WI No Battle of The Bulge and No Operation Spring Awakening?

The Battle of the Bulge and Operation Spring Awakening two completely useless offensives and anybody with any brains could have seen that. Hitler however didn't. Both of these offensives completely destroyed Germany's last good reserves with the first one destroying most of Germany's armor and Luftwaffe.

Now lets say Hitler was by some godly miracle convinced that these two offensives would only be detrimental to Germany and that he should cancel them. Now I know that Germany would still lose, but what exactly would be the effects?

Would the war continue long enough for the atom bomb to be used on Germany? What kind of battles might we see happening now that Germany has more resources? How would the strategic situation develop until Germany's defeat?

Edit: On a side note what would happen if the things above were done in combination with the evacuation of the Courland Pocket?
 
Last edited:
The Battle of the Bulge and Operation Spring Awakening two completely useless offensives and anybody with any brains could have seen that. Hitler however didn't. Both of these offensives completely destroyed Germany's last good reserves with the first one destroying most of Germany's armor and Luftwaffe.

Now lets say Hitler was by some godly miracle convinced that these two offensives would only be detrimental to Germany and that he should cancel them. Now I know that Germany would still lose, but what exactly would be the effects?

Would the war continue long enough for the atom bomb to be used on Germany? What kind of battles might we see happening now that Germany has more resources? How would the strategic situation develop until Germany's defeat?

In fact, correct me of I'm wrong, the Germans were already straining there resources as it was in fighting 4 fronts (Italy, West, East, Norway [Hitler thought and invasion was imminent]). And yes, the Ardennes Offensive completely destroyed their last chance of winning. But Spring Awakening was NOT a useless offensive, it showed the Soviets the Germans could still fight back, and as a result, Stalin ordered the advance to halt, giving Germany another month or so.

So, what would have happened if the offensives were never attempted? Well, the Soviets would have continued their relentless drive into Germany, and gotten to Berlin a month earlier, and the Allies would have been slowed down at the Rhine River due to the German troops still there. The tanks on the West front would have stalled them for awhile. At around the same time the Soviets take Berlin, the Allies will JUST be beginning their offensive due to the generals thinking the Germans were just about finished. Now, after the Soviets take Berlin, I believe that the Germans would have attempted a huge breakout west into France and possibly down to Spain to be sheltered by the Spanish dictator, even though Spain was neutral. This might have succeeded since it was spring then and there would be little to no mud. The allied air power MAY have stopped it but you never know with the Germans, eh?

So, the end result is:
-Soviet control of all of Germany
-A possible 4th Reich in Spain
-Possible use of atom bomb in Spain or German thrust toward Spain
-Another World War
[/LIST].
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Now lets say Hitler was by some godly miracle convinced that these two offensives would only be detrimental to Germany and that he should cancel them. Now I know that Germany would still lose, but what exactly would be the effects?

The Germans probably would have attempted a series of smaller and more realistic attacks to gain strategic positions in the West to improve their defenses ahead of the inevitable Allied spring offensive. Then they would have transferred as much of their armor to the Eastern Front to and knock back the Russians.

It might have delayed the collapse of the Third Reich by a few weeks, perhaps even a few months, but probably not long enough for the deployment of nuclear weapons. Besides, if Germany is still holding on by August it will the process of collapsing and there would be little reason for nuking any cities.

Without the stupid mass airstrike the Germans attempted on New Year's Day, 1945, to try to get the offensive moving again, they would have been able to mount the so-called "Big Blow" against Allied bomber fleet. It would have inflicted a lot of losses on the Allies, but it wouldn't change anything.

Now, after the Soviets take Berlin, I believe that the Germans would have attempted a huge breakout west into France and possibly down to Spain to be sheltered by the Spanish dictator, even though Spain was neutral. This might have succeeded since it was spring then and there would be little to no mud. The allied air power MAY have stopped it but you never know with the Germans, eh?

ASB in the extreme. Where would they get the fuel? Why would the Allies simply let them run across France? This scenario makes no sense.
 
In fact, correct me of I'm wrong, the Germans were already straining there resources as it was in fighting 4 fronts (Italy, West, East, Norway [Hitler thought and invasion was imminent]). And yes, the Ardennes Offensive completely destroyed their last chance of winning. But Spring Awakening was NOT a useless offensive, it showed the Soviets the Germans could still fight back, and as a result, Stalin ordered the advance to halt, giving Germany another month or so.

So, what would have happened if the offensives were never attempted? Well, the Soviets would have continued their relentless drive into Germany, and gotten to Berlin a month earlier, and the Allies would have been slowed down at the Rhine River due to the German troops still there. The tanks on the West front would have stalled them for awhile. At around the same time the Soviets take Berlin, the Allies will JUST be beginning their offensive due to the generals thinking the Germans were just about finished. Now, after the Soviets take Berlin, I believe that the Germans would have attempted a huge breakout west into France and possibly down to Spain to be sheltered by the Spanish dictator, even though Spain was neutral. This might have succeeded since it was spring then and there would be little to no mud. The allied air power MAY have stopped it but you never know with the Germans, eh?

So, the end result is:
-Soviet control of all of Germany
-A possible 4th Reich in Spain
-Possible use of atom bomb in Spain or German thrust toward Spain
-Another World War
[/list]
.


In the beginning you made sense but by the end you were talking nonsense. First off, where the hell did you hear that the Soviet Union stopped all of its offensives for a month just because of Operation Spring Awakening. The Vienna Offensive and the East Prussian offensive must have slipped your mind. By no Battle of the Bulge I didn't mean that it was canceled at the last minute, I meant that actual preparations for it were never made so this means that many of those divisions who fought in this battle would instead be on the eastern front.

Now the last thing you said was plain retarded. I can see the Luftwaffe or various U-boats doing this if ordered, but field units, are you out of your mind? The allies hold a line opposite from the Germans, to think that significant German numbers might get across it is just ridiculous. Where would they get the oil? Infact why would so much oil be held in reserve on the Western Front when it would have been used in the East for defense? Just look at the Battle of the Bulge for a good example of a breakout attempt. The Germans got their asses kicked. And to think that a repeat with less supplies and less divisions would work is just plain ignorance. Now I can see a handful of men getting to Spain, but whole divisions hell no.

The part about the atom bomb being dropped in Spain is so stupid that I am not even going to respond to that.
 
In fact, correct me of I'm wrong, the Germans were already straining there resources as it was in fighting 4 fronts (Italy, West, East, Norway [Hitler thought and invasion was imminent]). And yes, the Ardennes Offensive completely destroyed their last chance of winning. But Spring Awakening was NOT a useless offensive, it showed the Soviets the Germans could still fight back, and as a result, Stalin ordered the advance to halt, giving Germany another month or so.

Spring Awakening was sheer stupidity. Hitler Wasted away his ladt good armoured formations for a goal that was not even secondary. Trying to hold Hungary when storm was about to break in Poland is like stitching hand wound while ignoring gaping chest wound.

OTOH germany had no mreal options left on E front. If they commit forces to Poland then forces in Rumania/Hungary have an easier going. Spring offensive is bloodier for Red Army but they have fewer losses and easier going south. But Berlin axis was the place for Soviets.

Overall it might delay war for a few weeks, month tops but end result is same. If Wallies have an easier going then they advance further but still stop at demarcation lines agreed.
 
I Disagree...Sir

Now the last thing you said was plain retarded. I can see the Luftwaffe or various U-boats doing this if ordered, but field units, are you out of your mind? The allies hold a line opposite from the Germans, to think that significant German numbers might get across it is just ridiculous. Where would they get the oil? Infact why would so much oil be held in reserve on the Western Front when it would have been used in the East for defense? Just look at the Battle of the Bulge for a good example of a breakout attempt. The Germans got their asses kicked. And to think that a repeat with less supplies and less divisions would work is just plain ignorance. Now I can see a handful of men getting to Spain, but whole divisions hell no.

It may have worked mind you. The Germans had somewhat amount of fuel to commence the Ardenne Offensive. They simply could have stolen the oil on the way to Spain! Fuel dumps scattered France, especially the Southern regions. And the numbers for once MAY have been in the Germans favor. Imagine all divisions on the West front breaking out. Hitler would have been dead so there is a chance the generals would have accompanied him. Himmler was already looking for a truce with the western allies.

Hitler was also oblivious to the fact that his armies were short of fuel. He refused to take troops away from the Western Front too!
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
It may have worked mind you.

In a poorly-designed computer game circa 1990: maybe. In the real world: not a chance in hell.

The Germans had somewhat amount of fuel to commence the Ardenne Offensive.

Enough to get them about 5% of the way there.

They simply could have stolen the oil on the way to Spain!

And the Allies would have simply let them do this? Get real.

Let's set this nonsense aside and get back to the original question.
 
It may have worked mind you. The Germans had somewhat amount of fuel to commence the Ardenne Offensive. They simply could have stolen the oil on the way to Spain! Fuel dumps scattered France, especially the Southern regions. And the numbers for once MAY have been in the Germans favor. Imagine all divisions on the West front breaking out. Hitler would have been dead so there is a chance the generals would have accompanied him. Himmler was already looking for a truce with the western allies.

Hitler was also oblivious to the fact that his armies were short of fuel. He refused to take troops away from the Western Front too!

The Germans had no fuel and it was only Hitler's stupidity that had the Ardennes Offensive take place. One example is in the north where the Germans had just enough fuel to get half of the way to Antwerp. Just half mind you and you are talking about Spain. Now for the sake of argument lets say that the motorized, mechanized, and panzer divisions manage to capture these miraculous fuel dumps. How are they going to get to Spain, what by traveling on open road? They will get obliterated by the allied airforce. Now I know what you are going to say: "What about the regular infantry divisions, they don't need fuel". But yes, they do they need trucks to supply them on their journey across France. And these trucks how are they going to get their fuel? All of the fuel dumps will be blown up or moved by the Allies once they realize this offensive is happening.

One more thing that you failed to account, in your scenario Berlin was taken so why would the majority of the army continue fighting? I can see some SS platoons continuing the fight but that is just about it. The rest of the army would surrender.

Also where are you getting the idea that Franco will just accept all of these Germans into his country? The British paid him off not to join the axis and he has absolutely nothing to gain from this. You may say he'll get tanks and other heavy equipment but this stuff will no way in hell reach Spain.

And finally the last fact. Have you completely forgotten about the allied army? They will slaughter the half trained half dead German army that is attacking. As soon as they try attacking your going to have a shitload of aircraft descend on them. The Allies have superior everything. As most of Germany has been taken, this force isn't even being supplied. They don't have any oil, most soldiers won't want to fight now that their capital fell. What you are saying is utter nonsense.

And I am an idiot for replying.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
And I am an idiot for replying.

Don't be so hard on yourself. We need to set up a training program to instruct people on how to handle newbies.

Getting back to the original question.

Let's assume that the Germans do the smart thing and use their carefully-horded armored reserves to mount a series of local counter attacks on the Western Front (more like small-scale Operation Nordwind operations than the Ardennes Offensive) to improve their position for the winter. The Germans end December, 1944, without the bulge in the lines, but with a stronger defensive position and without having suffered such heavy losses.

Let's also assume that the horded fighter reserves that the Luftwaffe wasted in Operation Bodenplatte were used as Adolf Galland had intended- in a "Big Blow" on a single day against Allied heavy bombers. This might have inflicted significant losses and would probably have resulted in lower Luftwaffe casualites than Bodenplatte did. In theory, it might have reduced the strength of Allied bomber raids for a few weeks, with innumerable butterflies.

Having achieved these two things, the Germans might have transferred their armored forces to the East and mounted some sort of spoiling attack against the Soviets. It likely would have done better than the 1945 German attacks, but this is not saying much.

If this strategy were combined with an evacuation of the German forces in the Courland to be used on the Polish front, it might have actually achieved something more significant. But we're still just talking about delaying defeat by, at most, a few months.
 
If this strategy were combined with an evacuation of the German forces in the Courland to be used on the Polish front, it might have actually achieved something more significant. But we're still just talking about delaying defeat by, at most, a few months.

Good point about the Courland Pocket. I'm going to add that to the original question.
 
The battles to destroy these German assets take place in Germany instead of outside its borders. The most obvious effect is more destruction in Germany proper, even worse than in OTL.

The general effect of not committing something today but keeping it for tomorrow is close to zero if other factors don't weigh in, because what delay you can inflict on the enemy tomorrow will have been discounted by letting the enemy advance faster today, by not engaging him today.
That said as a general rule, it would apply more in the East than in the West. That is because by the time of Wacht am Rhein, the Western Allies were pretty much ready to sit the winter out; but in the East, the Soviets had this annoying habit of attacking in the dead of winter.
This might lead to the Soviets being farther into Germany by the time of the final battle, than they were in OTL.

On the other side, there was a good practical reason to launch the offensive in December: bad weather for flying. Husband the resources, employ them at the time of the Allies' choosing, and Peiper will be moving under continuous Jabo attention.

All in all, the delay would be around one month. Not enough for the A-bomb. But enough for some postwar effects, with greater devastation in Germany (less in Budapest, something the Hungarians will be happy for), and the Soviets still withdrawing to their allocated occupation zone – but after having combed a greater than OTL additional area. Maybe they also get two or three more German scientists. Good for them.

The above assumes a continued balanced approach to defense. Things change if one front is bolstered at the expense of the other, but that would be an additional POD.



 
Top