WI: No Barbarossa?

In June 1941, Nazi Germany invaded the USSR and effectively doomed themselves. What would have happened to the war if the Nazis decided "This ain't worth it", and left the Soviet Union alone, focusing instead on Southern Europe and North Africa?
 
Then its not the Nazi's.

There's the whole lebensraum and all the jazz in Mein Kampf that wasn't just idle banter and the 'hey what if?' musings over a pint or two. It was a crystal clear manifesto. And if the Germans delay, then the Soviets are only going to get stronger. Also, what Southern Europe? They controlled Greece and many of the other nations in that area were friendly allies.

North Africa still requires a navy, which the Germans don't have and it might piss the Italians off.
 

Deleted member 1487

Stalin says здравствуйте with a large number of T34s a year or two later.
I'm not so sure that the Soviets would start a war. I think Stalin anticipated a Nazi invasion at some point, but wasn't planning on invading himself, especially when the trade deals were helping develop the Soviet economy. He probably would if he figured he could do it cheaply as Nazi Germany was collapsing from a long drawn out war, but he was not the guy to try and pay 'full price' for conquest.

Then its not the Nazi's.

There's the whole lebensraum and all the jazz in Mein Kampf that wasn't just idle banter and the 'hey what if?' musings over a pint or two. It was a crystal clear manifesto. And if the Germans delay, then the Soviets are only going to get stronger.
There was serious efforts to make a longer term alliance work, but Hitler was not willing to tolerate hard ball negotiations, which led to the effort falling apart. It is possible to imagine a situation where Stalin is a bit less aggressive during the negotiations and getting a deal, which would prevent Barbarossa, but it would be tough to pull off. The only way though Hitler wasn't going to invade was if the Soviet Axis entry negotiations actually played out and the USSR entered and joined the war against the UK.
 
I'm not so sure that the Soviets would start a war. I think Stalin anticipated a Nazi invasion at some point, but wasn't planning on invading himself, especially when the trade deals were helping develop the Soviet economy. He probably would if he figured he could do it cheaply as Nazi Germany was collapsing from a long drawn out war, but he was not the guy to try and pay 'full price' for conquest.

Um... Stalin was more than happy to break however many eggs it took to make the omlet he desired, and as long as Germany exists they are a large existential threat that is very, very expensive to check as well as being allied with the Japanese. Meanwhile, if you take them down you dominate the entire Eurasian continent.
 

Deleted member 1487

Um... Stalin was more than happy to break however many eggs it took to make the omlet he desired, and as long as Germany exists they are a large existential threat that is very, very expensive to check as well as being allied with the Japanese. Meanwhile, if you take them down you dominate the entire Eurasian continent.
If. Stalin was quite paranoid about engaging in a war with a nation he thought was too powerful. That and running the risk of uniting Europe against him.
 
This one of best proposals for Nazi Germany. They don't loose 10s of thousand people at East, plus not squandering war material there (tanks, guns, aricraft, fuel, ammo), all while trading hi-tech goodies for Soviet raw materials.
BoB 2.0 in starts in May 1941.
 
Stalin was quite paranoid about engaging in a war with a nation he thought was too powerful. That and running the risk of uniting Europe against him

See the second half of your statement. The best way to insure Europe is going to be united against you is to sit back and twidle your thumbs while a man who's built up his career condemning your ideology and everything it stands for and actively declaring it the goal of Germany to claim your lands methodically takes out every other independent force on the continent and subjecting it to his will. Stalin wasen't stupid.
 
If war with Russia were put off for a year or two then I'd expect Hitler to commit the forces necessary to finish off the British in North Africa and the Middle East. He came close to doing it as it was and if he could send a few more panzer divisions to Rommel, escorted by the full weight of the Luftwaffe, he could have won handily. Then with the Mediterranean an Axis lake and a supply of oil coming in, he'd be in much better shape with the showdown with Stalin finally came.
 

Deleted member 1487

See the second half of your statement. The best way to insure Europe is going to be united against you is to sit back and twidle your thumbs while a man who's built up his career condemning your ideology and everything it stands for and actively declaring it the goal of Germany to claim your lands methodically takes out every other independent force on the continent and subjecting it to his will. Stalin wasen't stupid.
I'd read about OTL if I were you.
 
I'd read about OTL if I were you.

Did it occur to you that Stalin isen't making his decisions in 2019, and that if the Soviets aren't putting pressure on Germany they have essentially 9 times the resources to dedicate to putting down the British as they did IOTL. And once that British have been compelled to return to normal diplomatic relations with Germany, the Axis now has open access to purchase resources from the French and British Empire (France in particular can have the cost of those imports leveraged against the occupation costs and reperations they owe to Germany, especially if the Germans will sweeten the deal by offering to start phasing back in administration in the Occupation zone in exchange for contributions to the buildup in the East). Do you honestly think a war after that has happened will, from the position of where Stalin sits at the time, look like a better option than hitting the Germans before they can concentrate and marshal the resources of Europe and aim it at your heart? Stalin did not expect a peace that could last forever.
 
I'd read about OTL if I were you.

Stalin actually made out pretty well from OTL. He went from an international pariah to one of only two states that could claim to be a superpower. Sure, he broke a lot of eggs, some of which he probably didn't have to, but dang if he didn't get a big omellet out of it.
 
See the second half of your statement. The best way to insure Europe is going to be united against you is to sit back and twidle your thumbs while a man who's built up his career condemning your ideology and everything it stands for and actively declaring it the goal of Germany to claim your lands methodically takes out every other independent force on the continent and subjecting it to his will. Stalin wasen't stupid.

Rather ignores that Britain is still at war with Germany (and later Japan) and America is bound to get sucked in. A Germany already committed against those two powers isn't in any position to threaten Stalin. I don't entirely rule out the possibility of Stalin jumping Germany in 1943 or so, but it's more his style to let the Americans and British do the bloody work of beating Germany to a pulp and then reaping the rewards at minimal cost.
 
I agree with those that think Stalin would wait until the allies retun to the European mainland to make a move and ofcourse the T-34 hordes spoken of would be T-34M variants and not the OTL kind
 
In June 1941, Nazi Germany invaded the USSR and effectively doomed themselves. What would have happened to the war if the Nazis decided "This ain't worth it", and left the Soviet Union alone, focusing instead on Southern Europe and North Africa?

The USSR is the only place that Germany can find the raw materials and food supplies it needs to escape the trap its created for itself. Nazi Germany could barely sustain Rommel's forces IOTL, the shipping doesn't exist to supply a massive drive in the Middle East. This doesn't even factor in the ideological imperatives that reinforce the strategic reasons for attacking the USSR. That Barbarossa failed doesn't mean there was a better option available.
 
Rather ignores that Britain is still at war with Germany (and later Japan) and America is bound to get sucked in. A Germany already committed against those two powers isn't in any position to threaten Stalin. I don't entirely rule out the possibility of Stalin jumping Germany in 1943 or so, but it's more his style to let the Americans and British do the bloody work of beating Germany to a pulp and then reaping the rewards at minimal cost.

Are you suggesting that is Germany can dedicate even half the resources they put into Barbarossa into attacking the British position and has a free flow of trade from the East because Stalin won't start a war, as the claim I was countering specifically stated, Britain would be in a position to remotely as well continue the fight, especially if their diplomatic overtures to the USSR get a blatent "no"? Especially since a German army with no offensive intentions sent to want the border would be able to use more resource efficent defensive tactics? London will either have to basically begger itself to Uncle Sam or maitain some semblence of influence by reaching accommodations with Hitler, who has no desire to destroy the British Empire.
 
The USSR is the only place that Germany can find the raw materials and food supplies it needs to escape the trap its created for itself. Nazi Germany could barely sustain Rommel's forces IOTL, the shipping doesn't exist to supply a massive drive in the Middle East. This doesn't even factor in the ideological imperatives that reinforce the strategic reasons for attacking the USSR. That Barbarossa failed doesn't mean there was a better option available.

Raw materials were available from the Soviets not to mention that rubber and other resources could be bought from Japan transiting the USSR as for Rommel and shipping well you have Malta sitting on the main supply route, that could be reduced if there was no need to send all those aircraft to the east.
 
Hitler and Stalin trusted one another about as far as either could sling a tank. And neither would even bother. They both knew that their little friendship with the Molotov pact was only a timer extension.

Yes the Nazi's could have won and someone could write the wank of a TL that would follow. IF you ignore Mein Kampf and the Nazi's insane racial ideology. Everything about it was 'Kill the Jews, kill the communists, get Lebensraum in the East.' And Hitler, as may have been noted was a bit of a true beliver in this book one should note. As was many of his most devoted followers and they'd been priming the Germans for years with the propaganda and education about the subhumans and untermensch. And where were these subhumans and Untermensch....dingdingding! Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrussia! As was written in Mein Kamfp.

So yes, we can have our nazi-wank dejour (it must be that time of the week again) only if you ignore and remove a huge chunk of what made the Nazi's, the fucking Nazi's. Hitlers bonkers mind was never on Africa, he only got suckered into that because Benny the Moose was bloody useless. His eyes, his thoughts his very being was focused on the east. He hated the Russians, hated Communists, hated the people of the Baltic states and Ukrane and wanted to see them 'gone' and 'removed'. So yes, this MIGHT be possible, if you take the Nazi out of the Nazi's and make Hitler rational, and give him foresight/hindsight.
 
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Hitler and Stalin trusted one another about as far as either could sling a tank. And neither would even bother. They both knew that their little friendship with the Molotov pact was only a timer extension.

Yes the Nazi's could have won and someone could write the wank of a TL that would follow. IF you ignore Mein Kampf and the Nazi's insane racial ideology. Everything about it was 'Kill the Jews, kill the communists, get Lebensraum in the East.' And Hitler, as may have been noted was a bit of a true beliver in this book one should note. As was many of his most devoted followers and they'd been priming the Germans for years with the propaganda and education about the subhumans and untermensch. And where were these subhumans and Untermensch....dingdingding! Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrussia! As was written in Mein Kamfp.

So yes, we can have our nazi-wank dejour (it must be that time of the week again) only if you ignore and remove a huge chunk of what made the Nazi's, the fucking Nazi's.

Must be why the germans threw themselves into a frenzied attack on the Soviets the minute they met in Poland ... Oh wait...
 
Yes, holding action. And that was a pre-agreed on murder of Poland and because Hitler wasn't retarded, he was insane, but not an idiot as you've just had France and the UK declare war on you over Poland. Or did you forget that?

The truth is the Soviets supplied the Germans with a huge amount of food and other resources, that were being paid for. If the Germans don't go to war in the east, then they are in debt and their econimy would collapse upon itself as it was dependent on conquest and 'guest workers' to sustain itself.

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Was fucking accurate in respect to their views on one another. But it was convenient at the time to work together to kill Poland off (a goal of them both) but both Hitler and Stalin knew the axe would fall from one or the other eventually.

But again if you want to ignore what hitler said and did with your wank...well...you do you. But you're gonna need a damn better reason than having the Germans change everything about themselves in this period and their goals/thoughts on Russia other than "Because!"

Also as (again going off what Hitler wrote) Hitler wanted his struggle with the Russians and the evils of the Judeo-Bolsheviks as they called it, its not something you can put off. The Soviets were rebuliding their armed forces slowly and if you put off even a year, then you're going to run into T-34's en mass with your Panzer III still being your main tank. (The Panzer III being the main German tank of the time that fought tanks, the Panzer IV was an infantry support tank really with its short 75 and without actually running into the T-34 beforehand there's no driver's there to go and develop anything beyond what they had without reason, so the main tank of the Heer would have been the Panzer III with the long barreled 50mm gun.)

Oh! And the Soviets were fortifying the Molotov and Stalin lines. You know..for no reason what so ever...so give them a year to also get better prepared too. Basically if the Germans hold off, then it just makes the one power in the region that can threaten them in a straight up slugfest, the Soviets, stronger.
 
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