I think a good POD for this could be no unified Mongol Empire, which could prevent the disease from spreading at least to Europe and Africa from Central Asia (don't know about east Asia though).
Europe I think is still due for a Malthusian collapse. If it is not the black death, then potentially war or famine could thin the numbers. Without the black death which empowered the commoners by creating labor shortages, very restrictive hierarchies remain in place and could, I think, spark rebellion. A crowded Europe with shrinking space for food production and increasingly poor peasants being brutally exploited could see violence explode in the form of peasant revolts and religious turmoil.
In Africa, political consolidation based on controlling trade across the Sahara continues uninterrupted. The exact sort of states that would arise from this are a bit of a mystery-we may see empires like that of Mali IOTL, but perhaps we could see states develop Athenian democracies out of the coming of age ceremonial cultures.
In the New World, without farming land being opened in Scandinavia the Greenland colony may never be abandoned. Perhaps the Greenlanders would even decide to take another go at colonizing 'Vinland' as arable land becomes scarcer in their home and the Inuit put pressure on the colony.