WI: No Battle of Myriokephalon

What if the Emperor Manuel had managed to get the Turks to attack Turks attack at plain of Philomelion like he had hoped to and defeated them as his grandfather had, avoiding having to go into the mountain passes and the Ambush that saw the Romans defeated?
 
I doubt a great deal will change.

The primary result of Myriokephalon was to seriously dent the hitherto irrepressible self-confidence of Manuel I, and to discourage him from making further serious campaigns: but given that by the late 1170s the Emperor was an old man by medieval standards, this would certainly have happened at some point anyway. Even if there's no Myriokephalon, Manuel's most unlikely to be campaigning in the field for much longer.

There'll be little butterflies, of course, and little butterflies can flap big wings. If you have a butterfly that gives Manuel another three or four years of life then you're obviously going to change a lot, but a victory at Myriokephalon is not going to guarantee this.
 
I doubt a great deal will change.

The primary result of Myriokephalon was to seriously dent the hitherto irrepressible self-confidence of Manuel I, and to discourage him from making further serious campaigns: but given that by the late 1170s the Emperor was an old man by medieval standards, this would certainly have happened at some point anyway. Even if there's no Myriokephalon, Manuel's most unlikely to be campaigning in the field for much longer.

There'll be little butterflies, of course, and little butterflies can flap big wings. If you have a butterfly that gives Manuel another three or four years of life then you're obviously going to change a lot, but a victory at Myriokephalon is not going to guarantee this.

Well- Manuel might have been old, but before he died he still planned to take part in conquest of Levant. Quite energetic old man ;) Last but not least, while it'd likely not bring total reconquest of Anatolia, he would most likely break remaining Turkish states and grab at least some new lands.

After all Manuel died 4 years after Myriokephalon due to hunting. In Your own TL Isaac don't get sick thanks to similar action ;)
 
Would victory or no defeat at the Battle of Myriokephalon give Manny a boost in legitimacy toward the end of his reign, thereby helping his son with the succession?
 
Would victory or no defeat at the Battle of Myriokephalon give Manny a boost in legitimacy toward the end of his reign, thereby helping his son with the succession?

Manny's son's problem is less dad's legitimacy and more that Little Al is all of twelve or so.

That's just too good an opportunity for an ambitious man, and Randy Andy was no Romanus Lecapenus.

A pity, someone like that might actually have been the best sort of emperor to take the reins post-Manuel.


@ Mixxer5:

I am very much less than confident that even a decisive victory (tactically speaking) would break the Turks outright. If Manuel occupies Iconium/Konya, he's still only into the old Anatolikon theme - there's a great deal remaining at best undecided.


Having the Byzantine reconquering tide not checked is a something - the borders did shift westward (more from the stuff later than the battle itself), but it's a something that would take many years to build on to the point of retaking Anatolia.
 
Would victory or no defeat at the Battle of Myriokephalon give Manny a boost in legitimacy toward the end of his reign, thereby helping his son with the succession?

It had to do with the fact that the kid was 12 and had a regency and Andronikos took advantage of that, so that will most likely still happen if Manuel dies at the same time.
 
@ Mixxer5:

I am very much less than confident that even a decisive victory (tactically speaking) would break the Turks outright. If Manuel occupies Iconium/Konya, he's still only into the old Anatolikon theme - there's a great deal remaining at best undecided.


Having the Byzantine reconquering tide not checked is a something - the borders did shift westward (more from the stuff later than the battle itself), but it's a something that would take many years to build on to the point of retaking Anatolia.

You're right of course, but Rum Sultanate was in bad shape as well- losing Iconium could end really badly. Plus- it'd be some kind of buffer for future.

On the other hand, I think that it'd serve Byzanium better to conquer Sicily instead.
 
You're right of course, but Rum Sultanate was in bad shape as well- losing Iconium could end really badly. Plus- it'd be some kind of buffer for future.

On the other hand, I think that it'd serve Byzanium better to conquer Sicily instead.

"the sultanate of Rum" is not the same as "the Turks", though. You could knock it out entirely and while still having half of Anatolia to retake.
 
"the sultanate of Rum" is not the same as "the Turks", though. You could knock it out entirely and while still having half of Anatolia to retake.

Yes, of course- but of all beyliks that were created after fall of Rum only Ottomans managed to rise to power (and maybe Karaman). Fall of Rum changes very much- already in OTL there were internal fight for power (i Rum), so it's quite possible, that Turks would be too occupied to expand against Byzantium.

Finally- if 4th Crusade isn't butterflied away, Nicean and Trebizondian empire are on much better position fighting small beyliks rather than big sultanate and most likely they have more territories.
 
Yes, of course- but of all beyliks that were created after fall of Rum only Ottomans managed to rise to power (and maybe Karaman). Fall of Rum changes very much- already in OTL there were internal fight for power (i Rum), so it's quite possible, that Turks would be too occupied to expand against Byzantium.

What do the little beyliks of Western Anatolia in the early 1300s have to do with the Turks of Eastern Anatolia in the 1170-80s?

They're still strong enough to harry the frontiers and hold up reconquest, even if they can't expand into Byzantium.

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/media/677

Taking the green area would take some serious campaigning in its own right, and that leaves with the part of Anatolia not Sejluk ruled at all (as of 1176).

Is it a dire threat? No. But its not reconquest of Anatolia by the end of the 1180s either.
 
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