WI: No Blank Cheque in 1914

BlondieBC

Banned
Russia will also have the leisure to actually start building a real system of co-ordination. It was the absence of such a system that made the OTL Tannenberg battle possible, as it meant that even if Rennenkampf and Samsonov weren't out to get each other they had no idea who was doing what to whom when. Their issues of terrain and the enemy having interior lines will still exist, but in this case the German tactical results will be IMHO rather far short of the OTL ones.

Yes, the Russian have a much better plan. And Germany has a better plan. Most likely, Russia will run a modified version of Plan Germany and allow Poland to fall. In A-L, there will be a grinding Verdun like battle but minus the heavy artillery, so indecisive. In the East, it will be the Central Powers trying to break the fortress lines of Russia. It looks different than OTL, but the war will still last years.
 
If OTL the Kaiser at least wavered with the thought of war with Britain, asking Moltke about the possibility of going east. Then if during the slower build up to this crisis it become obvious that Britain doesn't consider Serbia as a critical interest to her, then the Germans with time to think about all this might take a look at a situation where they could fight France and Russia alone and win a limited victory (perhaps no fighting at all is required then for a diplomatic victory).

Now if Germany is convinced that Russia is becoming a increasingly powerful steamroller that will undoubtably roll over her at some future date then the OTL west first, do it now plan sort of makes some sense. I can see career military insiders obsessing about Russia, but reasonable people with a month to think about will realize that Germany is an country with an ever more prosperous future and that even Russia wouldn't attack a war like country like Germany unprovoked without a great deal of risk (sort of like Tirpitz risk theory but with land forces). And really Russia and Germany have no direct quarrels (no Alscase-Lorraine like territorial disputes, both reactionary monarchys and such)

People like Tirpitz and Ballin had the Kaisers ear and could convice him with enough time that a real shooting war with Britain, France, Russia, Belgium and Serbia with only Austria as an ally was a bad idea (Tirpitz if only for his fleet interests, Ballin for his merchant interests)

I think there are a huge number of problems with this assertion. First among them is that IOTL Germany never seriously looked into the strength of the Russian or Austro-Hungarian armies. There was no joint planning among Austro-Hungarian and German military forces. German logistics on both ends of the front ran on wishful thinking, Germany was not inclined to listen to people warning it that its plans were not going to work. Germany also showed no inclination to respect political concerns if military expediency demanded ignoring them. Alter these factors and you might see some changes. Alter these factors and you see a completely alien war to OTL.
 
Yes, the Russian have a much better plan. And Germany has a better plan. Most likely, Russia will run a modified version of Plan Germany and allow Poland to fall. In A-L, there will be a grinding Verdun like battle but minus the heavy artillery, so indecisive. In the East, it will be the Central Powers trying to break the fortress lines of Russia. It looks different than OTL, but the war will still last years.

I disagree with this, primarily because IOTL Germany's army staked too much on the Schlieffen Plan in its internal disputes to alter it to reflect mundane reality in a 1914 context. In 1914, too, Russia is banking on striking for Austria-Hungary, not Germany, though the additional mobilization time might permit them to have three armies, not two, in East Prussia (which does nothing to alter the terrain problem), as well as to menace Silesia right out of the starting gate. Russia's strength has less to do with why Germany will still follow the OTL offensive plan, internal politics and Moltke the Younger's resolute lack of imagination, OTOH, have quite a bit to do with it.
 
I think there are a huge number of problems with this assertion. First among them is that IOTL Germany never seriously looked into the strength of the Russian or Austro-Hungarian armies. There was no joint planning among Austro-Hungarian and German military forces. German logistics on both ends of the front ran on wishful thinking, Germany was not inclined to listen to people warning it that its plans were not going to work. Germany also showed no inclination to respect political concerns if military expediency demanded ignoring them. Alter these factors and you might see some changes. Alter these factors and you see a completely alien war to OTL.

There is no way to know what might have happened of course:

I think if Germany can get outside its few day mobilization/war window that are enough smart people around, that these war plans, still largely academic to that point can be reviewed in the light of day with a few weeks to really think about it (vs. OTL the Kaiser asking Falkenhyhn if the army is ready and Falkenhyn obiediently clicking his heels with a yes).

Time and knowlege is the enemy of people trying to railroad an agenda (if we are assuming there is a miltary faction in Germany pushing for the big war with a west first plan, because now is the time, we have all these war toys ready, and thats what we have planned vs. the bulk of the people who just want live their lives, get rich, get married, maybe shoot up Hottentots and Chinese people for some fun, but nothing serious like another seven years war which is what this really is)

The smart people of Germany like Ballin close to the Kaiser should use the fact that the Kaiser is a loose cannon to get him to make speeches to circumvent the generals and the run up to war. The Crown Prince figured out Germany was going to lose the war two weeks before Amiens in 1918, long before people like Ludendorf did. Tirpitz thought any big war at that time was a bad idea, so there are reasonable people close to the Kaiser along with civilian leadership that can influence things to make 1914 completey alien to what we have now.

Now these people might prevent war at all vs. an east front strategy or might just impress on the military that there is strict limits on how far we can push things with out a real war (occupy Belgrade, dont cross the borders until the Russians do etc..)
 
There is no way to know what might have happened of course:

I think if Germany can get outside its few day mobilization/war window that are enough smart people around, that these war plans, still largely academic to that point can be reviewed in the light of day with a few weeks to really think about it (vs. OTL the Kaiser asking Falkenhyhn if the army is ready and Falkenhyn obiediently clicking his heels with a yes).

Time and knowlege is the enemy of people trying to railroad an agenda (if we are assuming there is a miltary faction in Germany pushing for the big war with a west first plan, because now is the time, we have all these war toys ready, and thats what we have planned vs. the bulk of the people who just want live their lives, get rich, get married, maybe shoot up Hottentots and Chinese people for some fun, but nothing serious like another seven years war which is what this really is)

The smart people of Germany like Ballin close to the Kaiser should use the fact that the Kaiser is a loose cannon to get him to make speeches to circumvent the generals and the run up to war. The Crown Prince figured out Germany was going to lose the war two weeks before Amiens in 1918, long before people like Ludendorf did. Tirpitz thought any big war at that time was a bad idea, so there are reasonable people close to the Kaiser along with civilian leadership that can influence things to make 1914 completey alien to what we have now.

Now these people might prevent war at all vs. an east front strategy or might just impress on the military that there is strict limits on how far we can push things with out a real war (occupy Belgrade, dont cross the borders until the Russians do etc..)

If the Germans had any will do this, that they were banking on assumptions and willful ignorance of the gap 9 years had made in Russian reform in their army and speed of mobilization calls it into doubt. Germany *can* do this. Whether it actually would due to the inherent factionalism is an open question. Russia at least has some chance of establishing a Stavka with teeth if it gets time, whether this actually happens is itself an open question given the huge difficulties involved.

Likewise, whether a German full-scale invasion of Russia would be an answer to the problem that France was going to send five armies into Alsace-Lorraine is a major question. I do not think WWI Germany has what it takes to invade deep into the Russian interior and come off better for it, not without that Germany being tied into a long war of indeterminate length and fumbling for a means to crush Russia and hope that Austria-Hungary's idiot generals don't wreck their army and enable the Russians to outflank them in the process.
 
Likewise, whether a German full-scale invasion of Russia would be an answer to the problem that France was going to send five armies into Alsace-Lorraine is a major question. I do not think WWI Germany has what it takes to invade deep into the Russian interior and come off better for it, not without that Germany being tied into a long war of indeterminate length and fumbling for a means to crush Russia and hope that Austria-Hungary's idiot generals don't wreck their army and enable the Russians to outflank them in the process.

I also think that any German east first strategy with Britain in the war against Germany is doomed to fail in the end. Basically any way you slice it, with any strategy you choose, Britain, France and Russia (along with assorted minor powers) is a pretty tough combination for Germany and Austria to ever beat. The east front could just end up asorbing German strength without real gains.

With any scenerio Germany has to accept a limited victory, dont invade Belgium and before Britain feels the need to come in to keep things balanced, Germany better make a decent peace deal. An eastern strategy offers the possibility of a compromise peace for longer because Russian mobilization does not have to equal war.

In this TL, without the blank check, hopefully the diplomacy would play out longer with a limited German/Austrian diplomatic victory with the Germans patient enough not to trigger full scale war because the Russians are mobilizing some armies against Austria.
 
The Germans were not simply backing an Austrian play they were actively encouraging a military solution and attempting to sabotage anything short of war. Not issuing the Cheque has profound implications for German politics either the Kaiser has directly told the General staff to sod off or he has taken counsel.

While I can see parts of AH still wanting the war the moderate views will be louder and Conrad in particular having a difficult time explaining how he beats Russia with guarantee of German support.

On the other hand Serbia is quite deferential to Russia at the moment and I can see lots of monarchs being quite keen on rooting out assassins of whatever stripe in the aftermath so politically Serbia may be forced to investigate the Black Hand and that too has consequences.
 
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