orange River--maybe even establishing a claim before the time of the Great Trek.
 
If there isn't any gold and diamonds found within the boer republics, Britain might leave them alone. Just because it's more work then it's worth. Wait a few decades and maybe if the gold is found after WW1 in atl. It doesn't matter who wins as long the British are weakend like otl after WW1.
 
Portugal wouldn't assume control, it was too weak in comparison to Britain. The big thing is if no Jameson Raid prevents the OTL outbreak then the unsustainable situation on the Goldfields is going to continue. Sooner or later there's going to be a confrontation between the Uitlanders and the Boers and then you might well have Britain "reluctantly" step in to "restore order" and never quite get around to leaving.
 
Basically what it says on the tin. What PODs would it take to prevent the Boer wars from happening, and what would be the consequences of the Boer wars never happening?

The situation was quite unsustainable, ever since the first Boer war. Britain had been beaten by a bunch of farmer militias, and Britain had never really forgiven the Boer republics for it. It was a question of who would control the destiny of southern Africa, from the Cape to the Zambesi - the Boers or the British. What brought the matter to a head was the rights denied to the Uitlanders by the Boer republics (cannot blame them really - it would have, sooner or later, made them the minority in their own republics). The final bit was the Jameson raid, the Kaiser-Kruger bonhomie, and last but not the least, the appointment of a warmonger like Alfred Milner to south Africa. Milner was a British supremacist, and he believed in subordinating the Boers to the British - he was not going to give up the game at any cost. So - it was a question of sooner or later. Unless you are willing to go to a PoD before the first Boer war, it is inevitable that the British and the Boers will confront each other.
 
The situation was quite unsustainable, ever since the first Boer war. Britain had been beaten by a bunch of farmer militias, and Britain had never really forgiven the Boer republics for it. It was a question of who would control the destiny of southern Africa, from the Cape to the Zambesi - the Boers or the British. What brought the matter to a head was the rights denied to the Uitlanders by the Boer republics (cannot blame them really - it would have, sooner or later, made them the minority in their own republics). The final bit was the Jameson raid, the Kaiser-Kruger bonhomie, and last but not the least, the appointment of a warmonger like Alfred Milner to south Africa. Milner was a British supremacist, and he believed in subordinating the Boers to the British - he was not going to give up the game at any cost. So - it was a question of sooner or later. Unless you are willing to go to a PoD before the first Boer war, it is inevitable that the British and the Boers will confront each other.

When talking about Boer wars, and not just the Second Boer war, I think it`s safe to assume that PoDs that prevent the first one are allowed.
 

katchen

Banned
Honestly though, I can think of ONE POD that would prevent EITHER Boer War from happening.
The POD is circa 1850, just after the Boers have established their independent states following the Great Trek. Pretorius petitions the Dutch government to petition Portugal to make a trade. Some or all of Mozambique for some or all of the Eastern Dutch East Indies.At the very least, Lourenco Marques for Kupang, giving Portugal all of Timor. Option 2. Additionally, Sofala and Beira and Manica for the Moluccas. Option 3, all that and Makassar too and Sulawesi for Mocambique and Nacala and the rest of Mozambique. And the South African Republic and Orange Vrysteit become Dutch Protectorates, since the Afrikaners are ethnic Dutch. And thus they get an open stream of investment and protection from any possibility of British aggression.
I''m pretty sure that both the Portuguese and the Dutch would be agreeable to this arrangement--much to the British chagrin since the Netherlands has yet to abolish slavery. Neither Portuguese Timor nor Mozambique are profitable for Portugal as they are. An expanded Portuguese East Indies might be as profitable as the Philippines are to Spain--and certainly predominantly Christian. And Mozambique and the veld likely profitable colonies for the Netherlands. And the Afrikaners are Dutch. I should think that the Dutch will be free to expand all the way across to Namibia. Looks like Lord Milner and Cecil Rhodes will have to build their empire someplace else. Down Under or East African Protectorate and Abyssynia and Yemen or New Guinea. But someplace else. :rolleyes:
 
As others have said, it is relatively difficult to prevent the Boer Wars without quite an early POD.

I read an article by the well-known South African historian, Arthur Keppel-Jones, about a way the Boer Wars could have been averted.

The details are hazy but Keppel-Jones says that in the 1850s there was a good chance of the Orange Free State aligning itself with the British, rather than their fellow Boers in the Transvaal. This may have resulted in a loose federation of the OFS, Cape Colony, and Natal, with the Transvaal relatively isolated.

This may not get rid of the Boer wars, but who knows what kind of butterflies would have resulted from that?
 
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Honestly though, I can think of ONE POD that would prevent EITHER Boer War from happening.
The POD is circa 1850, just after the Boers have established their independent states following the Great Trek. Pretorius petitions the Dutch government to petition Portugal to make a trade. Some or all of Mozambique for some or all of the Eastern Dutch East Indies.At the very least, Lourenco Marques for Kupang, giving Portugal all of Timor. Option 2. Additionally, Sofala and Beira and Manica for the Moluccas. Option 3, all that and Makassar too and Sulawesi for Mocambique and Nacala and the rest of Mozambique. And the South African Republic and Orange Vrysteit become Dutch Protectorates, since the Afrikaners are ethnic Dutch. And thus they get an open stream of investment and protection from any possibility of British aggression.
I''m pretty sure that both the Portuguese and the Dutch would be agreeable to this arrangement--much to the British chagrin since the Netherlands has yet to abolish slavery. Neither Portuguese Timor nor Mozambique are profitable for Portugal as they are. An expanded Portuguese East Indies might be as profitable as the Philippines are to Spain--and certainly predominantly Christian. And Mozambique and the veld likely profitable colonies for the Netherlands. And the Afrikaners are Dutch. I should think that the Dutch will be free to expand all the way across to Namibia. Looks like Lord Milner and Cecil Rhodes will have to build their empire someplace else. Down Under or East African Protectorate and Abyssynia and Yemen or New Guinea. But someplace else. :rolleyes:

You`re really pushing for this "Portugal expands" thing, aren`t you. This is the fourth or fifth thread I`vs seen you suggest it.
 
The situation was quite unsustainable, ever since the first Boer war. Britain had been beaten by a bunch of farmer militias, and Britain had never really forgiven the Boer republics for it. It was a question of who would control the destiny of southern Africa, from the Cape to the Zambesi - the Boers or the British. What brought the matter to a head was the rights denied to the Uitlanders by the Boer republics (cannot blame them really - it would have, sooner or later, made them the minority in their own republics). The final bit was the Jameson raid, the Kaiser-Kruger bonhomie, and last but not the least, the appointment of a warmonger like Alfred Milner to south Africa. Milner was a British supremacist, and he believed in subordinating the Boers to the British - he was not going to give up the game at any cost. So - it was a question of sooner or later. Unless you are willing to go to a PoD before the first Boer war, it is inevitable that the British and the Boers will confront each other.

I don't think the Boers would ever have been in that position.

They were too few, too poor, and too loosely organised, to ever control such a large territory. The ZAR didn't even control all its own territory, with African chiefdoms often ruling large parts of the country, especially in the north and north-eastern parts.
 
Honestly though, I can think of ONE POD that would prevent EITHER Boer War from happening.
The POD is circa 1850, just after the Boers have established their independent states following the Great Trek. Pretorius petitions the Dutch government to petition Portugal to make a trade. Some or all of Mozambique for some or all of the Eastern Dutch East Indies.At the very least, Lourenco Marques for Kupang, giving Portugal all of Timor. Option 2. Additionally, Sofala and Beira and Manica for the Moluccas. Option 3, all that and Makassar too and Sulawesi for Mocambique and Nacala and the rest of Mozambique. And the South African Republic and Orange Vrysteit become Dutch Protectorates, since the Afrikaners are ethnic Dutch. And thus they get an open stream of investment and protection from any possibility of British aggression.
I''m pretty sure that both the Portuguese and the Dutch would be agreeable to this arrangement--much to the British chagrin since the Netherlands has yet to abolish slavery. Neither Portuguese Timor nor Mozambique are profitable for Portugal as they are. An expanded Portuguese East Indies might be as profitable as the Philippines are to Spain--and certainly predominantly Christian. And Mozambique and the veld likely profitable colonies for the Netherlands. And the Afrikaners are Dutch. I should think that the Dutch will be free to expand all the way across to Namibia. Looks like Lord Milner and Cecil Rhodes will have to build their empire someplace else. Down Under or East African Protectorate and Abyssynia and Yemen or New Guinea. But someplace else. :rolleyes:

Were the Dutch or Portuguese strong enough to antagonise the British in this way? I find it unlikely.

Remember, not all Afrikaners are ethnically Dutch, the average Afrikaner has a mix of mainly Dutch and German ancestry, a dollop of British (mainly Scottish blood), with a pinch of Khoi or Bantu blood too.
 
As others have said, it is relatively difficult to prevent the Boer Wars without quite an early POD.

I read an article by the well-known South African historian, Arthur Keppel-Jones, about a way the Boer Wars could have been averted.

The details are hazy but Keppel-Jones says that in the 1850s there was a good chance of the Orange Free State aligning itself with the British, rather than their fellow Boers in the Transvaal. This may have resulted in a loose federation of the OFS, Caper Colony, and Natal, with the Transvaal relatively isolated.

This may not get rid of the Boer wars, but who knows what kind of butterflies would have resulted from that?

Ive read an Osprey book about the Battle of Isandlwana in which the author states a British victory there could have discouraged the Boers from armed resistance.
 
Remember, not all Afrikaners are ethnically Dutch, the average Afrikaner has a mix of mainly Dutch and German ancestry, a dollop of British (mainly Scottish blood), with a pinch of Khoi or Bantu blood too.
and maybe some Huguenot French blood, IIRC, as well.
 
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