WI: No Black Hawk down?

[deathscompanion1]

Simple question Battle of Mogadishu goes differently no US casualties targets captured what next?

Chances are that a Black Hawk will get shot down eventually as several groups were preparing to do that next chance they got anyway but I understand that one had been shot down earlier to little effect on the public opinion of the mission in Somalia.

 

[TxCoatl1970]

The whole strike on Aidid was a mess.

I read Black Hawk Down, and the gist of it was that when the Army relieved the Marines, they wanted to go light, using Rangers and Delta with restricted ROE (no Spooky gunships or tanks that would've crushed Aidid in fifteen minutes but causing massive collateral casualties. In essence, the Airborne hoped surprise and elan would carry the day.
Aidid wasn't stupid, he knew he could resist all day if the UN peacekeepers went with restricted ROE and the American CO Garrison was an arrogant toolbox who didn't want to listen to the Marines or other UNOSOM allies or Somalis who knew Aidid either.
If they'd gone in heavy from the start, less American/UNOSOM casualties, and a more decisive victory, and probably 3-5K more Somali dead.
regrettable, but if it butterflies the 500K dead and 1.5M refugees , worth it IMO.

Also, if UNOSOM II isn't a striking example of no good deed going unpunished, better chances of decisive UN ground interventions in Rwanda and Bosnia. I'd say 95% in Rwanda's case and maybe 50-60% in Bosnia's case. Bosnia is a tough situation b/c you had Serbia styling itself as Yugoslavia and Russia doing a lot to muddy the waters.

 

[Cook]

I had a mate in the Australian SAS over there at the time. They were asked to assess conducting a snatch and grab on Aidid’s primary subordinates and on Aidid if his whereabouts could be determined; thier proposal involved a large distraction operation to be conducted just prior to the assault on the leadership. The Americans rejected the proposal. He was also dumbfounded by the way the rangers and Delta would repeatedly conduct operations with little or no variation in planning.

 

[deathscompanion1]

So if they went in hard with fire power Aidid would have been crushed?

I thought they tried that when they attacked the HG tribal meeting with gunships.

 

[TxCoatl1970]

I'm working with broad strokes based on reading the book a few years back and wiki, so bear with the inaccuracies.

UNOSOM tried to go after a tribal meeting with gunships that plastered the area but didn't bag the Persons of Interest. Whether you say the intel was bad, execution was bad, timing was off, whatever, it clear nobody in DC wanted collateral casualties after that.

That's why Garrison called in Delta and Airbone to try stealth instead of firepower. As mentioned upthread, they were successful at bagging junior lieutenants with the scoot, scoop, and run tacs using helos to distract from ground attacks, ground attacks to allow air drops to assault, bag, and bail.

However, trying to do that in the middle of Mog after the Americans'd tried that multiple times allowed Aidid's crew to monkey-wrench the aerial assualt. Technicals and militia were able to keep the HMMV ground attack at bay for hours when tanks were needed to smash the barricades.

I mention Spooky (AC-130) and Apache gunships because they could've blasted "technical" barricades clear in seconds. I'd have loved to see the mob go after the downed pilots if Spooky does a run or two over them or a couple of Apaches are overwatch.
It'd be a massacre and all over the world's news- UN forces massacre hundreds of "civilians" during humanitarian mission. Never mind dozens of militiamen were firing AK's, RPG's and RPK's using civilians as meatshields.

Let me make this perfectly clear:

I don't revel in firepower for firepower's sake or more Somali dead but compared to the slow-motion tragedy of famine and civil war gripping Somalia, a few more hundred more Somali dead and Aidid either dead or in custody would've saved thousands of Somali lives.
IMO worth doing it.